Major League Baseball released their Statcast bat tracking data this month, providing a deeper dive into the swing of each hitter. I took my first look at this data last week in Statcast Heroes.
This week, I wanted to look at how each hitter on the Pittsburgh Pirates have changed since the data became publicly available.
I’ll also dive into the differences in hitter’s counts versus pitcher’s counts, and take an early look at Nick Gonzales.
SWING CHANGES SINCE STATCAST EXPANSION
It’s been over a week since the first public Statcast bat data has been released. Here are the Pirates hitters prior to the release of the data:
What I wanted to track this week is whether there have been any changes since the start of the public tracking. The chart below shows the results since the Statcast data went live.
With the exception of Bryan Reynolds, every Pirates hitter has seen an increase in their average bat speed during this time. Rowdy Tellez leads the team with an 0.9 MPH increase, while Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, and Jared Triolo are all at 0.8 MPH.
There are three standouts for the frequency of fast swings. Tellez (12.7%), Cruz (12.4%), and Andrew McCutchen (10.3%) have all seen double-digit percentage point increases with their fast swing rates. This puts Cruz swinging 75 MPH or harder on nearly 85% of his swings. Michael A. Taylor and Jared Triolo are the only Pirates hitters who have seen a decline in their rate of fast swings.
Looking at the Squared Up per Swing numbers, which identifies how often a hitter squares up on a pitch by how many swings they take, there are mixed results. Cruz (7.7%), Connor Joe (7.2%), and Reynolds (6.5%) are all making better contact on a more frequent basis. On the opposite extreme, Tellez (-9.9%) and Suwinski (-9.3%) have both seen a decline in their ability to square up pitches.
I’m also focusing on how many blasts a hitter receives, based on how much contact they make. The biggest jump was Cruz, who increased 22.1 percentage points. Triolo (9.5%), McCutchen (8.6%), and Joe (7.7%) also saw increases. On the opposite end, Tellez dropped 13.5 percentage points, Taylor dropped 6.6, and Suwinski dropped 3.1 percentage points.
Cruz increased his swing length by four inches. McCutchen increased two inches and Tellez increased one. Reynolds and Triolo both lost an inch on their swings.
Cruz has seen a 35.5% strikeout rate and a .167/.194/.367 line during this stretch. He’s swinging faster, more frequently, and has more blasts when he makes contact. He’s also squaring up on swings. His competitive swing rate has dropped, and the lengthened swing may be leading to the swing and miss increase.
HITTER COUNTS VS PITCHER COUNTS
One thing I wanted to dive into this week was the difference between hitter’s counts and pitcher’s counts. I defined a hitter’s count as any count that was 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, or 3-1. Below are the results during hitter’s counts.[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]
The pitcher’s counts I used are 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2. The 2-2 count could be called even, but the pitcher has one pitch to waste with two strikes, giving an advantage with two strikes. Below are the numbers during these counts.
The goal here is to see whether hitters have two different swings or approaches, depending on the situation.
Every single hitter drops their bat speed and fast swing rate in the pitcher’s counts. Suwinski (-3.2%), Tellez (-2.5%), Cruz (-2.3%), and Joe (-2.3%) have the biggest average bat speed drops. The smallest change comes from Triolo (-0.5%).
The biggest drops in fast swing rate belong to Suwinski (27.5%), McCutchen (26.1%), and Joe (21.5%). The only player without a double-digit drop in fast swing percentage points is Triolo (-2.5%). As shown above, Triolo has the lowest average bat speed and fast swing rates on the team. His approach seems to be the same, regardless.
In terms of shortening the swing, both Suwinski and Taylor shave three inches off in pitcher’s counts. Joe cuts two inches off his swing, while Cruz drops one. Tellez and Reynolds each add an inch to their swings in pitcher’s counts. Reynolds actually sees an increase in squared up/swing and blast/contact rates in pitcher’s counts.
Suwinski, McCutchen, and Joe seem to have the most significant changes to their pitcher’s count approaches.
INTRODUCING: THE ALL-NEW, NICK GONZALES
The Pirates called up 2020 first round pick Nick Gonzales, who has shown more confidence and better results in his first 30 plate appearances back in the big leagues. Gonzales is batting .265 with a .768 OPS and two homers in that span.
He’s featuring a 72.0 MPH average bat speed, with a 16.4% fast swing rate. Gonzales is squaring up on 31.1% of his swings, which is one of the best rates on the team. He’s getting a blast on 22.2% of contact, which is another mark that puts him among the team leaders.
I wrote about Gonzales last month, noting that he’s swinging the bat more often, with fewer strikeouts. He still has some swing and miss against offspeed and breaking stuff, but the more aggressive approach is paying off for him. He’s posting below-average chase and whiff rates, but his barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity of 93.8 MPH are all well above-average.
It’s a small sample size for Gonzales, but he’s showing improved skills at the plate, better than his previous MLB stints. Compared to 2024, the early results from Gonzales are seeing an increase in exit velocity (85.5 to 93.8 MPH), launch angle (8.7 to 23.9 degrees), and barrel rate (3.7% to 14.3%). This looks like a better hitting version of Gonzales, without the need for small sample disclaimers.
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