If you need further proof that the Pittsburgh Pirates have a fatal flaw with their hitting approach, all throughout the system, then today I submit to you Connor Scott.
The Pirates acquired the outfielder in November 2021, as one of three players coming back from Miami in the Jacob Stallings trade. Along with RHP Kyle Nicolas and RHP Zach Thompson, Scott was part of the Pirates’ approach to tear-down and rebuild their organization through the minors.
Drafted in the first round, 13th overall by Miami in 2018, Scott hit .276/.333/.446 in 435 plate appearances in High-A with the Marlins the season before the trade. He also hit ten homers and 25 doubles in his age-21 season.
In his first year with the Pirates, Scott moved up to the Double-A level. He hit .247/.308/.389 in 424 plate appearances, with 25 doubles and seven homers. There was some promise with the power production, but he took a step backwards in his ability to make contact and hit for average.
Scott returned to Altoona in 2023, but the results continued to slide. He hit .196/.263/.315 in 289 plate appearances. His power declined over the 2022 season, and his ability to get hits once again declined, with a .245 BABIP. By comparison, he had a .305 the year before in Altoona, and a .336 in High-A with Miami.
For the third year in a row, Scott returned to Altoona in 2024. For the third year in a row, his numbers declined. He hit .160/.207/.185 in 87 plate appearances. His power was non-existent, with an .025 isolated power, down from .119 the year prior, .142 in 2022, and .170 in High-A with Miami. Scott also saw a spike in his strikeout rate, and a reduction in his walk rate.
The Pirates released Scott on June 25th this season. The 24-year-old was signed about a week later by the Milwaukee Brewers. On July 6th, after a few days in their minor league facility, he was sent to the Double-A affiliate for Milwaukee.
Scott is currently hitting .291/.347/.500 in 95 plate appearances for Milwaukee’s Double-A affiliate.
His walk and strikeout rates have returned to where they were with Miami, and where they stayed the first two years in Altoona. That’s a 21.1% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate. His BABIP has gone way up over his time with the Pirates, jumping to .344, which is in line with his 2021 season in High-A. His isolated power has jumped to .209, thanks to three home runs and nine doubles.
It’s a small sample of success, but Scott had the same sample in Altoona this year, when he looked like a hitter who should probably think about retiring. Now, he’s looking like a hitter who might be able to help the Brewers in the Majors one day.
One massive change with Scott in this small sample is that his line drive rate is way up. He has a 25.8% line drive rate, which beats his previous career high of 21.7% in High-A with Miami. Scott was in the 17-18% range with the Pirates.
His batted ball profile with the Pirates saw him increasing his fly balls in 2022 and 2023, with a ground ball heavy approach in 2024. Line drives are the most likely to fall in for a hit, and his line drive approach with Milwaukee explains the higher BABIP, and thus, the renewed ability to hit for average.
The question for Scott is whether this approach will be sustainable over the long-term. If it is, then the Pirates are going to eventually have to deal with Connor Scott every time they face the Brewers. That definitely wasn’t the plan when they acquired him for Stallings in their rebuild.
The question for the Pirates is how many of their struggling hitting prospects are only struggling because of the system’s hitting development?
Altoona, for example, ranks second-to-last in the Eastern League in OPS, while ranking first in strikeouts. You could say that’s just a bad group of hitters, but those hitters included Scott, who immediately turned things around after leaving this system.
Connor Scott appears to be the latest evidence that the Pirates have a flawed hitting development approach.
