PIRATES PROSPECTSPITTSBURGH PIRATES MINOR LEAGUE NEWS, TRANSACTIONS, AND ARTICLES

As Pirate fans, our focus is currently on the future. The team is likely two seasons away from any clear improvement, and a potential championship club is years away. With that in mind, I wanted to take a futuristic look at an important aspect of the team that often receives little attention: the defense. Let’s start with the outfield.

The Pirates’ defense was near the bottom of the league in 2008, as it has been for the last several years. When the team dealt Jason Bay and Xavier Nady at the trade deadline, they also unloaded two pretty poor fielders. Nate McLouth won a Gold Glove, but virtually every advanced defensive statistic had him well below average among center fielders. I think McLouth was shortchanged a bit by those metrics, but Gold Glove caliber defense is a stretch. He’s probably about average, maybe slightly below. Long story short, the Pirates boasted a pretty lousy defensive outfield in the first half of 2008.

The 2009 outfield will likely consist of Nyjer Morgan in left, McLouth in center, and Brandon Moss in right. Moss is similar in ability to Nady. With younger legs and sturdier hamstrings, he is probably a tad better. With limited space to cover at PNC Park, we’ll say he is about an average fielder. Morgan, despite a weak arm and the occasional bizarre route, is a much better fielder than Bay. His tremendous speed allows him to cover a great deal of ground, which is necessary in the vast left field of PNC Park. That speed will also compensate for his lack of arm strength a bit, as he can get to balls much more quickly. Over the course of a season, replacing Bay with Nyjer is probably a two-win defensive improvement in itself.

The most exciting part is that the outfield should be greatly improved over the next two years. Andrew McCutchen will join the team sometime this season, and Jose Tabata will likely be arriving in 2010. McCutchen will push McLouth to left, and Tabata will switch from center to right when he arrives. That will give the Pirates three outfielders that originally came up as center fielders. That is quite a bit of range to work with.

Further down the road, there is some additional athleticism we can envision wandering around the outfield grass. Robbie Grossman and Wesley Freeman, two highly-touted high school outfielders from the most recent draft, are center fielders with good range. They may find a place in the Pirates’ outfield one day.

Overall, there is an encouraging outlook for the future outfield defense. Next up, the infield.

I have a few disjointed thoughts rolling around in my head as I eat lunch today.

Nady Trade

Remember when the Yankees absolutely stole two of the Pirates’ best players for nothing at the 2008 trade deadline? Let us briefly recap that trade. The Yankees received a 29-year-old fourth outfielder and a 33-year-old LOOGY. The Pirates received three youngish pitchers with question marks and some potential upside, along with a 19-year-old top prospect playing at Double-A. I wonder how much Xavier Nady’s post-trade line of .268/.320/.474 helped the Yankees down the stretch. CHONE projects him to hit .273/.327/.456 in 2009.

Excessive Expectations

From today’s PG:

Almost every time Pedro Alvarez swings his mighty bat around here, the names fly.

Matt Wieters.

Albert Pujols.

Ryan Howard.

Then Manny Sanguillen dropped the big one.

“Pedro Alvarez has Willie Stargell’s swing,” the patriarch of Pirates catchers was saying Thursday. “I played with him a lot of years. I know that swing.”

Wow. Nothing like unnecessary pressure on a guy that has yet to make his first professional appearance. Let’s all take it easy for a while, and let Pedro Alvarez develop into Pedro Alvarez. I’m guessing that will probably be plenty impressive in itself.

Chuck Finder reported today that Andy LaRoche has not keep up with a special exercise regimen, which likely contributed to the back problems he ran into this week. Here is the excerpt from the PBC Blog:

The younger LaRoche was diagnosed with a protruding disk in 2007 and spent much of the next two years doing an exercise regimen patterned strictly to alleviate and prevent further problems. He admitted that he got away from the exercises, though now — after battling spasms and taking anti-inflammatory medication late last week — he is returning to the regimen, he said. He plans to take batting-practice pitches from coaches Monday.

