The Paul Skenes vs Jackson Merrill Rookie of the Year debates this offseason will shape how we evaluate the value of pitchers going forward.
Merrill is having a fantastic rookie season with the San Diego Padres, hitting for a .292/.323/.504 line in 563 plate appearances. That has led to a 4.9 fWAR from the center fielder, who has also shown decent defense at the position.
Skenes, meanwhile, has produced one of the best rookie seasons for a pitcher in the game’s history. He’s got a 2.07 ERA in 126 innings, and is not just the best rookie pitcher, but one of the best pitchers in the game this year.
Out of pitchers with 100+ innings, Skenes ranks second in ERA, third in FIP, third in strikeout rate. The only knock against him is that he has fewer starts or innings than the players who have pitched all season. Skenes is unlikely to disrupt the Cy Young chances of Chris Sale, who ranks third in ERA, first in FIP, and second in strikeout rate. The fact that Skenes has similar numbers at about 50 fewer innings than Sale bodes well for his Rookie of the Year chances.
To his credit, Merrill is one of the better hitters in the game. His WAR ranks 17th among all hitters with 400+ plate appearances. From that group of 192 players, Merrill ranks 12th in batting average, 85th in OBP, 20th in slugging, 31st in wOBA, and 29th in wRC+. While these numbers make Merrill a more valuable player than every Pirates hitter, including Oneil Cruz, they don’t make him one of the best hitters in the game.
If we used WAR as the deciding factor, Merrill would only benefit from more time in the Majors. He has a 4.9 WAR across 148 games. That’s 0.03 WAR per game. A pitcher throws about every five games, which means Merrill has a 0.166 WAR every pitcher start.
By comparison, Skenes has a 3.9 fWAR in 21 starts. That’s a 0.186 WAR per start, which is higher than Merrill’s pace. The current pace from Skenes would give him a 6.0 WAR in a full-season, which is the level of playing time that Merrill will receive this year. Merrill will fall short of that level.
The difference between the two rookies is that the shorter season is holding Skenes back from being a legitimate contender for the Cy Young award. A full-season isn’t allowing Merrill to be an MVP candidate.
The current NL position player leader is Francisco Lindor, with a 7.4 WAR across the same 148 games that Merrill has under his belt this year. That’s 0.05 WAR per game for Lindor, or 0.25 WAR per pitcher start.
Every 50 games, Lindor is worth 2.5 WAR. Merrill is worth 1.66 WAR. Skenes is worth 1.86 WAR. Sale would be worth 2.29 WAR.
There is a factor of WAR that highly values playing time, and position players get rated higher than pitchers simply by receiving daily playing time, while providing defensive value on the field. This is shown by the difference between Lindor and Sale. Sale is the best pitcher in the game, and Lindor is a top five hitter, but Lindor rates higher.
Merrill is not on the level of performance to have his playing time outweigh the better performance from Skenes. If Skenes had more playing time this year, his numbers would only go up closer to the level of Sale, and much closer to Lindor than Merrill would reach.
Paul Skenes is having a historic season, and that should be recognized. We also need to recognize the value differences between pitchers and position players. Yes, the position players play daily, but that doesn’t help when a starting pitcher puts up more WAR per start than a position player every five games. Skenes is the better player over Merrill, even without playing in the Majors all season.
