Results matter.
When it comes to evaluating prospects, there’s always the aspect of raw tools and projections of future abilities. There is also a reason they play the games. Some players get a pass for poor performance, due to the raw tools and promise of future abilities. Eventually, players will need to show results on the field in order to continue carrying the “prospect” tag as a guy who could eventually reach the Majors.
I’ve always considered the “Raw Tools/Results” scale to tip more toward results in Double-A. That said, I can’t recall many prospects getting promoted at any level without the on-field results to show for it.
Today’s article is simple: Which Pittsburgh Pirates prospects have been hitting above-average at their levels this year? My focus will be on the full-season teams, with splits between the full-season and the last month. I’m going to be focusing on pitchers tomorrow.
Triple-A: Indianapolis
The league average OPS for the International League West is .767.
Full-Season Performers
- Nick Gonzales: 1.031
- Henry Davis: .980
- Ji Hwan Bae: .931
- Billy Cook: .896
- Seth Beer: .891
- Nick Yorke: .871
- Billy McKinney: .846
- Matt Gorski: .815
- Alika Williams: .769
Last 30 Days
- Billy Cook: 1.098
- Billy McKinney: 1.019
- Henry Davis: .934
- Alika Williams: .875
- Nick Yorke: .813
- Edward Olivares: .805
- Matt Gorski: .788
Analysis
The top three performers from the full-season group (Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis, Ji Hwan Bae) have all made it to the Majors, though none of them have come close to their Triple-A numbers. The best performer has been Gonzales, who rates slightly below-average in the big leagues.
Billy McKinney has joined that group in the second half, and is currently in the early days of his MLB callup. This is his seventh season in the big leagues. Alika Williams has also had a better second half, but hasn’t done as well in the Majors.
The Pirates added Billy Cook and Nick Yorke at the trade deadline. Cook has exploded in the second half, while Yorke remains consistently good.
Double-A: Altoona
The league average OPS for the Eastern League Southwest is .698.
Full-Season Performers
- Charles McAdoo: .837
- Yoyner Fajardo: .769
- Seth Beer: .763
- Kervin Pichardo: .722
Last 30 Days
- Kervin Pichardo: .891
- Jackson Glenn: .752
- Matt Fraizer: .737
- Yoyner Fajardo: .699
Analysis
Altoona’s offense has been one of the weaker groups this year. The best player on the team was Charles McAdoo, who was traded at the deadline. Seth Beer moved up to Triple-A, but has struggled as of late. The Pirates added Yoyner Fajardo in June, and he’s consistently been one of the best performers, but his numbers don’t point to a future MLB player.
Jackson Glenn and Matt Fraizer have returned to the level in the second half, so their results come with the disclaimer that they’ve already had issues in Triple-A.
The most intriguing player is Kervin Pichardo, who has gotten consistently better as the year has gone on. The Pirates added the 22-year-old in an early season trade for Jackson Wolf. He had a .710 OPS in April, .557 in May, .751 in June, .767 in July, and currently has a .868 in August.
Sammy Siani was just below the line for both the full-season and last 30 days, after moving up from Greensboro earlier in the season.
High-A: Greensboro
The league average OPS for the South Atlantic League South is .690.
Full-Season Performers
- Nick Cimillo: 1.038
- Charles McAdoo: .976
- Sammy Siani: .965
- Jack Brannigan: .802
- Shawn Ross: .793
- Termarr Johnson: .744
- P.J. Hilson: .742
- Hudson Head: .720
- Mitch Jebb: .695
Last 30 Days
- Mitch Jebb: .809
- Shawn Ross: .738
- Maikol Escotto: .701
Analysis
Greensboro has a hitter friendly park, so some of these numbers come with a disclaimer. The top three full-season performers moved up to Double-A. Nick Cimillo and Siani have not been above-average at the new level, though Siani is around average, as noted above. Jack Brannigan has been injured in the second half, but has maintained good numbers in his brief time healthy.
The best second-half surger has been Mitch Jebb. He had a .589 OPS in April, .542 in May, .685 in June, .884 in July, and .780 in August. His on-base percentage has fueled the numbers over the last few months, with a .381 in June, .426 in July, and .410 in August.
Single-A: Bradenton
The league average OPS for the Florida State League West is .680.
Full-Season Performers
- Garret Forrester: .795
- Jhonny Severino: .789
- Esmerlyn Valdez: .780
- Axiel Plaz: .745
- Omar Alfonzo: .741
- Braylon Bishop: .694
Last 30 Days
- Jhonny Severino: .789
- Javier Rivas: .769
- Enmanuel Terrero: .719
- Esmerlyn Valdez: .703
Analysis
The Pirates traded Garret Forrester at the deadline. His success does come with the disclaimer that he was a college bat in Single-A. Bradenton has some interesting talents from the Latin American ranks. Esmerlyn Valdez has been the most consistent hitter all season, though he’s slumped a bit in the second half. Omar Alfonzo was moved up to High-A, after putting up above-average results with consistent hard contact.
Javier Rivas has been consistently getting better as the season has progressed. He opened with a .320 OPS in April, followed by a .582 in May, 1.046 in June, .558 in July, and .792 in August. He’s a 6′ 6″ shortstop with a lot of power, but a lot of swing and miss that brings inconsistency to his results.
Jhonny Severino was one of the best hitters in the FCL this year, and has continued his success since moving up to Single-A. He’s been one of the best hitting stories in the system this year.
System Hitting Analysis
The Pirates have a bottom-third ranked farm system, finishing 27th in Baseball America’s rankings and 20th in the MLB Pipeline rankings. A big reason for this is a lack of hitting development.
Looking at the lists above, you can see the lack of performers on the field. The system received a boost with the additions of Billy Cook and Nick Yorke at the deadline, but lost one of their best performers in Charles McAdoo.
The Triple-A hitters have not carried their results over to the big leagues. Nick Gonzales went from a 1.031 OPS to .680 in the majors. Henry Davis is batting .980 in Triple-A, versus .502 in the majors. Ji Hwan Bae has been hitting .931 in Triple-A, and .485 in the majors. That’s an average loss of .425 OPS points from Triple-A to the majors.
Altoona has an interesting guy in Kervin Pichardo, but I wouldn’t grade him as more than a system depth option at this point. He might be a top 30 guy, but he’s largely a guy you want to see more from before going all-in with the MLB prospect label.
Greensboro is seeing a second-half surge from Mitch Jebb, but the disclaimer here is that he was a second rounder last year out of a Division I school, drafted for his hitting and plate patience skills. He should be hitting in High-A, and it doesn’t do much to raise his stock that he’s improving in the second half. Outside of McAdoo, the players who were above-average at this level have not carried their success to Double-A.
One of the most encouraging hitters in the system is Jhonny Severino. I downgrade a lot of the other above-average players in Bradenton due to their three-outcomes approach, and OPS results driven by power. Severino looks to be more of a complete hitter, and is probably the most promising result in the entire system from a hitting perspective.
Tomorrow, I’ll review the pitchers, which will have more encouraging outcomes. The fact that the Pirates have very few hitters in this system who have produced on-field results is validation for the downgrade to their system due to the lack of hitting development.
