In 2020, I was tasked with completing the Baseball America Prospect Handbook section on the Pittsburgh Pirates. This required doing the top 30 prospect report and writing up individual player reports for their annual book. One thing that always stands out to me about this process were the reports on Nick Gonzales.
I hadn’t seen much of Gonzales, who was drafted seventh overall in 2020 out of New Mexico State. I was relying on BA’s scouting reports from the draft. The loftiest had him as a future batting champion, with a chance to win multiple times. I’ll be honest that I’ve never seen that batting title potential out of Gonzales in the years since. That is, until this season.
Gonzales has always been a hard worker. He’s a “first to the field, last to leave” type of guy. He’s going to go all-out with his full energy spent on every play on the field. He’s got some of the quickest hands of any hitter in the system, with some of the best hand-eye coordination, and quick powerful wrists for a shortened-reaction swing. This profile should lead to good hitting results. There has been something wrong with the swing from Gonzales since he entered pro ball.
At the end of 2022, I talked with Gonzales about some of the changes he was working on at the plate. The biggest issue was that his bat wouldn’t stay in the zone long enough. His hand-eye coordination and quick bat speed was working against him. He could put the bat to the ball out in front of the plate, but if the pitch he was trying to get in front of was a breaking pitch, his bat didn’t stay in the zone long enough and would swing up over those offerings.
Below is a look at some highlights from Gonzales in the majors in 2023. You’ll notice that he’s almost rushing out to hit the ball in front of the plate, with a quick and somewhat compact swing that leads to speed out of the box.
The above are the highlights from Gonzales, so the results are going to look good. That wasn’t the case when you look at his batted ball data from the 2023 season, via Baseball Savant.
The only area where Gonzales rated average or better was with his chase rate. He wasn’t finding the barrel or sweet spot, he wasn’t hitting the ball hard, and he wasn’t hitting.
Gonzales is having much better results in 2024.
[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]He started the year batting .358/.431/.608 in Triple-A with four homers and 14 doubles in 120 at-bats. He’s since been hitting .313/.375/.547 in the majors across 64 at-bats, with three homers and four doubles. His third homer of the year came on Wednesday, and the video below shows a much different swing from the 2023 highlights.
Nicky G goes yard. pic.twitter.com/TK0Owef5oW
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) May 29, 2024
The biggest difference is that Gonzales has a more upright stance, starting from a power pose. He also looks just slightly more patient, allowing a beat to react to the pitch, rather than rushing his bat to make quick contact out in front. On the hanging curveball above, he had a slight timing hitch to his swing, before unloading on the high pitch to pull it over the left field wall.
In the same game, Gonzales doubled on a changeup that was below the strike zone. He also singled on a 96 MPH sinker that looked like it would have otherwise hit his knees. Each time, there was a slightly delayed and patient reaction, followed by Gonzales using those quick hands and the hand-eye coordination to pick up hits on 79-96 MPH stuff with movement inside and outside of the zone.
The batted ball data looks better this year, as a result of this consistent and more patient approach.
Aside from getting results, Gonzales is finding the barrel, hitting the ball hard, and finding the sweet spot for good launch angles at elite rates. These results point to the overall numbers being legit. His bat speed is below average, and rarely in the 75+ MPH range for fast swings. However, the precision of his contact might be allowing him to swing at a slower rate.
We don’t have bat speed data for the 2023 season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Gonzales had a quicker bat for those results. His swing this year looks more steady, and his timing and contact location is what is leading to the offense.
For the first time, Gonzales is looking to me like a potential batting champion. That might not be in 2024, but it could happen in his career.
He’s got the skills to have a natural “see the ball, hit the ball” approach at the big league level. His reaction times are quick enough that you can’t even throw off his tracking with a 96 MPH sinker that moves way inside. He’s still got the potential to put a good swing on bad pitches and generate a hit.
Overall, Gonzales looks more confident. From the taller, power stance, to the patient delay to allow the ball to travel to him, he’s looking much more relaxed this time around in the big leagues. I think what we’re seeing from him is legit, and it’s a boost the Pirates’ offense desperately needed.
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