The MLB Trade Deadline is one week away.
We’re now in the fifth season of the rebuild under Pittsburgh Pirates General Manager Ben Cherington. I think it’s fair to be critical of certain aspects of the way he’s assembled this team. The biggest point of critique comes from the offense.
The Pirates currently rank with one of the worst offenses in the game. They are 27th in both wOBA (.294) and wRC+ (88), while also finishing bottom five in the league in average (.233), on-base percentage (.300), and slugging (.370). On Tuesday night, in an important game against the division rival St. Louis Cardinals, the Pirates sent their rookie phenom pitcher Paul Skenes to the mound. Skenes allowed two runs in 8.1 innings, but only received one run of support from the offense.
That start is a microcosm of the situation in Pittsburgh.
The offense under Cherington has been a problem, and the problem extends all the way throughout the minor league system. The pitching, on the other hand, has been the strength of this team, and that strength also extends throughout the system.
As a group, the Pirates pitching staff ranks 12th in ERA (3.82), and ninth in FIP (3.81). The starting rotation looks like it could be a dangerous playoff group, ranking fourth in ERA (3.51) and eighth in FIP (3.88). The bullpen has struggled with a 4.29 ERA that ranks 23rd, but the talent shines through with a 3.70 FIP that ranks tenth.
Cherington has assembled one of the worst offenses in the league, but one of the best pitching staffs. Contenders are fueled by strong pitching, and the combined result from the Pirates has them sitting 51-50 on the morning of July 24th, 1.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race, and seven games back in the NL Central.
Above all, Cherington has assembled a team that can not only contend in 2024, but a Pirates team that looks like they could contend for the rest of this decade.
It’s important to keep that perspective.
It doesn’t matter how the Pirates got here. What matters is that they’re here right now, playing so well that baseball fever is back in Pittsburgh. What matters is that they’re serious contenders, who could use upgrades in the next week.
The fact that those upgrades so obviously reside on the offensive side makes it easy to critique the job done. Anyone with an internet connection can go to FanGraphs and see what the Pirates clearly need.
Hitting.
That makes the job for Cherington simple going forward. In the next week, the Pirates will need to upgrade their offense. They don’t need to match the elite production of their pitching staff, but they do need to provide more support for those pitchers.
The right moves can put this team in the playoffs, which is where this pitching staff can shine.
The challenge is that the Pirates aren’t just set to contend in 2024. They’re set to contend for years. They should be shifting their approach to focus on winning in the majors, above retaining long-term value. However, there should be a balance struck to maintain the long-term positive outlook, rather than going all-in this season. The all-in effect should be a gradual process from this point, extending several seasons.
That balance starts with the question: Which prospects should they make untouchable?
The Untouchables
I’m going to start by saying that I don’t think any prospect in this minor league system should be untouchable. In the right deal, any player could be justifiably traded for an upgrade.
I’ll also say that I’m hoping this is a year where the Pirates disappoint fans of other teams.
For so many years when the Pirates were sellers, a trade return would come back with Pirates fans finding that the other team’s top prospects were off-limits in the deal. It would be a great thing if the Pirates could upgrade their offense this year, while leaving other fanbases lamenting that they couldn’t land right-handed pitcher Bubba Chandler or infielder Termarr Johnson.
If there was an untouchable in this system, I think Chandler would be it.
Baseball America released their latest top 100 update yesterday, with Chandler ranked 57th overall as the Pirates’ top prospect. The right-hander gets a future closer label from evaluators, but I think that’s looking like a floor.
Chandler has the potential for elite stuff, with more upside than any pitcher in this system not named Paul Skenes. The fastball from the 2021 third rounder sits 97-98, working well in the top of the zone. He’s worked over the last year to add a sharp slider with tilt that drops off in the bottom of the zone, playing off the fastball. He’s also been working on a changeup this year, which shows promise, but lacks consistency in the execution.
What I like about Chandler is his drive. He’s honest about where he’s struggled, and he’s always looking to improve. He’s shown the ability to improve his secondary stuff, along with some recent improvements in control, and I don’t think he’s going to stop improving any time soon. He looks like a guy who could arrive in the majors in 2025, and spend the rest of this decade as part of an elite rotation that will turn the Pirates into a powerhouse if they can figure out the offense.