As you might imagine, fans have reacted angrily to the news. But I think this report is being misinterpreted. This does not sound like a situation in which LaRoche was just sitting around relaxing all winter. Here is what I concluded from reading this. LaRoche had a back injury in 2007. His doctors recommended an exercise regimen, which helped ease his discomfort. After being pain free for a certain period, he got away from doing those specific exercises. Now that he is having more pain, and has missed a few days of spring training, he intends to get back to focusing on those exercises. Of course, I have no evidence that this is the case. But I think jumping to the conclusion that he is not a hard worker is a bit unfair. For all we know, he diverted his focus from these special back exercises to spend more time in the cage. I have no idea. We are making too big a deal out of this revelation, just as we did when reports surfaced that Pedro Alvarez was not in great shape. It only took a few weeks for those worries to disappear. I would guess that the same will happen regarding this situation with LaRoche.

The Pirates extended manager John Russell’s contract through 2010 this morning. This gives Russell some stability as he begins his second season at the helm. Said general manager Neal Huntington:

JR met or exceeded expectations in his first year as the Pirates manager. His leadership, knowledge, attention to detail, ability to see the big picture and passion for things being done the right way made him the ideal choice as our manager a year ago and made the decision to pick up his option for 2010 an easy decision. I look forward to working closely for him for years to come as we build a consistent championship caliber organization in Pittsburgh.

The Indians designated Andy Marte for assignment today, giving them ten days to trade him or place him on waivers. Marte is a former top prospect who hit very well against minor league pitching at a young age before falling apart at the major league level. He reached the major leagues at the age of 21 in 2005. Over the past three years, Marte has been about replacement level while receiving sporadic playing time.

Marte may be a good buy-low candidate, and the Pirates may be in the right situation to give him a shot. They have a few open spots on the 25-man roster, where Marte must be placed. The team is not expecting to contend, and they should have an interest in young reclamation projects with some upside. Marte is still just 25, and it is possible that he could suddenly regain the magic from a few years back. The Pirates have been looking for a right-handed option for the bench. Despite his recent struggles, CHONE still projects Marte to post a .324 wOBA. That is nothing spectacular, but it’s not bad for a backup. Combining that with average defense at third would make Marte about a one-win player over 400 plate appearances. That is similar to the value that Eric Hinske projects to provide off the bench.

Marte’s potential upside would be worth giving him a look. Neal Huntington certainly knows Marte well from his time in Cleveland, so we will see if he is thinking the same thing.

Yesterday, Red Sox ownership publicly supported a salary cap for Major League Baseball. This is interesting news, as Boston owns one of the highest payrolls in baseball. Fans of teams like the Pirates seem encouraged by this support from one of the big boys, and are hopeful that this could lead to a fairer salary structure down the road. But would a salary cap really help the Pirates?

One of the most common misconceptions is that a higher major league payroll leads to winning. This is not always the case. To win, a team needs good players, regardless of their salary. The 2008 Rays are a perfect example of how a team made up of inexpensive talent is just as competitive as a team full of costly talent. Yes, the Yankees have a huge advantage over teams like the Rays and the Pirates. With their resources, the Yankees can afford to make mistakes that would cripple the Pirates for years. If CC Sabathia’s arm falls off this summer, the Yankees will simply shrug and pick up a new pitcher next year. That is a foreign situation to Pittsburgh fans. However, the current salary structure actually favors lower spending teams. A team controls a player’s rights for the first six years of his career. This usually occurs when a player is in his mid to late twenties. A player’s peak is generally between the ages of 26 and 29. That means that when a player reaches free agency, he is usually past his prime. When the Yankees sign a 30-year-old free agent to a large contract, they are often paying for past performance.

