Something occurred to me recently.
According to my social media memories, 15 years ago around this time I was where most aspiring prospects writers are today. I was attending games to give my reports online, aspiring to be a baseball writer. I was beginning the process of interviewing players, and I wasn’t nearly as good as I am today. Most of all, I largely trusted the teams and the national prospect writers to know more than I did about the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system — and baseball development in general.
This is my 16th season running Pirates Prospects. In that time, I’ve spent countless hours interviewing players, watching games, and putting together prospect rankings. It wasn’t until 2020 that I realized my baseball knowledge was on par to work inside the game at a director level.
It wasn’t until this year that I really started to embrace writing as an authority on the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system, with no peer in the media realm, and with merely a differing opinion to those who work inside the organization.
One big thing I’ve been focusing on this year is building a better ranking system for prospects — along with providing independent accountability toward the Pirates rebuild, to serve as an authoritative voice representing the interests of the fans.
The latter gets the page views, regardless of whether the Pirates are doing well or failing. As long as you speak the truth, people will read it. That’s rule number one in this industry.
The prospect rankings are more of a passion project. It’s a way for me to develop my own methodology. This is the fourth version of my 2024 rankings, and each update has resulted in a methodology adjustment behind the scenes.
Version 4.0 offers the biggest adjustment to date, which will inevitably have these rankings going against the consensus for some players.
Here are some of the adjustments that have gone into the rankings. If you want to check out the rankings themselves, head over to the Rankings page, or scroll down in this article for the list. Patreon supporters get all of the individual player writeups, as a thank you for their support throughout the year that made this project possible. I wouldn’t be able to watch baseball for a living, literally every single day, without the support of readers.
The Big Change in Version 4.0
Prospects are traditionally graded on a 20-80 scale, and my own scale is detailed below. The problem with this is that there’s no clear system to determine how a 50-grade starting pitcher should compare to a 50-grade shortstop or a 50-grade catcher. There are also different paths to a 50-grade at each position, with a mixture of offense and defense.
Every player has a finite amount of energy in a game, in a week, in a month, in a season, and in a career. Every position player receives 4-5 plate appearances per game, which requires X amount of energy. Each defensive position requires a different amount of energy. The harder the position, the less energy you have at the plate — or in the field, for those players who prioritize offense over anything else.
For the latest rankings, I created 30 different position profiles, based on how much projected energy would be needed to play those positions.
The most challenging is a two-way catcher. The energy needed to catch a complete game, manage and strategize with a pitcher, and still have energy left over to hit at an above-average rate is the most difficult thing in this game.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are positions like middle relievers, designated hitters, and defensive corner outfielders. These positions either carry less of an energy expulsion, or fewer leverage situations than a two-way catcher or shortstop or center fielder would be expected to manage.
Every player was graded based on where I project them to likely end up in the Majors. A lot of rankings will be fudged by dreaming about the best possibilities. “If Second Baseman A can be a plus defensive center fielder and continue to hit like they did as an amateur…” is the dream that leads to elite prospect grades. My focus was aiming for more realistic combos.
I think we’re seeing the downside to the traditional approach with Oneil Cruz. For years, the Pirates, their fans, and every prospect outlet (including my own rankings) have been following the script of “If Cruz can play shortstop, with the potential of his bat, then he will be a star.” That got repeated so often that the Pirates essentially had to wait for him to show that he can’t play shortstop in the Majors.
Cruz is currently in the early days of living up to the hype surrounding his bat, while showing that he can’t play shortstop without an alarming amount of errors.
The dream of a two-way shortstop has been repeated so often to justify the maximum prospect ranking for Cruz. It leaves the Pirates in a situation where fans get angry at Cruz for not being that two-way player, when he could be an elite performer at another position.
Would Cruz be a better hitter if he played left field? Possibly. Would he provide better defensive value with fewer errors at an easier position? Likely.
The Pirates have a trend of trying all of their best hitting prospects at the most difficult positions, and you can’t fault them for trying to maximize value. Not everyone can be a designated hitter or play a traditionally offense-first position.
I wanted to get away from those dream scenarios in this latest update. In my rankings, I isolated where each player profiled best defensively in the Majors, while still being able to hit. I’m not going into the details of this positional grading system. After all, I have competition in the local prospect scene today, which wasn’t the case 15 years ago.
I was satisfied with the initial results. I’ll likely be making some adjustments to this methodology by the time Version 5.0 of the rankings is released, but the current approach is good enough to publish with the new update.
As for the other changes that have been made this year…
Current/Future Value System
Players are traditionally graded based on their Future Value. I’ve been identifying the present day value of players, to give an idea of how long the development process could take. The grades follow the system below, with a projected 5-10 point rise per year for each player, depending on the player.
- 10 – Pure athletes with very little baseball experience, starting their careers in rookie ball.
- 15 – Players who can perform across a season at the rookie levels, with regular playing time.
- 20 – The talent needed to play regularly in A-ball, at either level. High-A is usually a stronger indicator of this value.
- 25 – Double-A talent.
- 30 – The bottom half of Triple-A talent.
- 35 – The top half of Triple-A talent, and where the “Quad-A” label begins.
- 40 – The replacement level players at the MLB level. These are the players who unfairly get labeled “Quad A”.
- 45 – MLB bench/bullpen options who can occasionally start, and provide long-term positive or neutral value in the majors.
- 50 – Average MLB starters, or elite relievers.