The Pirates need offense, which puts Termarr Johnson on a list of potential untouchables.
The top hitting prospect in the system has been on a run lately, with an active 16-game hitting streak in High-A Greensboro. This doesn’t include a hit in the MLB Future’s Game, where Chandler closed out the win with a scoreless inning for the National League.
Johnson’s hitting streak dates back to June 27th, and he’s batting .373/.468/.567 during that time, with three homers in 80 plate appearances. His hitting dates back another six weeks. He homered on May 18th, and since that point he is batting .301/.413/.511 with nine homers in 226 plate appearances. Those are the results you want to see from a 20-year-old who was taken as the best pure hitter in the 2022 draft, and who has spent his last two seasons developing his power approach.
If you go on Twitter, you’ll find Pirates fans treating Chandler and Johnson like they’re casino chips, just trying to find a table to spend the money with the hopes of getting a big win. This system has depth, and that should be an advantage over the next week.
The Pirates have a plethora of pitching prospects in the upper levels who could also lead to an elite rotation in the future. Braxton Ashcraft, Thomas Harrington, and Hunter Barco are all top six prospects in this system, who could all reach the majors in the next year or two, with above-average potential. Any one of these three could be traded to headline a deal. The depth of potential MLB starting pitchers in this system extends to the double-digits.
I don’t think the Pirates should sell the farm to find an offensive upgrade in 2024. They have enough depth, and enough of an offensive need, that they could get a short-term upgrade while still maintaining the best prospects for their long-term future.
The MLB Needs
When you’ve got one of the worst offenses in the game, it should be easy to upgrade the team effort across multiple positions. The Pirates could sell the farm for one big bat, or they could make smaller trades to lift the tide across several positions. Here is how each position stands today:
Catcher
The Pirates have Joey Bart as their starter right now, with Yasmani Grandal playing in a backup role. Grandal has struggled on both sides of the ball, looking like he’s at the end of a very productive career, with his production on both sides clearly in the past. Bart, on the other hand, has gotten a fresh chance as a former second overall pick who has yet to click in the majors.
The trade market offers Danny Jansen of the Blue Jays, along with former Pirate Elias Diaz of the Rockies. Both would be an upgrade over Grandal, but Diaz would be an upgrade over Bart. Both would be short-term rentals, making $2 million or less this season, and eligible for free agency in the offseason.
If the Pirates want offense, Diaz would be the best choice. He brings the defense that they want out of Grandal, while also bringing a bat that would pair well with Bart. The Pirates could platoon Bart and Diaz, which would set them up for a strategy next year of having two starting catching options once Endy Rodriguez returns.
First Base
Rowdy Tellez rubbed some people the wrong way at the start of the season when he admonished Pirates fans from booing a bad start from hometown closer David Bednar. I was part of the group that didn’t like the reaction from Tellez. I don’t think the fans were booing Bednar as much as they were booing a team that has continuously disappointed their fan base.
Part of the disappointment comes from going the cheap route for team needs, rather than making additions that can provide the fans comfort when they’re spending hard-earned money purchasing tickets.
First base was a need, and the Pirates went with Tellez at $3.2 million this year, continuing their quest for value. So, when he started off as one of the worst hitters in the game during the first two months, it only exasperated the outrage against him.
Tellez has turned things around since the start of June. He’s batting .319/.357/.560 with seven homers in 129 plate appearances. He ranks among the best hitting first basemen in the game since the start of June.
The start of the season was an example of how Tellez is a great teammate, willing to stand up for any of the guys in the clubhouse, even if criticizing a long-tortured fan base on their reactions was ill-advised. Since the start of June, Tellez has been everything the Pirates had hoped to get on the field from their value signing, and as a result, they shouldn’t be looking for help at first base.
Second Base
One of the best upgrades the Pirates have made internally this year has been the promotion of Nick Gonzales to the majors. Arriving on May 10th, Gonzales rates around average with his overall offensive output among second basemen. He has also shown an ability to be a clutch hitter in important situations.
