The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Wednesday’s action with a 23-26 record, which is good enough for third place in the current NL Central rankings. They rank fourth in the division both in terms of runs scored and runs allowed.
Recently, the Pirates have received some boosts to their roster, with the most notable additions being 2023 first overall pick Paul Skenes to the rotation, and 2020 first rounder Nick Gonzales to the offense. This roster is looking like a group that can at least post a winning season, with a lot of upside spread throughout the roster.
As the start of a look through the entire system, today I’m breaking down the talent quality of the Major League roster, looking at the Current Value of current Pirates. The breakdown below separates players into four tiers: Above-Average Starters, Average Starters, Fringe-Average Starters, and Bench Players.
The quick summary is that the Pirates have a few too many players in the final two categories who are being relied upon as starters. That said, they are seeing a growing group of above-average producers, which keeps this team interesting each night.
Above-Average (55+ CV)
I’m not going to break down this group of players into plus and above-average, which would be the divide between a 55 Current Value and a 60+ grade. Instead, I’m going to highlight that everyone in this group has a chance to be above-average in 2024, with the chance for more from some players.
Oneil Cruz, SS – Cruz has the highest upside of any position player, regardless of where he plays on the field. He features one of the hardest swings in the Majors, leading to some of the hardest contact the game has ever seen. There are some consistency issues, which drive Pirates fans and media crazy. The problem? Cruz can coast to being an average starter, and can be one of the best in the game when he applies his talents consistently. The frustration comes when Cruz trends more toward the league-average baseline, rather than living up to an achievable potential as one of the game’s best.
Bryan Reynolds, OF – Reynolds has put up league-average numbers the last few years, but had a 6.3 WAR in 2021. He’s a bat-first outfielder who hasn’t been hitting for the same power this year that he’s shown in previous seasons. In his best season, Reynolds had a .220 isolated power, with good on-base abilities. This year, he’s down to .149, with similar K/BB ratios. His issue has been consistency and quality of contact. Looking deeper into his numbers, the biggest change this season is that his swing rate inside the zone is 67.2%, which is a career low. He had a career high of 75.4% in 2021. His zone contact rate was a career high of 84.6% in 2021, and is a career low 80.8% this year. It seems that rather than being selective in the zone, Reynolds should get back to attacking everything.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B – Hayes is currently out with a back injury. In 2023, he won his first Gold Glove at third base, while also hitting enough to rank as the ninth best third baseman in the game by fWAR. Like most hitters on the team, Hayes saw a decline in his offense this year, after seeing improvements last season. He started going downhill faster before the IL placement with the back issue. The defense from Hayes also dipped at the start of the season. He’s got above-average potential when healthy, though I doubt the current hitting approach in the system will maximize the offensive side of his game.
Paul Skenes, RHP – In his second MLB start, Skenes showed why he was the number one overall pick last year,
Check back at PiratesProspects.com tomorrow for a look at the depth out of Triple-A Indianapolis.