- 55 – Above-average MLB starters, position or pitcher.
- 60 – Plus MLB performers. Players can be graded higher than this, but this is the threshold when players start becoming the best in the game.
Development Bonus
If I’ve learned one thing in my years of talking with prospects, it’s that some players don’t have the capacity to improve their game. Other players have the ability to make positive changes rapidly.
I have the ability to easily identify which players have the capacity to make change, and which players can make changes rapidly.
I’ve assigned bonus points for those players, based on proven positive adjustments. Every player is ranked by their future potential, but every player needs to adjust their approach between amateur ball and the Majors to reach that potential. It only makes sense to grade players based on their ability to positively develop.
Like the positional grades, I’m not going into detail on who got the development bonus points. I will say that only six players in the top 30 didn’t get points. By comparison, there were only seven players in the 51-71 ranks who received this development bonus.
My rankings are heavily skewed toward the players who have a proven ability to improve their game.
2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Top 50 Tiered Rankings Version 4.0
The biggest change this year is that I’ve been selling out to the Tiered Ranking system. I’ve been using this as a secondary ranking for years, but it’s really the best way to see the amount of talent in the system.
The 13th ranked prospect in this update has very little difference from the 7th ranked prospect. The 14th ranked prospect has very little difference from the 23rd ranked prospect. There’s not a huge gap between 13 and 14, but there’s a massive gap between 13 and 23. The tiers show how many prospects the Pirates have at each talent level.
Without further ado, below is Version 4.0 of my Top 50 Tiered Rankings for the Pittsburgh Pirates system.
TIER ONE: POTENTIAL BEST IN THE GAME
The best prospect in the system is right-hander Bubba Chandler, who was drafted in the third round in 2021 and signed to an over-slot deal. Chandler is graded as a top 50 prospect, but he really should be in the top 25, if not higher. Some scouts have him as a future closer, but I think he’s shown enough to be considered a future plus starter. That’s due to rapid improvements he’s made across his game in the last year. He’s the clear number one in the system, and could arrive for a look by the end of the 2024 season.
BUBBA CHANDLER, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS
CV: 35 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2027 | Trend: UP
Stats: 3.70 ERA, 94:36 K/BB, 80.1 IP (AA); 1.50 ERA, 23:4 K/BB, 18 IP (AAA)
Scouting Notes: 95-97, 98 Four-Seam; 84-86 Slider; 86-88 Changeup; 79-81 Curveball
Development: Chandler has made a lot of strides in the last year with his secondary stuff. He improved his slider to a swing-and-miss pitch in 2023, and made a lot of strides with his changeup this year, while adding a curveball to the mix. He has the makings of four above-average or better offerings, and they’re not far off from those grades in the present. The most encouraging sign has been an improvement to his control this year.
Future Outlook: He’s one of the most athletic pitchers in the system, with a growing arsenal and improved control that could make him a top of the rotation starter in the majors. There’s a good chance that Chandler is pitching in the rotation full-time by next summer, with a slight chance he arrives early for a preview at the end of this season.
TIER TWO: TOP 100 PROSPECTS
I don’t follow the other 29 systems, so I’m not an authority over where players should rank in the top 100 overall prospects. In my opinion, there are two other players who should absolutely be top 100 guys, and not just on the fringe at the end of the list. The Pirates have one of these guys in the top 100 lists, while another one is still undervalued by the national rankers.
KONNOR GRIFFIN, SS/CF, FCL PIRATES
CV: 20 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029 | Trend: NEW
Stats: N/A
Scouting Notes: 70 Run; 70 Arm; 70 Defense at CF; 60 Power; 50 Hit
Development: The Pirates took Griffin with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft, and he could be the highest upside guy from his class. He’s got tools for days, with a chance to be a power/speed player with plus defense up the middle. The only question is whether he can hit enough to maximize the other tools. He improved his swing this spring, working on timing issues from the longer levers of his 6′ 4″ frame. This was also the first year he had a single-sport focus.
Future Outlook: Griffin profiles as a shortstop or center fielder, with the ability to be an elite defender at either spot. His path to the majors might be quicker and easier as a center fielder, where he profiles as a potential Gold Glover. His hit ability and the development of his plus raw power will have a bigger impact on his progression.
THOMAS HARRINGTON, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS
CV: 30 | FV: 55 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2027 | Trend: UP
Stats: 2.24 ERA, 74:10 K/BB, 68.1 IP (AA); 3.09 ERA, 17:3 K/BB, 23.1 IP (AAA)
Scouting Notes: 91-93, 95 Four-Seam; 80-83 Sweeper; 77-82 Curveball; 83-87 Slider; 85-87 Changeup
Development: Harrington has moved quickly through the system, after being drafted 36th overall in 2022. He doesn’t have elite velocity, but has a mix of above-average or better secondary stuff, with some of the best control and command in the system. He works quickly, changing speeds and locations to keep hitters guessing, while showing a calm demeanor on the mound in all situations. He’s also a hard worker, committed at all times to improving his game, with the added value that he’s helped several other pitchers with their stuff. That shows a certain mastery of his craft that is underrated.
Future Outlook: If the dream with Chandler is a Paul Skenes type starter led by elite velocity, then the dream with Harrington is a Mitch Keller type starter. He’s not going to blow hitters away with elite stuff, but he knows how to pitch and has plenty of weapons in his arsenal. He could be a number 2-3 starter, and should be in the rotation full-time by mid-2025.