The clutch gene from Gonzales is backed up in the numbers. He ranks first among all second basemen in the FanGraphs Clutch rankings since he arrived in the majors, and it’s not close.
The Pirates entered the season with a few internal options for second base, and Gonzales has stepped up to lock down this position, and remove it from the list of team needs.
Shortstop
There is no hitter in this system who has more upside than Oneil Cruz. In fact, very few hitters in the game have more upside than the Pirates’ 6′ 7″ shortstop. He hasn’t been consistent with that hitting, but Cruz is locked in this month.
During the month of July, Cruz is batting .321/.371/.589 with three homers. He’s been hitting for power all season, with some of the hardest hit balls in the Statcast era. He hasn’t been consistently getting non-homer hits or getting on base. That’s changing this month, and hopefully it’s a sign of what is to come.
The fact that the Pirates are getting offensive production from shortstop makes it easier to upgrade this team. The defense from Cruz at the position is below-average, but passable. The offense is above-average for shortstops, allowing the Pirates to focus their trade efforts on bat-first positions.
Third Base
This has been a disappointing year at the plate for Ke’Bryan Hayes. He’s been dealing with a back injury, and is putting up some of the worst offensive results for a third base starter in the game, following a small breakout at the plate last year.
The positive from Hayes is that he’s still arguably the best defender in the game. He started this season slumping on defense, but has since improved to being one of the statistical leaders in many defensive categories on the year. His Gold Glove fielding never left.
Pirates fans shouldn’t scoff at this defense at third, especially with a rotation that ranks 11th in the game in generating ground balls. Hayes has value to the team, even if it isn’t on offense where they need help. I think the Pirates should ride it out and hope for the best offensively, while happily accepting the defense.
If they add some bats, the need for offense from Hayes would be mitigated. He might also improve by dropping to the bottom of the lineup, out of the seven spot, if the team has more productive bats to fit into the mix.
Left Field
Bryan Reynolds has been the best hitter on this team, and one of the best hitting left fielders in the game. His season was highlighted by a 25-game hit streak in June, and he’s currently putting up his best numbers since 2021, when he had a 6+ WAR season.
Reynolds was scratched from Wednesday’s game with back spasms. Hopefully that’s only a precautionary move, and nothing that could derail his season.
If there’s one spot that doesn’t need an upgrade, it’s this one. I don’t think the Pirates could add a hitter who could surpass Reynolds as the leader of the offense. Hopefully they add some hitters who can complement his performance this year.
Center Field
This is where the Pirates could make the biggest impact.
Michael A. Taylor has been one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, but one of the worst hitters. Jack Suwinski has stepped in with some offense in July, but some of the worst defense among center fielders. Meanwhile, center field offers a few promising upgrade paths for both the short-term and long-term on this team.
Luis Robert Jr. is probably number one on the wishlist of a lot of Pirates fans. The 26-year-old has a power/speed combination that has led to 11 homers and 12 stolen bases this year. It’s actually a down year for Robert, who had 38 homers and 20 steals in a breakout season last year. There’s no guarantee he returns to that level of production, which could make teams like the Pirates weary of the investment. Aside from the prospects it would take to get him, Robert would cost over $20 million by the end of 2025, with club options for 2026 and 2027 that would cost $20 million per year.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. might be a better investment for the Pirates. He struggles defensively, but would be an upgrade over Suwinski and Taylor, with a power/speed combo that has led to 13 homers and 21 steals this year. The 26-year-old could also receive a boost from a change of scenery and the veteran leadership from Andrew McCutchen. Furthermore, he’s rumored to be inexpensive, not requiring a top prospect. Financially, he’s got two more years of arbitration, and is making $2.625 million this year. He would be cheap however you cut it, with the chance to put up better numbers than he’s shown so far. He sounds like a Pirate already.
I see JJ Bleday mentioned a lot by Pirates fans, though that could be for the everlasting affinity for players born in Pennsylvania. The Danville, PA native is 26 years old and has four more years of control beyond this season. He’s batting .238/.318/.439 with 12 homers, and would give the Pirates a left-handed bat. If they made a trade with Oakland for multiple players — a possibility I’ll get to in a moment — then it might make sense to see what they could get from Bleday as a long-term option at the position.
