PIRATES PROSPECTSPITTSBURGH PIRATES MINOR LEAGUE NEWS, TRANSACTIONS, AND ARTICLES

I am counting down my personal list of the top 25 Pirate prospects. You can follow the countdown here, or by clicking on the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the site header.

Date of Birth: 8/27/1986

Height: 6’3″

Weight: 175 pounds

Bats/Throws: R/R

Position: SS

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2008 (Oklahoma State University)

Jordy Mercer had a breakout season in his junior year at Oklahoma State, hitting .330/.373/.542. After the Pirates took him in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft, he went briefly to State College. With 4th round pick Chase D’Arnaud needing somewhere to play, the Pirates promoted Mercer to Hickory. He likely was not ready for that level, and struggled at the plate. However, Wilbur Miller reports that he improved after getting settled in a bit.

The biggest issue moving forward will likely be Mercer’s lack of walks. He never walked much in college, and he walked only 13 times in his first 233 professional plate appearances. He has not displayed the ability to hit for a high enough average to counteract those low walk rates. This is a skill he must improve upon as he develops. He is big for a shortstop, but he should be good enough defensively to stay at the position. The Pirates selected three shortstops in the first seven rounds of the 2008 draft (Mercer, D’Arnaud and 7th round pick Benji Gonzalez), and added Jarek Cunningham in the 18th round. With Brian Friday and Brian Bixler in the upper levels of the system, the shortstop competition is going to be fierce in the coming years. Nobody is the clear leader right now and, although a few may switch positions down the road, playing time at short will be at a premium throughout the organization.

Here is a scouting video of Mercer.

Expected arrival in Pittsburgh: 2013

I am counting down my personal list of the top 25 Pirate prospects. You can follow the countdown here, or by clicking on the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the site header.

Date of Birth:8/20/1985

Height: 6’3″

Weight: 225 pounds

Bats/Throws: R/R

Position: 3B

Drafted: 9th Round, 2008 (Oklahoma State University)

Matt Hague showed good plate discipline and some pop in his college career. He walked in well over 10% of his plate appearances, and his K/BB ratio was virtually 1/1. He also consistently posted an ISO above .200. The Pirates selected him in the ninth round of the 2008 draft and sent him to State College. After a brief stint there, he was promoted to Hickory. All along the way, he continued to hit well. He put up a .321/.384/.470 line in 242 plate appearances with Hickory, with 20 walks and 28 strikeouts. At 23, Hague must move through the system pretty quickly to maintain his prospect status. His strong plate discipline bodes well for his future, and his low strikeout totals indicate that he should be able to maintain a consistent average. In an organization with little power potential, Hague is someone to keep an eye on as he approaches Pittsburgh.

Defense could be an issue for Hague moving forward. He struggled at third with Hickory, and may need to move to first or a corner outfield position down the road. He will likely find playing time at third scarce with the organization’s sudden depth at that position. Hague would be much more valuable if he can remain at the hot corner long-term. It is questionable whether his bat would carry him at a less challenging position.

Expected arrival in Pittsburgh: 2012

I am counting down my personal list of the top 25 Pirate prospects. You can follow the countdown here, or by clicking on the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the site header.

Date of Birth: 2/12/1989

Height: 5’11”

Weight: 180 pounds

Bats/Throws: L/L

Position: P

Signed: 2007 (El Salvador)

Nelson Pereira made his first appearance in the United States in 2008, pitching very well in Bradenton after two solid seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League. The 19-year-old struck out 46, walked ten and allowed only three home runs in 50 innings. He made six starts out of his 13 appearances. Pereira is part of a rare breed – actual Latin American prospects signed during the Dave Littlefield era. He is obviously a long way from PNC Park, but his numbers have been exceptional thus far.  With the Pirates’ farm system being so thin on pitching prospects, Pereira could jump up on this list over the next couple years.

Expected arrival in Pittsburgh: 2013

I am counting down my personal list of the top 25 Pirate prospects. You can follow the countdown here, or by clicking on the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the site header.

Date of Birth: 4/28/1986

Height: 6’1″

Weight: 210 pounds

Bats/Throws: R/L

Position: P

Drafted: First Round, 2007 (Clemson University)

And we come to Daniel Moskos. You have to feel for this kid, as he was doomed from the beginning. Even if he were to go on to be a dominant starting pitcher for the Pirates, he would always be remembered as the guy we drafted instead of Matt Wieters. The selection of Moskos had far larger implications than simply being a poor pick, as it was a leading factor in the firing of Dave Littlefield. This was a significant first step in the revamping of the organization, one of the few positives of the Moskos selection. Amid the controversy, it’s easy to forget that there is still a player’s career at stake.