TIER THREE: TOP 100 CANDIDATES
There are three other prospects who I feel should receive top 100 consideration, sneaking in the back of the lists. Two of the players in this tier get that consideration already, though they’ve seen their values drop a bit this year. The other is new to the system, and I’m probably higher on him than most — both in the system rankings and with top 100 consideration.
NICK YORKE, 2B/OF, INDIANAPOLIS
CV: 35 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: NEW
Stats: .251/.325/.366, 4 HR, 8 SB, 197 PA (AA); .332/.413/.487, 6 HR, 9 SB, 260 PA (AAA)
Scouting Notes: 55 Hit; 45 Power; 50 Fielder at 2B; 45 Run; 45 Arm
Development: Yorke has made a lot of adjustments with his swing over the last year, and may have found something that clicked this year. He lowered his hands and focused on a line-drive approach to the middle of the field, escaping a pull-heavy approach. Since the change in Double-A, he’s moved up to Triple-A and has put up numbers that could raise his hit tool grade to plus potential. He’s got the potential to play average second base defense, but has been getting work in center field, and has also worked in left field.
Future Outlook: A first rounder in 2020, Yorke was acquired by the Pirates at the deadline for Quinn Priester. At the time of the trade, he was in the early stages of his positive development after the swing change. He has only continued putting up exceptional numbers in Triple-A with the Pirates. He’s in his age-22 season, and will either serve as a backup plan to Nick Gonzales at second base, or could break into the majors with the Pirates in the outfield. If he keeps hitting like his half-season in Triple-A, the Pirates will have to find a position for him in the Majors at some point in 2025.
TERMARR JOHNSON, 2B, ALTOONA
CV: 25 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .238/.372/.385, 13 HR, 20 SB, 487 PA (A+)
Scouting Notes: 60 Hit; 50+ Power; 55 Run; 50 Fielding at 2B; 40 Arm
Development: One of the best pure hitters from the 2022 draft, Johnson has shown off his pure hitting abilities in his brief work against upper level pitchers. He’s spent most of his young pro career developing his power bat in the lower levels, hitting 31 homers over the last two seasons. He controls the strike zone well, limiting strikeouts and getting on base at a high rate.
Future Outlook: The Pirates just called Johnson up to Double-A, where he’ll get a bigger challenge against more advanced arms. He showed good swing decisions and adjustments in the box during his brief time in Major League Spring Training this year, and should be able to handle the jump to the higher level. He might even benefit from the jump due to seeing more pitches to attack with his plus hit tool than in A-ball. He will likely need at least a year in the upper levels, and could be on pace for a 2026 arrival.
BRAXTON ASHCRAFT, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS
CV: 30 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: DOWN
Stats: 3.69 ERA, 63:8 K/BB, 53.2 IP (AA); 0.49 ERA, 13:4 K/BB, 18.1 IP (AAA)
Scouting Notes: 95-97, 98 Four-Seam; 89-91 Slider; 88-90 Changeup; 83-86 Curveball
Development: Ashcraft went down with Tommy John after the 2021 season, and returned with better control and improved velocity last year. He mostly works off his fastball/slider combo, but his curveball has looked like another swing and miss offering. His changeup has been in development this year, after the previous version caused discomfort. He’s currently on the injured list, and will need to stay healthy to remain a future starter. He’s got the stuff to be an elite late-inning reliever if the rotation doesn’t work out.
Future Outlook: If the dream for Chandler is Skenes-lite, and the dream for Harrington is Keller, then the dream for Ashcraft is a Jared Jones comp. Like Jones, Ashcraft could have success in the majors working off a pair of plus pitches with his fastball and slider. His curve shows promise as a third pitch. Ashcraft could pitch today in the majors as a reliever, if healthy, but the Pirates continue developing him as a starter. He should be in the mix for a spot in the majors at some point in 2025.
TIER FOUR: FUTURE STARTERS
The players in this tier have the best chance at starting in the majors. Not all of them will work out as starters, but they’re more likely to reach the majors and stick in a lesser role, even if they “bust” from the starter projection.
HUNTER BARCO, LHP, ALTOONA
CV: 25 | FV: 55 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: 3.34 ERA, 77:22 K/BB, 62 IP (A+); 2.25 ERA, 6:0 K/BB, 4 IP (AA)
Scouting Notes: 92-95, 96 Fastball; 85-87, 88 Cutter, 80-83 Slider; 84-88 Forkball; Changeup in Development
Development: Barco was drafted in the second round in 2022 while he was recovering from Tommy John. He made his pro debut in Bradenton in 2023. His development in 2024 has taken him to a new level. The lefty has improved his velocity from low-90s to mid-90s, hitting 96. He’s moved from a low-80s gyro slider to an upper-80s harder cutter, which has generated more swing and miss. He also developed a mid-80s forkball style changeup. He still uses the gyro slider and has been developing a true changeup for a fifth pitch. With improved control from being more in line to the plate this year, Barco has made all of the adjustments needed to be considered a future Major League starter, and more than a back-of-the-rotation arm.
Future Outlook: After one start in Altoona, Barco went on the injured list with a shin injury. That shouldn’t stop the progress he’s made on the mound this season. The Pirates have no shortage of starting pitching prospects, but Barco is definitely in the future mix. As a lefty, he should play up at PNC Park. He could arrive in 2026, after a year pitching in the upper levels.