The key to winning is not the major league payroll; it is the talent on the team. Bringing impact talent into the league is a much healthier approach to winning than buying that talent right before it begins to decline. Thus, the way to win is to draft well and properly develop the players that come from the draft. This is where a salary cap hurts the Pirates. Right now, low revenue teams like the Pirates have one area of talent acquisition where they can compete financially with big spenders like the Yankees. That is the amateur draft. In 2008, the Pirates were among the top teams in draft expenditures. If payrolls are capped at somewhere around $140 million, the Yankees suddenly have an extra $70 million laying around. If they sink only $10 million of that into the draft, the Pirates cannot compete. They will have lost one of their largest advantages.

When a salary cap is being discussed, the topic of a salary floor usually surfaces as well. This is particularly true in Pittsburgh, which is understandable. Ownership has kept the payroll low for years, despite reports that the organization is making a large annual profit. But a salary floor also would hurt the Pirates more than it would help them, especially in their current situation. The team is rebuilding. Consequently, management is spending little at the major league level while pouring resources into the draft, player development, and international scouting. If the Pirates were forced to add another $20 million or so to the major league payroll, the rebuilding process would suffer greatly. For one, it would take resources away from areas that are much more important right now. In addition, it would force the team to add free agents that may not fit with the current roster and/or long-term plan, simply to meet the payroll requirement. In essence, it removes financial flexibility from the type of franchise that needs that flexibility the most.

Baseball’s current economic system is not perfect by any means, but a salary cap would not solve anything. In the end, it would give high-revenue teams a huge advantage in acquiring amateur talent. The draft was originally instituted to protect against just that situation. A salary cap may help the Red Sox, as it would bring the Yankees payroll down to a realistic level. But it would put the Pirates, Rays and other low-revenue teams at a major disadvantage. If we want to improve competitive balance, increased revenue sharing is the way to go.

I am counting down my personal list of the top 25 Pirate prospects. You can follow the countdown here, or by clicking on the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the site header.

Date of Birth: 9/18/1984

Height: 6’3″

Weight: 215 pounds

Bats/Throws: L/L

Position: P

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2005 – Cubs (Pima CC – Arizona)

Two years ago, Donald Veal was a top prospect in the Chicago Cubs organization. Despite a high walk rate, Veal dominated A-ball in 2006. He struck out 174, posted a 2.15 ERA and allowed only 91 hits in 155 innings. However, he also walked 82 on the season. In 2007, his control worsened, his strikeouts decreased slightly, and his overall numbers took a hit as a result. He still struck out an impressive 131 in his 130.1 innings, but he allowed 81 runners to reach base via walk. He repeated Double-A this past season, and his numbers were even worse. With a similarly poor walk rate, his strikeout numbers dropped considerably. Now 24, Veal seems to have hit a wall at the Double-A level.

The electric stuff that Veal possessed a couple years ago has reportedly deserted him. His stamina seems to have dropped, which contributed to his move to the bullpen. Baseball America had the following to say about Veal in their 2009 Prospect Handbook:

Two years later, he looks like an entirely different pitcher. He’ll still touch 94 mph with his heater, but he usually works at 89-90 and doesn’t maintain his velocity for more than a couple of innings. His curveball is usually a sweepy pitch with little power and only occasional spin, and he has trouble repeating his changeup.

Despite his issues, the Pirates selected Veal in the Rule 5 Draft in December 2008 in hopes he could rebound. He will have to remain on the major league roster for the entire 2009 season, a tall task for a pitcher with serious control issues. The lack of experience above Double-A does not help either. However, if he does figure things out, he would be a great addition to the organization. New pitching coach Joe Kerrigan will undoubtedly be working closely with Veal during the season, which could be very beneficial to the young left-hander. He has gone through some personal issues in the past couple years, which have unquestionably been a distraction. It’s possible that has contributed to his poor showing. This year will be huge for Veal. With another poor season, he will likely fall off most top prospect lists.

Expected arrival in Pittsburgh: 2009

Here is a video of Veal warming up before a game in May 2007.