On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Pirates played their 41st game of the season. The lineup that manager Derek Shelton submitted was the 40th different batting order. It makes you wonder if the offensive struggles might be due to the lack of consistency with each player’s role on offense.
The only consistency the Pirates have shown has been with Bryan Reynolds. The outfielder has hit second in the order in every single game this year. Reynolds is also one of four players who has a wOBA and a wRC+ greater than league average. Those four players, entering the game on Sunday:
- Connor Joe (.380 wOBA/146 wRC+)
- Joey Bart (.353/127)
- Bryan Reynolds (.319/104)
- Oneil Cruz (.330/112)
That’s not a good output, to say the least. Bart has been moved to the backup catching role, which means the Pirates only have three above-average hitters in their lineup on most nights. To their credit, the Pirates had Reynolds, Cruz, and Joe in the 2-4 spots of the lineup on Sunday, batting behind Andrew McCutchen, who took over the leadoff role recently.
Here is a rundown of each spot in the lineup as it stands prior to game 42, and very likely, lineup number 41.
BATTING FIRST, ANDREW MCCUTCHEN
On April 22nd, Andrew McCutchen hit leadoff against the Brewers, batting first for the first time this season. Since that point, McCutchen has made 13 starts batting at the top of the order. That’s not only the most during this span, but it’s the most of any Pirates hitter batting leadoff all season.
Connor Joe has hit leadoff twice when McCutchen has been on the bench. There was a stretch of four games at the end of April where Ke’Bryan Hayes moved from his normal role batting third, to batting leadoff. McCutchen started in the cleanup spot in two of those games, against Oakland.
McCutchen has a .768 OPS this year in the leadoff role. He also has a .340 wOBA and a 119 wRC+. His numbers batting fourth and fifth are not nearly as productive, rating below-average. Having him remain in the leadoff role looks like a good call for now.
TIMES BATTING LEADOFF
- McCutchen – 13
- Cruz – 11
- Joe – 11
- Hayes – 4
- Olivares – 1
- Triolo – 1
BATTING SECOND, BRYAN REYNOLDS
As mentioned above, Reynolds is the number two hitter. He’s the only player in the lineup who has a fixed spot, and it’s leading to slightly above-average results.
Reynolds hit .261/.370/.522 in the first six games with McCutchen or Joe batting leadoff. He had two hits in 16 plate appearances with Hayes inexplicably moved to leadoff for a four game stretch. Heading into Sunday’s game, he was batting .207/.303/.379 following McCutchen and Joe.
The results haven’t been consistent, but Reynolds is the only constant in this lineup.
Batting Second
- Reynolds – 41
- Everyone Else – 0
BATTING THIRD, KE’BRYAN HAYES
He’s currently on the IL with a back injury, but Hayes is the second most consistent player on the team, getting 29 starts in the three spot. Hayes has average numbers in this spot, which pairs well with his defense. He struggled in his four games at the top of the order.
In his career, Hayes has actually hit best batting second or fifth. Reynolds does well at either second or third.
Oneil Cruz hit third on Sunday, and has started there in three of the last four games. He hit fourth in one of those starts. Cruz is putting up his best numbers this year batting fourth, but is also a well above-average performer batting third.
Batting Third
- Hayes – 29
- Cruz – 5
- Joe – 5
- Tellez – 1
- Triolo – 1
BATTING CLEANUP, JACK SUWINSKI
This is probably the most telling issue with the offense. Seven hitters have batted cleanup this season, with no single player starting more than ten games. That leading honor belongs to Jack Suwinski, who has a .550 OPS as the cleanup hitter. Suwinski has done better batting sixth, where he has a .712 OPS and around average advanced metrics.
Rowdy Tellez and Connor Joe are tied with eight starts each at cleanup. A lot of those from Joe have come recently. The last time Suwinski hit cleanup was on April 21st. Tellez started the next three games, but has only started one game since. All eight of Joe’s starts batting cleanup have come since April 26th. Those include the start on Sunday.
Joe is doing best this year batting fourth, but is putting up above-average results anywhere in the lineup.
BATTING CLEANUP
- Suwinski – 10
- Joe – 8
- Tellez – 8
- Olivares – 5
- McCutchen – 5
- Cruz – 4
- Bart – 1
BATTING FIFTH, EDWARD OLIVARES
This is a spot that is in shambles. Andrew McCutchen was batting fifth for most of the start of the season, before moving up to leadoff. Edward Olivares has remained a consistent figure in the five spot, with slightly above-average advanced metrics, and a .737 OPS in that spot.
That April 26th date comes up again as a day when Olivares started getting more consistent playing time in the five spot. This followed four starts in a row from Suwinski, who got a few more starts before yielding a few to Tellez.
Since getting more consistent time as the number five hitter, Olivares has struggled, with well below average advanced metrics, and a .583 OPS. In the last four games, he’s only started once as the five hitter, with Tellez, Nick Gonzales, and Jared Triolo also getting starts.
BATTING FIFTH
- Olivares – 14
- McCutchen – 10
- Suwinski – 7
- Tellez – 3
- Davis – 2
- Joe – 2
- Triolo – 1
- Gonzales – 1
- Bart – 1
BATTING SIXTH, ROWDY TELLEZ
Tellez has started eight games as the cleanup hitter, and three more as the number five hitter. His most consistent spot is batting sixth, which he’s done 12 times. His numbers are close to average in this spot. He dropped down to seventh on Sunday, where he’s only hit two other times: April 29th and March 31st.
Behind Tellez, Jared Triolo has gotten the most starts at the six spot, adding his eighth start on Sunday. Triolo has been below-average here, and in every spot except batting eighth. This spot is a mess right now. There have been six different starters in the last seven games, with Triolo being the only player with two starts.