ZANDER MUETH, RHP, BRADENTON
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: FLAT
Stats: 1.58 ERA, 56:26 K/BB, 51.1 IP (Rk); 5.91 ERA, 13:16 K/BB, 10.2 IP (A)
Scouting Notes: 92-95, 97 Sinker; 83-86 Slider; 84-88 Changeup; 86-88 Cutter
Development: Mueth stands at 6′ 6″, 205 pounds, but throws from a low three quarters arm slot that adds deception to his pitches. He’s still able to get his sinking fastball up to 97, consistently sitting in the 93-94 MPH range. His control has been a problem in his pro debut, but he’s only 19, and will likely be working on adjustments following his first full professional season. His secondary stuff shows promise, with a slider that generates swing and miss, and a good feel for a changeup.
Future Outlook: Drafted 67th overall in 2023, Mueth is in the early stages of his career, but looking promising in his debut. He’s one of the best arms in the lower levels, and if his control improves, he could emerge as one of the top prospects in the system one day. For now, expect him to work on his control in A-ball in 2025, with a chance to move quickly through the system if he locks that down. He’s projected as a future starter, and could improve to an above-average or better future value with improvements to his control.
BILLY COOK, OF/1B, INDIANAPOLIS
CV: 35 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: NEW
Stats: .255/.365/.392, 1 HR, 4 SB, 63 PA (AA); .287/.379/.494, 13 HR, 18 SB, 377 PA (AAA)
Scouting Notes: 60 Power; 60 Run; 60 Arm; 50 Fielder at 1B; 45 Hit
Development: Cook has made a lot of strides over the last two seasons. He hit 24 homers and stole 30 bases in Double-A in 2023. He’s continued tapping into his combo of plus raw power and plus speed in Triple-A this year, while maintaining a lower strikeout rate and improving his walk rate. He can play all over the field, getting time at first, second, and all three outfield spots. He profiles as an average defender anywhere, due to his plus arm and athleticism.
Future Outlook: The Pirates added Cook in a rare prospect-for-prospect trade at the recent deadline, dealing from their depth in pitching to address their need for hitting. He has maintained his improved hitting since joining the Pirates, and is looking like a guy who could emerge as an average starter with a lot of potential positions. He’ll be in his age 26 season next year, but doesn’t seem to have much left to prove in the minors, and could be up by the end of the 2024 season.
MIKE BURROWS, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS
CV: 30 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: UP
Stats: 4.00 ERA, 20:4 K/BB, 18 IP (AAA)
Scouting Notes: 92-95, 96 Four-Seam; 86-89 Slider; 84-87 Changeup; 77-80 Curveball
Development: Burrows returned from Tommy John surgery this year, and has resumed his progression from pre-surgery. He improved his control in 2022, and has maintained that improvement in his return to Triple-A this year. He’s developed a slider and a changeup which are both swing and miss pitches, and also throws an extreme spin curveball. He’s got four average or better offerings, with a fastball that can get up to 96-97.
Future Outlook: Heading into the 2023 season, Burrows looked like a rotation depth option. He went down early in the year with Tommy John. Since returning to Triple-A, he’s resumed looking like a future starter in the big leagues. His innings are limited this year, but he could be a rotation option at some point in 2025, with a chance to stick long-term in some Major League rotation, due to the advancements to his slider and changeup.
MICHAEL KENNEDY, LHP, GREENSBORO
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: 4.07 ERA, 80:16 K/BB, 73 IP (A)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 89-90, 91 Four-Seam; 77-80 Sweeper; 80-83 Changeup
Development: Kennedy isn’t a hard thrower, but has made a lot of strides with his secondary stuff in the last year. He moved from a traditional slider to a sweeper this year, and learned how to throw a kick changeup. Both pitches have been above-average offerings, which combined with a cerebral approach on the mound and good command, helps his fastball play up.
Future Outlook: The Pirates drafted Kennedy in the fourth round out of high school in 2022. He’s made a lot of mature strides to his development in his second professional season, and just received a promotion to High-A Greensboro. He’s not a flashy pitcher, due to the lower velocity, but his competitive attitude and advanced feel for pitching help his stuff play up. He’s shown a good ability for rapid positive development, which should profile well when he needs to make adjustments in the upper levels. He has a chance to be a starter in the majors, but will need a few more years of development.[/ppp_patron_only]
LEVI STERLING, RHP, FCL PIRATES
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2030 | Trend: NEW
Stats: N/A
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 89-92, 94 Fastball; Mid-80s Sweeper; Mid-70s Curveball; Developing Changeup
Development: Sterling was drafted in the Competitive Balance round in 2024, with the chance for four average or better pitches and above-average to plus control. He throws from a low three quarters slot, with loose, clean, repeatable action. He locates his fastball where he wants to in the zone, while throwing his secondary stuff for strikes. With a 6′ 5″, 202 pound frame, he’s got a chance to add velocity. He could also improve his curveball to a plus offering, and the early changeup development shows potential for another above-average pitch.
