2009 win projection – ZiPS
Dan Szymborski released his ZiPS projections for the Pirates yesterday, and they are not pretty. ZiPS is much less optimistic about the team’s chances this year than CHONE. I created a new projected wins spreadsheet, substituting OBP, SLG and ERA numbers from ZiPS in place of the projections from CHONE. Fielding projections are still from CHONE, and base running value is still based on last year’s Baseball Prospectus numbers. Projected playing time remains the same.
Based on ZiPS, the Pirates are projected to win 60 games, well down from the 71 wins I ended up with using the CHONE projections. The have just a 29% chance of avoiding 100 losses, and the chance of finishing .500 is only 0.0315%. Ouch.
Pirates ink four arbitration-eligible players; Maholm, McLouth remain unsigned
The Pirate signed four of their arbitration eligible players to one-year deals today. Adam LaRoche will receive $7.05 million and John Grabow will be paid $2.3 million. Each is in his final year before free agency. Zach Duke will earn $2.2 million in his first year of arbitration, while Tyler Yates receives $1.3 million in his second.
Some people are already griping about the salaries for LaRoche and Duke. I expected LaRoche to get a little more, so I am happy with this deal. It is not a great value or anything, but $7 million is pretty much what he is worth. Zach Duke is severely underrated by most fans. He was virtually league average in FIP and tRA last season, both defense-independent statistics. He was worth about two wins, which would warrant over $8 million in free agency. I cringe any time someone brings up the possibility of signing a free agent pitcher such as Jon Garland, Braden Looper or Oliver Perez. Duke was better than each of them in 2008. The Pirates’ defense simply makes him look much worse than he really is.
The team was unable to agree to terms with Paul Maholm or Nate McLouth, the remaining two players eligible for arbitration. Each player is seeking $3.8 million in his first year of eligibility, with the Pirates offering McLouth $2.75 million and Maholm $2.65 million. These seem like pretty large discrepancies, and obviously they are much bigger than we would hope to see. But there is still plenty of time before the hearings, so I don’t think we should be too worried yet. The last thing we need is an ugly contract dispute with one of our core young players.
Pirate Prospect #18 – Jordy Mercer
I am counting down my personal list of the top 25 Pirate prospects. You can follow the countdown here, or by clicking on the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the site header.
Date of Birth: 8/27/1986
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 175 pounds
Bats/Throws: R/R
Position: SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2008 (Oklahoma State University)
Jordy Mercer had a breakout season in his junior year at Oklahoma State, hitting .330/.373/.542. After the Pirates took him in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft, he went briefly to State College. With 4th round pick Chase D’Arnaud needing somewhere to play, the Pirates promoted Mercer to Hickory. He likely was not ready for that level, and struggled at the plate. However, Wilbur Miller reports that he improved after getting settled in a bit.
The biggest issue moving forward will likely be Mercer’s lack of walks. He never walked much in college, and he walked only 13 times in his first 233 professional plate appearances. He has not displayed the ability to hit for a high enough average to counteract those low walk rates. This is a skill he must improve upon as he develops. He is big for a shortstop, but he should be good enough defensively to stay at the position. The Pirates selected three shortstops in the first seven rounds of the 2008 draft (Mercer, D’Arnaud and 7th round pick Benji Gonzalez), and added Jarek Cunningham in the 18th round. With Brian Friday and Brian Bixler in the upper levels of the system, the shortstop competition is going to be fierce in the coming years. Nobody is the clear leader right now and, although a few may switch positions down the road, playing time at short will be at a premium throughout the organization.
Here is a scouting video of Mercer.
Expected arrival in Pittsburgh: 2013
