MLB Trade Rumors has released their arbitration estimates for the 2025 season. These estimates are usually the closest predictors to the actual numbers for the arbitration process. The Pittsburgh Pirates have nine players heading to arbitration this offseason.
When a player enters the Major Leagues, they are under team control for their first six full seasons of service time. The first three years are typically paid the league minimum amount, with the final three years eligible for arbitration.
In arbitration, the players make a percentage of what they would be worth on the open market. Players who are arbitration eligible for the first time typically get a lower percentage, while third-time arbitration eligible players get closer to their free agent market value.
It’s possible for players to receive a fourth year of arbitration, replacing their third year of league-minimum pay. If a player has more than two years of service, and their service time ranks among the top 22% of players with between two and three years of service, those players become Super Two eligible. That gives them the bonus year of arbitration. The Pirates have two Super Two players this offseason.
Here are the arbitration eligible players, along with their MLBTR projected salaries, and their service time totals at the end of the 2024 season.
- Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
- David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
- Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
- Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
- Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
- Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
- Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
- Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
- Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM
Holderman and Falter are Super Two eligible. Oviedo, De La Cruz, and Bart give an interesting first-time class. The most interesting question will be what to do with Bednar. I’ll go through the non-tender chances below.
Non-Tender Candidates
Teams don’t necessarily need to offer arbitration to a player. If they tender a contract to an arbitration eligible player, they have until January to work out a deal. Otherwise, the two sides go through the arbitration process, with both submitting a salary and making an argument in front of an arbitration panel that chooses one of the numbers for the player’s 2025 salary.
If a team decides they don’t want to retain a player at the higher price, they can non-tender the player. Teams have until November 22nd this year to decide who will be tendered a contract for the 2025 season. Here are the candidates from the list above who are likely to be non-tendered.
Ben Heller, RHP – The Pirates called up Heller twice this year. After a disastrous debut, he returned to pitch 7.1 shutout innings across four appearances, before allowing four earned runs in his final two outings. He’s due $1 million and is entering his age 34 season. It’s unlikely the Pirates commit a roster spot and that amount to a guy who didn’t spend September in the Majors.
Connor Joe, UTIL – The additions of Nick Yorke and Billy Cook have made Joe expendable for next season. He was acquired by the Pirates ahead of the 2023 season, getting plenty of playing time as a super utility player off the bench. He had above-average results, and the Pirates brought him back for 2024 as a Super Two player. Joe served the same role this year, and once again got plenty of playing time, this time with below-average results. He is projected to receive $3.2 million and is entering his age 32 season. It’s possible the Pirates could flip him to another team in need of a bench option. I think it’s more likely that they go with Cook in 2025 as a cheaper super utility player with more power and the same positional flexibility as Joe.
Bryan De La Cruz, OF – The Pirates acquired De La Cruz at the deadline for Jun-Seok Shim and Garret Forrester. De La Cruz went on to put up horrible numbers for the Pirates. Arbitration pays based on the career results, and not the most recent season. De La Cruz has been an average hitter for his career, prior to joining the Pirates. He’s projected for $4 million in his first year of arbitration, and just hit 21 homers this past season. He’s going to get paid. The question is whether the Pirates want to pay him to be a value starting outfielder, or an expensive bench outfielder. He could also be flipped to another team looking for a cheap outfielder. Whether the Pirates or another team, I think the focus should be on the career results from De La Cruz. The Pirates are changing their hitting coach next season, and that could help De La Cruz get back to the numbers he had right until he joined the Pirates.
Likely to Stay
The players below are likely to stick around for the 2025 season, either by working out a deal with the Pirates, or by going through the arbitration process.
David Bednar, RHP – Bednar was removed from his role as the closer by the end of 2024. He’s also projected for $6.6 million, due to being one of the best closers in the game in previous years. He’s got two years of arbitration remaining, and could bounce back with another team. The Pirates should try to buy out his remaining two years, giving him some security, but without committing him to the closer’s role. Otherwise, $6.6 million is $4 million less than what they paid Aroldis Chapman as a free agent to be a setup man.
Dennis Santana, RHP – Santana was added via waivers this year, and ended up being one of the best producers in the bullpen. He had a 2.44 ERA in 44.1 innings, with a 10.2 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9. He’s projected for $1.8 million in arbitration, and I think he gets tendered. The Pirates don’t have a reliable bullpen, and Santana is a guy who might finally be starting to see things click at the Major League level.
Johan Oviedo, RHP – Recovering from Tommy John in 2024, Oviedo is projected to return to the mound in 2025. He’s also projected for a $1.5 million salary in his first year of arbitration. He’d be a cheap depth option, and a candidate to join the rotation when he’s healthy. Oviedo was one of the best starters for the Pirates in 2023, before going down with the injury. I think they retain the depth.
Joey Bart, C – After being acquired from the Giants, Bart broke out with the Pirates, looking like the former second overall pick. He’s now eligible for arbitration, with a $1.8 million projected salary in year one. This is a rare case where a player’s career numbers play against the most recent season. Bart would be a value at that price, though his year two price would likely sky rocket if he repeats his power numbers from 2024.
Colin Holderman, RHP – Super Two eligible at a projected $1.4 million, Holderman didn’t have a good season in 2024. He blew up at the start of the second half, spent some time on the injured list, and finished with a 1.93 ERA in 9.1 innings in September. I think he gets tendered at the low price, with the hope that he returns to being a late inning option.
Bailey Falter, LHP – The Pirates turned to Falter as a starter this year, and he put up decent overall results. The lefty had a 4.43 ERA in 142.1 innings across 28 starts. He showed more consistency this season, putting up some lights out starts more often than in the past. Falter is projected for $2.8 million, and should get that as a back of the rotation option entering his age 28 season.