Future Outlook: The Pirates have had years of success at developing pitchers like Sterling into future MLB starters. He was one of the youngest players in the draft this year, and already has a good foundation to his arsenal, with solid mechanics and the chance for plus control. He’ll be a guy to watch in the lowest levels next year, with the potential for a lot of improvement from an already impressive pitching profile.[/ppp_patron_only]
JHONNY SEVERINO, INF, BRADENTON
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: UP
Stats: .291/.373/.545, 10 HR, 12 SB, 220 PA (Rk); .230/.288/.419, 2 HR, 3 SB, 80 PA (A)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 60 Power; 50 Hit; 50 Run; 60 Arm; 45 Field at 3B
Development: Severino was originally a switch hitter, but has moved to exclusively hitting from the right side. He’s shown a lot of power in rookie ball, while also showing a good ability to steal bases. He’s a more offensive-minded infielder, but a plus arm could allow him to play third base long-term. The Pirates acquired him for Carlos Santana at the 2023 trade deadline, and he’s been one of the best hitting success stories in the system this year, carrying his power and speed over to Single-A after the FCL season.
Future Outlook: Already getting experience in Single-A, Severino should spend the 2025 season in the A-ball ranks. His power/speed combo will lead the way with his development, and his ability to play third base raises his value. His hit tool has been impressive at times this year, with good plate patience. If he maintains that trend with more consistent contact, he could move quickly through the system.[/ppp_patron_only]
TIER FIVE: FRINGE STARTERS
The fourth tier includes prospects who I would comfortably project with the chance to be starters one day in the majors. The fifth tier has potential starters, but they come with two profiles. They’re either lower level guys with more risk than the group above, or upper level guys with a lower ceiling but a higher floor.
WYATT SANFORD, SS, FCL PIRATES
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2030 | Trend: NEW
Stats: N/A
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: Hit 50; Power 45+; Run 60; Field 60 at SS; Arm 55
Development: Sanford was regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the 2024 draft, with the chance to stick at the position long-term. The Pirates drafted him out of the high school ranks in the second round. He’s the son of former big leaguer Chance Sanford, who made his MLB debut with the Pirates in 1998. Wyatt is a contact hitter who controls the strike zone well, with good swing decisions and gap-to-gap power. His fringe-average power profiles for double-digit homers, and he’s gotten stronger with increased bat speed this year, showing potential for improvements. He moves well in all directions on the field, with good hands, glove work, and an above-average arm.
Future Outlook: Sanford will make his pro debut in 2025, and should spend a few years in the lower levels working on his hitting in pro ball. He has the chance to develop into a contact hitter with plus speed on the bases, to go with the plus defensive upside at short. If the bat doesn’t develop well, he still has the tools to be a utility player.[/ppp_patron_only]
JACK BRANNIGAN, 3B, GREENSBORO
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .227/.338/.464, 17 HR, 12 SB, 329 PA (A+)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 40 Hit; 55 Power; 60 Run; 60 Field at 3B; 70 Arm
Development: Brannigan is one of the best defenders in the system, with the arm strength to stick on the left side, and the potential to be a Gold Glove defender in the minors at third base. He also plays shortstop, and has the athleticism to play all over the field. He’s shown above-average power production, but his hit tool grades below-average. Brannigan made an adjustment at the end of 2023 to focus at the top of the zone and adjust down, which has led to a reduced strikeout rate in his return to High-A. He’s currently out with a left shoulder injury.
Future Outlook: The 2022 third rounder should move to Double-A in 2025, where his bat will get his biggest test so far. The defense on the left side of the infield, along with his power/speed combo, will give him a good path toward starting in the big leagues one day. If he can improve the hit tool, and keep the strikeouts low, he’ll increase those starting odds. A more conservative projection still has him as a future MLB player, providing power and defense off the bench, with a chance to be a fringe-average starter.[/ppp_patron_only]
ALESSANDRO ERCOLANI, RHP, GREENSBORO
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: UP
Stats: 3.34 ERA, 87:24 K/BB, 70 IP (A+)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 92-94, 97 Four-Seam; 91-93, 94 Sinker; 86-88 Cutter; 81-83 Slider; 84-86 Changeup; 77-79 Curveball
Development: Ercolani hails from the independent nation of San Marino, which is not known for baseball. Despite the lack of opportunities growing up, he’s developed quite the arsenal by his age-20 season. The 6′ 2″, 185 pound starter has seen his velocity increase from the upper-80s to the low-to-mid 90s, getting his four-seam up to 97-98 at times. He’s improved his control this season, while increasing his innings total working as a starter early in the year, and a multi-inning reliever later in the year. He’s been one of the most effective pitchers on the Greensboro roster all season, outside of a slump for a month in his transition to the bullpen.
Future Outlook: Signed in 2021 as an international free agent, Ercolani has made some impressive strides with his limited baseball experience. His pitches offer a lot of movement, and the six-pitch arsenal is advanced. He leads with the four-seam, cutter, and slider, which could get him to the Majors as a long reliever. As one of the best arms in the lower levels, he should continue developing as a starter in Double-A next year, as he gradually increases his innings workload to handle pitching out of the rotation for a full-season. If he can handle the workload, he’s got the stuff to start in the Majors.[/ppp_patron_only]
CARLSON REED, RHP, GREENSBORO
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027 | Trend: UP
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 96:42 K/BB, 77.2 IP (A); 0.48 ERA, 23:7 K/BB, 18.2 IP (A+)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 91-94, 96 Four-Seam; 91-93, 95 Sinker; 82-87 Slider; 82-85 Changeup; Mid-80s Sweeper
Development: Reed was drafted in the fourth round in 2023 as a reliever out of West Virginia. The Pirates have been converting him to a starter, and the move has gone well. He works heavily with a four-seam/sinker/slider approach, with his slider grading above-average and generating a lot of swing and miss. His velocity consistently touches 95-96, and he has a good feel for a changeup. Reed has moved up to High-A, where he is putting up impressive numbers, while maintaining improvements to his control that he’s seen over the last few months. The control was one of the biggest question marks, and that positive development in the rotation is great to see.