Harrison Bader is a rental making $10.5 million in 2024, and eligible for free agency after the season. He’s one of the best defenders in the game, and is having a good offensive season. Bader is essentially what the Pirates were hoping for from Taylor. The prospect cost would be cheap, and the financial cost across two months wouldn’t be prohibitive. The upgrade potential here wouldn’t be significant enough to put the Pirates over the top without adding at a few other positions.
The Pirates could make a splash in center field.
Robert is the most appealing for his upside, but would cost a lot in prospects, with $65 million needed to keep him through the 2026 season. That seems like too high of a price for the Pirates, and I’m saying that as something they should avoid, rather than predicting they would avoid him for those reasons.
Chisholm seems like the best upside play, giving the Pirates a chance at a longer-term center field option. Bleday could also be a sleeper fit. I don’t think either player would provide a massive impact to the lineup, but adding either player with one or two other hitters would significantly upgrade this offense.
Right Field
The Pirates could use two outfielders, with only Reynolds looking like a guy you could rely upon. That’s not to say that the Pirates don’t have talent. Jack Suwinski has shown flashes of the power and offensive production that saw him hit 45 homers between 2022-23. Joshua Palacios has recently been added to the team as a spark with the same clutch gene as Gonzales.
Randy Arozarena would be at the top of my wishlist in terms of potential impact bats. He’s making $8.1 million this year, so the prorated 2024 cost would be less than Harrison Bader. He’s slumped at the plate this year, but has been on fire since the start of June, with a .282/.394/.507 line and seven homers. The downside is that he’s a left fielder, which is the spot occupied by Reynolds.
The Pirates could move Reynolds back to center field, where the defense wouldn’t be great, but where they could fit Arozarena’s power/speed combo into the lineup. They could also keep Taylor around as a defensive option. Right field would then be a platoon of Suwinski and Palacios, hoping for the best outcome.
Arozarena would upgrade the overall offense from the outfield, but the group defense would take a significant hit.
Designated Hitter
If the Pirates only want to focus on a bat, then Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics would be the top guy to add. He’s batting .291/.370/.578 with 23 homers this year. He’d be one of few options the Pirates could bring in who could be a bigger threat in the lineup than Reynolds. He also might upgrade the lineup significantly by providing some protection for Reynolds, pairing with Tellez and Cruz in the middle of the order for a serious power trio.
Rooker is making $750,000 this year, and is arbitration eligible for three more seasons. He’s in his age 29 season right now, so there would be some questions about how long his 30 home run potential lasts.
The other factor here is that this would reduce time for Andrew McCutchen. While he hasn’t been consistent this year, McCutchen has been productive. He might be more productive off the bench, getting time in the outfield, spelling Rooker at DH, and as a pinch hitter in big moments. I feel like that would be McCutchen’s role on any contending team, and the Pirates might need to start making that adjustment with the veteran hitter.
Rooker comes with the appeal of one-stop shopping. The Pirates could get him and JJ Bleday from Oakland to solve two of their needs, both for the short-term and potentially the long-term. And if they could get both without giving up one of their top prospects, but instead by trading from the system depth, it would be potentially the best move possible.
The 2024 Pirates Trade Deadline
There are a lot of potential ways the Pirates could upgrade this team. I don’t think they need to sell the farm to get an upgrade.
Elias Diaz would be the best option behind the plate to upgrade over Yasmani Grandal, while ensuring the Pirates don’t have all of their eggs in the Joey Bart basket.
The outfield offers the most potential for an upgrade. Jazz Chisholm Jr. looks like the best upside play, but not a guy who could single-handedly improve this offense.
Brent Rooker might provide the biggest individual impact at the plate, boosting the middle of the lineup.
If the Pirates added Rooker, Chisholm, and Diaz, this offense could see enough improvements to pair with the elite pitching, making the Pirates a serious contender not only for the playoffs, but for a World Series run.