From Baseball America’s 2008 Prospect Handbook:

His fastball and slider are major league pitches, so Moskos will ride the fast track if he remains a reliever. He’ll likely open at high class A Lynchburg, and should reach the majors by no less than 2009.

Well, the Pirates tried Moskos in the rotation in 2008, he had little success and he will not see Pittsburgh in 2009. He struggled mightily, looking little like the pitcher described in the above excerpt. His mechanics were reportedly out of whack, and he was also said to be out of shape. There were whispers right after the draft that his maximum-effort delivery could be an indication that he had already peaked. That is looking more likely as his career progresses. He no longer displays the velocity on his fastball that he was said to possess in college. He is still young, and could rebound in 2009, but it appears that his ceiling is a solid reliever. That’s not exactly what the team needed from its first round draft pick. Thanks, Mr. Littlefield. And good luck, Mr. Moskos. You have a tough road ahead of you.

Expected arrival in Pittsburgh: 2012

Update (1/14/2009, 1:00 PM): I made some adjustments using an updated spreadsheet published by Sky this morning. The new spreadsheet required increased total plate appearances, so I changed the numbers for many of the players. Also, I changed the projected ERA numbers to projected FIP, so that it represents the pitcher’s true talent level. With the adjustments, we are now down to 71 projected wins, which seems much more realistic. Sky also added a feature that calculates the probability of winning X number of games. We have an 88% chance of avoiding 100 losses, a 5% chance to reach .500 and a 0.063% chance of winning 91 games.

Using a spreadsheet published last week by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score, I projected the Pirates 2009 win total. You can check it out here.

I used Sean Smith’s CHONE projections for most of the numbers. For offensive value, I estimated wOBA by plugging the CHONE projections into the formula (OBP*1.75 + SLG)/3. I estimated base running value based on 2008 Equivalent Base Running Runs from Baseball Prospectus. This number includes stolen bases, caught stealing and other base running measurements. I used the 2009 CHONE defensive projections for defensive value.

I am guessing that Andrew McCutchen will join the team around midseason, moving Nate McLouth to left field. I also gave Neil Walker 50 65 plate appearances in a late-season call-up. With the team’s bench up in the air, I estimated the best I could. I also added 137 330 unassigned plate appearances with a .295 OBP and .360 SLG for filler.

I simply used the CHONE innings and ERA FIP projections for pitchers, adjusting IP appropriately. CHONE has Phil Dumatrait as a starter and Ross Ohlendorf as a reliever. With the recent news that Dumatrait’s best shot at pitching this season is in the bullpen, I made him a reliever and gave Ohlendorf some innings as a starter. I increased Ohlendorf’s projected ERA FIP by about a run for his time in the rotation.

After all that, the Pirates come out with about 76 71 wins. I think most would agree that seems a little high. I would say CHONE is too optimistic about the Pirate pitchers, with most of their projected ERA’s below 5.00. I cannot see the pitching being that consistent.

This spreadsheet is a work in progress. Obviously, there are still issues with the roster to clarify. I will adjust it as that becomes clearer. Sky and his readers are also working on ways to improve the spreadsheet, so I may adjust it based on their brainstorming. I plan to redo this with different projection systems throughout the spring, and I would like to use the community projections from Bucs Dugout to see how optimistic the Pirate community is as a whole. I might also do best-case and worst-case scenario spreadsheets. You can check the current spreadsheets by clicking on 2009 Win Projections in the site header.

I also would love to hear feedback from the readers. Let me know if you think some of my methods can be improved, or if you feel my projected playing time is off. I will adjust it as I see fit.

The Pirates signed Craig Monroe to a minor league contract today, including an invite to spring training. Monroe hit .202/.274/.405 in 179 plate appearances with the Twins last year, good for a .291 wOBA. That is slightly below replacement level, although it was an improvement on his .273 wOBA in 2007. Including his slightly below average outfield defense, Monroe has been at or below replacement level in each of the past three years. With his 32nd birthday approaching, he is much more likely to decline than he is to improve.

I am not a fan of this signing at all. Sure, it is only a minor league deal. But there is no reason that we should even be considering bringing him north for the start of the season, even if it is as a backup. Monroe’s O-Swing% has increased each of the past four years, while his contact percentage and line drive percentage have steadily dropped. CHONE projects him to post a .315 wOBA in 2009, the most optimistic of the projections provided by FanGraphs. That might get him back to replacement level. If he makes the team and someone like Steve Pearce (projected .337 wOBA) goes to Indy, I am going to be upset. I hope it will not come to that.