Future Outlook: So far, Reed is handing the move to the rotation well, with the chance for three above-average pitches, and the positive improvements to his control throughout the year. He should spend the 2025 season in Altoona, where he’ll get a bigger challenge. His fastball/slider combo could play in the Majors as a reliever, but Reed is looking like one of the more promising starters in the lower levels, with a pitch mix that could get him in a Major League rotation one day.[/ppp_patron_only]
ANTHONY SOLOMETO, LHP, ALTOONA
CV: 25 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029 | Trend: DOWN
Stats: 6.17 ERA, 36:32 K/BB, 46.2 IP (AA)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 90-92 Sinker; Low-90s Four-Seam; Upper 80s Changeup; Mid-80s Slider
Development: Solometo has been one of the rare stories of a pitcher declining this season. He’s seen a drop in his velocity, going from 92-94, touching 95 last year, to sitting in the upper 80s to low 90s this year. He’s also seen control issues, and his complex delivery makes that difficult to get back on track. The Pirates shut him down in mid-June, then sent him to Bradenton. His velocity got into the low-90s, still down from last year, but better than his early-season time in Altoona. He worked a lot on his changeup, but has still dealt with control issues since returning to Altoona earlier this month.
Future Outlook: Once one of the top prospects in the system, the chances of Solometo starting in the Majors are starting to be in doubt. What works to his favor is that he’s only in his age 21 season, giving him plenty of time to develop. He’ll need to bump the velocity back up, as his changeup doesn’t have much separation from the current fastball levels. The more important thing will be fixing his control issues, which he didn’t have last year at the same level. He’s got a chance for three average or better pitches from the left side, with a funky delivery that can add deception, as long as he’s controlling his pitches. He should return to Altoona in 2025, aiming to get back on track as a starter.[/ppp_patron_only]
KEINER DELGADO, INF, BRADENTON
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .226/.317/.349, 8 HR, 20 SB, 342 PA (A)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 50 Hit; 40 Power; 60 Run; 55 Field at 2B; 50 Arm
Development: The Pirates added Delgado in a trade for JT Brubaker earlier this season. He’s regarded as a smart baseball player, and was one of the best hitters in the FCL last season. He hasn’t had the same success in Single-A this year, but has improved his power production, which grades below-average. He’s a plus runner, and grades as an above-average fielder, with his average arm limiting him to second base. Delgado will need to improve his power going forward, while maintaining the plate patience he had last year, which resulted in more walks than strikeouts.
Future Outlook: The defensive value and the plus run tool could get Delgado to the majors, especially if he takes more of an approach toward contact. Delgado, like many other Bradenton hitters, seems to be focused heavily on power at this level. He grades up due to his baseball instincts and work ethic. Next year could see him move up to High-A, but he’ll need to improve his stat line before making the jump to Double-A and having a strong outlook as a future starter in the big leagues. He’s currently in his age-20 season, so he has plenty of time to develop.[/ppp_patron_only]
LONNIE WHITE JR., CF, GREENSBORO
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029 | Trend: DOWN
Stats: .167/.278/.355, 14 HR, 11 SB, 334 PA
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 60 Power; 35 Hit; 60 Run; 55 Field in CF; 50 Arm
Development: White was an over-slot prep signing, drafted 64th overall in 2021. He missed a lot of time the last two years with injuries, which stalled his development. He’s showing his plus power and plus run tools this year in Greensboro, but has posted strikeout numbers that show his hit tool needs some work. He’s got the chance to stick in center field, due to athleticism that had him on pace to be a two-sport athlete at Penn State, where he would have played wide receiver.
Future Outlook: White’s power and speed, plus his defense in center, makes him a prospect in the lower levels to watch. He has some alarming swing and miss at times, which leaves him hitting nothing but homers, and reducing his impact on the bases. Due to lost development time, he could spend another year in High-A in 2025, working on his contact skills. He’s in his age-21 season, so there’s time for him to develop his swing and approach at the plate.[/ppp_patron_only]
ANTWONE KELLY, RHP, BRADENTON
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: 3.90 ERA, 61:27 K/BB, 62.1 IP (A)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 93-95, 98 Four-Seam; Mid-80s Changeup; Upper 80s Cutter; Mid-90s Sinker; Mid-80s Slider
Development: Kelly has a five pitch mix, with two variations of a slider and two fastballs that both sit mid-90s, touching 97-98 MPH frequently. His changeup is looking like an above-average to plus pitch. He’s also made strides with his control this year as the season has progressed. He missed about two months of the season with an injury, and just returned this past weekend. Even with the downtime, he’s already exceeded his career innings total, and is overall having a positive year developing in the Bradenton rotation.
Future Outlook: Kelly is one of the most electric arms in the lower levels, with the chance for three above-average or better pitches between his four-seam, cutter, and changeup. His improved control makes it more likely that he can remain in the rotation long-term. The 20-year-old should move up to Greensboro in 2025, and profiles as a Major League rotation option after a few more years of development.[/ppp_patron_only]
TSUNG-CHE CHENG, INF, ALTOONA
CV: 25 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027 | Trend: DOWN
Stats: .220/.322/.352, 11 HR, 14 SB, 434 PA (AA)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 55 Hit; 45 Power; 60 Run; 55 Field at 2B; 55 Arm
Development: Cheng is one of the best pure hitters in the system, but has seen a flaw to his approach in the upper levels, leading to below-average numbers in 2024. His numbers in Double-A have declined compared to last year, with his swing and miss increasing. He’s also hitting for more power this year and drawing more walks, but his hit profile works better with a contact approach. He has plus speed on the bases, and can handle the shortstop position, but profiles better long-term as an above-average second baseman. He rarely takes a pitch off, and is one of the more focused players in the system.
