There’s no way you could classify Pittsburgh Pirates first round pick Konnor Griffin as a sleeper. The ninth overall pick had the best assortment of tools in the 2024 draft, with a lot of potential 70-grades, and the chance to be a plus power/speed/defense center fielder.
The Pirates received positive grades for their 2024 draft, due to the selection of Griffin, along with several other high upside prep picks in their first five picks.
What I liked about the middle rounds of the draft is they took several players who are coming off down seasons, but who each had much higher upsides heading into the year. If the Pirates can turn some of those players around, they’ll end up with some mid-round steals.
Here are some of the bigger potential sleepers from the Pirates’ 2024 draft.
3rd Round: Josh Hartle
Heading into the season, Josh Hartle looked like he could be a first round talent. The left-handed starter from Wake Forest had a 2.81 ERA in 102.1 innings last year, with a 140:24 K/BB. He didn’t repeat that in 2024, with a 5.79 ERA in 74.2 innings.
Hartle saw a decline with his stuff, and there are a few possible reasons. One that has been mentioned by multiple outlets is that he put too much emphasis on a new cutter this year. The extreme usage of the pitch could have hurt his fastball, which isn’t an elite pitch, but works well with his potential plus control. The control also took a step back.
Three years ago, Hartle was seen as a first/second rounder out of high school, before removing his name from the draft to attend a strong pitching program at Wake Forest. He’s got a five-pitch mix, with his fastball being fringe-average, sitting around 90 MPH. He relies on his secondary stuff to get results.
If the Pirates can refine the secondary, and get his control back on track, Hartle could emerge as a future MLB starting pitcher.
6th Round: Matt Ager
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]Matt Ager started the season in the UC Santa Barbara rotation, after a breakout sophomore season where he had a 3.12 ERA in 92.1 innings. He put up a 4.02 ERA in 62.2 innings this year, eventually being moved to the bullpen, where he had better results.
The fastball from Ager sits 90-93, but has gotten up to 96. His 6′ 6″, 225 pound frame leaves hope that he might be able to improve that velocity in the future. He pairs the fastball with a slider that flashes plus, working almost exclusively off the two-pitch mix. He also throws a 12-to-6 curveball and a mid-80s changeup. Ager pounds the strike zone with average control.
One thing that may have impacted him this year is an oblique strain. He could ride the fastball/slider to being a reliever in the majors one day. The Pirates in the past few years have sent guys like Ager to A-ball, in order to improve their secondary offerings. If he can develop his pitches enough, he’s got the frame and pitch mix to be a starter in the majors.
5th Round: Will Taylor
In 2021, outfielder Will Taylor was seen as a first round talent. He opted to attend Clemson as a two-sport athlete, playing football in addition to baseball. He went down his freshman year in football with an ACL injury, which required two surgeries. This also reduced his 70-grade speed to a 55-grade, at best.
Taylor’s value largely came from the speed grade. He’s got fringe-average power, and a hit tool that could develop into average. He stands out on the defensive side as a potential above-average center fielder, due to his remaining speed and an average arm.
There’s some risk here with Taylor, due to his injury dropping his speed grade. Even with the speed, he would need to hit to have value. If the Pirates can improve the hit tool, they’ll add value to the speedy center fielder
8th Round: Gavin Adams
Florida State right-hander Gavin Adams is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, and didn’t pitch during the 2024 college season. He pitched for Indian River State College in 2023, with 44 strikeouts in 26.1 innings. He’s also hit 100-101 MPH with his fastball in the past.
This is not the first time that the Pirates have drafted a college pitcher actively recovering from Tommy John. They did the same thing with Florida LHP Hunter Barco in the second round of the 2022 draft. Barco has since increased his velocity to the mid-90s, while refining his secondary stuff with better pitches for the upper levels.
Adams has a 6′ 4″, 195 pound frame, and could get back to throwing upper 90s with the ability tp hit triple digits. He doesn’t have much in terms of secondary stuff, with an average slider, and a fringe-average changeup.
If the Pirates can rehab him back to full health, while also improving the velocity and secondary stuff like they did with Barco, then Adams could end up a sleeper to at least work out of a future MLB bullpen.
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