Future Outlook: The Pirates have no shortage of hitting prospects who have struggled this year while improving their power outcomes. Cheng is one of the more extreme cases, as his future profile as a starter is a contact heavy middle infielder with above-average defense. He might be able to hit for double-digit home runs one day, but his path to the majors will be hitting for average and getting on base at a high rate.[/ppp_patron_only]
DAVID MATOMA, RHP, FCL PIRATES
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: 0.82 ERA, 28:9 K/BB, 22 IP (Rk)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 95-97, 100 Fastball; 85-88 Gyro Slider; 82-83 Changeup
Development: Matoma was throwing 89-92 MPH when he signed out of Uganda at the start of 2023. The six-foot, 154 pounder has since increased his velocity, sitting in the 95-97 MPH range, and hitting as high as a reported 101 MPH. He pairs the fastball with a hard gyro slider, and a low-80s changeup. Playing in his first season in the states, Matoma was one of the best pitchers in the FCL, dominating opposing hitters while showing good control.
Future Outlook: With his arm strength and pitch mix, Matoma could move quickly through the minors as a power reliever. He doesn’t have a lot of experience pitching, with a career-high 22 innings this year. He was also in his age-18 season. The Pirates could stretch him out as a long reliever going forward, but he’s got the profile to eventually pitch in the late innings. He should go to Bradenton in 2025, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him earn his way up to Greensboro by the end of the year.[/ppp_patron_only]
TIER SIX: SYSTEM DEPTH
The Pirates made a few trades from their system depth at the deadline, which reduced the players in this tier. These players don’t profile as strong as the two previous tiers when it comes to projecting future starters. They do have the talent to make the majors, though it’s a mix of upper level, high floor bench options or lower level lottery tickets to be starters. Each of these players has at least one tool that stands out in a big way, along with a clear question mark with their game.
YORDANY DE LOS SANTOS, SS, BRADENTON
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .344/.407/.505, 5 HR, 24 SB, 216 PA (Rk); .150/.271/.200, 0 HR, 4 SB, 71 PA (A)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: Hit 50; Power 45; Run 60; Arm 50; Field 55 at SS
Development: The Pirates gave De Los Santos an aggressive push to Single-A in 2023 at the age of 18. That didn’t go well, and he eventually moved down to the FCL. He returned to rookie ball this year, putting up better numbers, while showing off plus base running and above-average defense that could keep him at shortstop. He moved back to Single-A at the end of the FCL season, but has struggled again making contact at the plate.
Future Outlook: De Los Santos profiles as a guy who can stick at shortstop long-term, while providing value on the bases. He has below-to-fringe average power, and will need to hit for average and get on base to maximize his other tools. He should return to A-ball for his age-20 season next year, where he’ll look to put up better numbers than his brief appearances over the last two seasons.[/ppp_patron_only]
OMAR ALFONZO, C/1B, GREENSBORO
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .253/.353/.388, 8 HR, 1 SB, 354 PA (A); .224/.333/.367, 2 HR, 1 SB, 57 PA (A+)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: Hit 45; Power 55; Speed 30; Field 45 at Catcher; Arm 50
Development: Alfonso was one of the most consistent hard hitters at the plate in Bradenton this year, though he put the ball on the ground a bit to much to maximize the hard contact. He shows fringe-average abilities behind the plate, but has shown positive strides with his defensive work. He’s also played first base, where his power could play if he makes an adjustment at the plate. Alfonso shows good plate patience, drawing double-digit walk rates throughout his career.
Future Outlook: The biggest value for Alfonzo would be his ability to stick behind the plate. His father, Eliezer, was a former catcher in the Majors, and Omar shows comfort at the position. Right now, his game power has a big separation from his raw power abilities. That gap could be closed with more fly balls to maximize his consistent hard contact. He should remain behind the plate going forward, but could profile easier as a starter at first base if the power starts to click.[/ppp_patron_only]
MATT GORSKI, CF, INDIANAPOLIS
CV: 35 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .241/.302/.508, 18 HR, 9 SB, 355 PA (AAA)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: Hit 40; Power 60; Run 55, Field 60 in CF, Arm 70
Development: Gorski has shown plus power in Triple-A, though that has come with below-average contact skills, leading to a 31.1% strikeout rate. He grades as a plus defensive center fielder, with an elite arm that could play in right field. The power could also play in right, with Gorski already setting career highs in home runs (18) and doubles (21) this season at the highest minor league level.
Future Outlook: The Pirates left Gorski unprotected in the Rule 5 draft this past offseason, and he went unselected. That indicates that his power and defense alone don’t make him ready for the Majors. The outlook may change with his increase in power production in Triple-A, but his swing and miss and below-average contact skills are still a concern. He’s got enough tools to envision a Major League future, but he also turns 27 next year, and is more likely to make it as a bench outfielder and power bat off the bench. If he can improve the swing and miss as a late bloomer, he could still have a path to starting.[/ppp_patron_only]
EDDIE RYNDERS, 3B, FCL PIRATES
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2030 | Trend: NEW
Stats: N/A
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: Hit 45; Power 60; Run 50; Field 50 at 3B; Arm 55+
Development: The Pirates drafted Rynders in the third round this year out of the prep ranks. He was drafted as a shortstop, but profiles as a future third baseman due to a lack of quickness at short. He did improve his run speed this spring from below-average to average. That grade could drop as he fills out his 6′ 2″, 195 pound frame. He added strength as a senior, and has a hit tool that is geared toward power.
Future Outlook: It’s likely that Rynders will get more time at third base early in his career, since the Pirates drafted two other prep shortstops ahead of him who profile better at the position. His profile as a power hitting third baseman could make the majors. He has an easy swing with an ability to hit to all fields, but will need to focus on improving the hit tool in order to maximize his chances of reaching the big leagues.[/ppp_patron_only]
MITCH JEBB, 2B, GREENSBORO
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .258/.349/.349, 6 HR, 37 SB, 453 PA (A+)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: Hit 55; Power 35; Run 60; Field 50 at 2B, Arm 45
Development: Jebb was taken in the second round last year for his advanced plate patience and swing decisions, leading to an above-average hit tool. He started the season hitting poorly, while striking out a lot in Greensboro. Since the month of June, he’s consistently shown the elite plate patience, while improving his contact skills since July. He has also shown plus speed on the bases, leading to 37 steals in 45 attempts.
Future Outlook: The path to the big leagues is a high-contact, speedy middle infielder. Jebb profiles as a second baseman, due to a fringe-average arm. The Pirates have been working him in center field, which is a better spot for his offensive profile. He’s a hard nosed player who goes full effort on every play, allowing his tools to play up. He’s unlikely to be more than an average starter, but he also has a high enough floor that he should at least reach the majors as a bench player.[/ppp_patron_only]
ESMERLYN VALDEZ, 1B, BRADENTON
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT
Stats: .222/.335/.440, 18 HR, 2 SB, 394 PA (A)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: Hit 40; Power 60; Run 30; Arm 45; Defense 45 at 1B
Development: Valdez has emerged as one of the best power hitters in the lower levels, consistently putting up high exit velocities, and hitting 18 homers and 17 doubles so far in Bradenton. He doesn’t have a lot of speed, and has an arm that grades average at best. This limits him to first base in the future, where his power could still play. His hit tool has been below-average, with a 32.3% strikeout rate.
Future Outlook: He’s got the power to be a future first baseman in the Majors, but Valdez will need to improve his hit tool by cutting down on the strikeouts. He’s shown a better ability to get on base in the past in rookie ball, with better strikeout rates. There’s a chance he’s selling out too much for power. He should move up to High-A next season, and will likely need to hit for a better average before he takes the next jump.[/ppp_patron_only]
WILL TAYLOR, CF, BRADENTON
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029 | Trend: NEW
Stats: .179/.361/.357, 1 HR, 1 SB, 36 PA (A)
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Scouting Notes: 45+ Hit; 45 Power; 55 Run; 55 Field in CF; 50 Arm
Development: Taylor was a first round talent in 2021, and reportedly received an offer of first round money. He turned that down to go to Clemson to be a two-sport player. In his freshman year, he tore his ACL playing football, which required two surgeries and lowered his speed from 70-grade to above-average. The speed was a big part of what made him a first round talent. The Pirates drafted him in the fifth round this year. He still grades as a potential above-average center fielder. He keeps his swings to the strike zone, but misses on non-fastballs. His power is fringe-average, and a fractured wrist in 2024 could impact that in the short-term.
Future Outlook: The Pirates will need to develop Taylor’s ability to hit breaking and offspeed pitches. He could also benefit from adding power to his game. A former two-time state wrestling champion, Taylor has good core strength. His path to the majors is with his remaining speed and defense in center field. If he can improve one of the hitting tools to average or better, he has a good shot of reaching the big leagues.[/ppp_patron_only]
*****
There are six more players in Tier Six who grade outside of the top 30.
REMAINING TIER SIX: Jase Bowen, OF, Altoona; Estuar Suero, OF, FCL Pirates; Malcom Nunez, 1B, Indianapolis; Axiel Plaz, C, Bradenton; Edward Florentino, OF, DSL Pirates; Kervin Pichardo, SS, Altoona
TIER SEVEN: SLEEPERS
The final tier is a large batch of sleepers that round out and exceed the top 50 by two players. A few of these guys could be bumped up into the system depth list if you really like them. There are also a few Tier Eight players who could join this group for the same reasons. Some of the newer players and some of the lower level guys could rapidly rise over the next year as they gain more experience.
Po-Yu Chen, RHP, Altoona; Carlos Castillo, RHP, Bradenton; Nick Cimillo, 1B, Altoona; Javier Rivas, 3B, Greensboro; Aaron Shortridge, RHP, Indianapolis; Josh Hartle, LHP, FCL Pirates; Matt Ager, RHP, FCL Pirates; Bralyn Brazoban, OF, DSL Pirates; Kendrick Herrera, SS, DSL Pirates; Emmanuel Chapman, RHP, Altoona; Owen Kellington, RHP, 60-Day IL; Carlos Jimenez, RHP, Bradenton; Wilber Dotel, RHP, Greensboro; Tony Blanco Jr., 1B, FCL Pirates; Irwin Ramirez, RHP, DSL Pirates; Sammy Siani, OF, Altoona