BATTING SIXTH
- Tellez – 12
- Triolo – 8
- Suwinski – 5
- Taylor – 3
- Cruz – 3
- Bart – 3
- Grandal – 2
- Olivares – 2
- Davis – 2
- Gonzales – 1
BATTING SEVENTH, JARED TRIOLO
Triolo batting seventh and Olivares batting fifth are the third most frequent lineup spots for the Pirates, behind Reynolds second and Hayes third.
This is still going on. Triolo has started two of the last five games at this spot, before moving up to sixth on Sunday. His numbers have been slightly above-average batting eighth.
Oneil Cruz got a long stretch here from April 22nd through the 27th, which helped him turn around his season. He put up a .443 wOBA, a 188 wRC+, and a .412/.474/.529 line. Since then, he’s mostly been moved up to third or fourth, but dropped down to seventh most recently on May 6th.
BATTING SEVENTH
- Triolo – 14
- Cruz – 10
- Tellez – 3
- Suwinski – 3
- Davis – 3
- Joe – 3
- Taylor – 2
- Grandal – 1
- Olivares – 1
- Bart – 1
BATTING EIGHTH, ALSO JARED TRIOLO
Triolo leads in two spots in the batting order, but has more starts at the seven spot. He’s only started two of the last six games here, and hasn’t gotten much time this low since April 24th. Most of his starts at the eight spot were early in the year, possibly leading to Triolo getting gradually moved up.
This is slowly becoming the catching spot, with three of the last four starts going to Joey Bart or Yasmani Grandal.
BATTING EIGHTH
- Triolo – 12
- Taylor – 9
- Bart – 6
- Davis – 5
- Cruz – 3
- Tellez – 2
- Grandal – 2
- Suwinski – 1
- Williams – 1
BATTING NINTH, ALIKA WILLIAMS
On Sunday, Alika Williams got the start at the bottom of the order, breaking a tie with Michael A. Taylor. Williams now has 14 starts batting ninth, compared to 13 from Taylor. Taylor has been performing best batting eighth, while Williams has mostly batted ninth. The Pirates seem to be consistently using this as a second leadoff spot, adding a guy with some speed who might set the table when the lineup turns back over.
BATTING NINTH
- Williams – 14
- Taylor – 13
- Davis – 9
- Bart – 2
- Delay – 1
- Suwinski – 1
- Triolo – 1
THE MID-APRIL SHUFFLE
The Pirates had two significant changes to their batting order routines this year, which began on April 22nd and continued through April 26th. Prior to April 22nd, they had a team wOBA of .304, which ranked 20th in the game. Their wRC+ of 94 ranked 21st.
Since the 22nd, they’ve fallen to the 29th wOBA (.274) and the 29th wRC+ (74), with only the Cincinnati Reds ranking lower.
The change on April 22nd was to consistently move Andrew McCutchen to the leadoff spot. Jack Suwinski was moved out of the cleanup spot, which also wasn’t a bad move. Oneil Cruz was briefly moved down in the lineup to help with his struggles, and has since been moved back to the middle of the lineup. Edward Olivares and Connor Joe also saw consistent time in the middle of the lineup.
To be fair, these haven’t been bad moves, even if they aren’t represented each night. McCutchen has hit better in the leadoff spot. Suwinski was struggling, and should have been moved down. Cruz improved his hitting after being moved down. Joe has continued to hit, but Olivares has struggled since this time.
LEAGUE RANKINGS BY SPOT
Here is how the Pirates rank in the league this year, by each spot in the order.
Spot. wOBA/wRC+ Ranking
- 18/18
- 17/18
- 17/18
- 16/18
- 24/25
- 23/25
- 29/28
- 16/17
- 16/20
The Pirates don’t have a single average or better ranking. Even their lone consistent spot in the lineup, the number two spot by Reynolds, is below-average.
The top four spots in the order rank slightly below-average. The 5-7 spots are where the problem lies. Those spots are among the worst in the league. On nights where the top four spots produce, the 5-7 spots are still a problem. These spots have largely been occupied by the following players:
- Edward Olivares – .303 wOBA/93 wRC+
- Rowdy Tellez – .287/49
- Jared Triolo – .290/61
- Jack Suwinski – .291/51
Since the lineup restructuring began on April 22nd, each of those players has seen a decline in these season-long numbers. Olivares has dropped from around average production to the below-average level that the other three have been hitting this year. Tellez, Triolo, and Suwinski don’t look like MLB starters right now.
The Pirates have replaced Triolo by calling up Nick Gonzales, who was hitting well in Triple-A. They’re still going with Tellez and Suwinski as starters. Both have been positioned in the lineup this year in spots that would continue offensive rallies. Both have been moved down lower in the order with their struggles.
This type of move worked to get Cruz back on track. It’s not yet working for Tellez or Suwinski. On the flip side, Triolo started to struggle when he was moved up from the eight spot.
THE BEST PIRATES LINEUP
Looking at the above trends, here is how I would construct a regular lineup with the current Pittsburgh Pirates (and after Ke’Bryan Hayes returns).
- Andrew McCutchen, DH
- Connor Joe, 1B
- Bryan Reynolds, LF
- Oneil Cruz, SS
- Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B
- Edward Olivares/Jack Suwinski, RF
- Nick Gonzales, 2B
- Yasmani Grandal, C
- Michael A. Taylor, CF
McCutchen does well getting on base, but has lost speed. Joe hits the ball far enough and consistently enough to advance McCutchen deeper into scoring position. Reynolds has been below-average at the two spot, but might be better with people on base more often in the three spot, especially with Joe’s team-leading .366 OBP at the two spot.
There is research and a trend that the best hitter should bat second in the lineup, and this is perhaps why the Pirates have been so consistent with Reynolds. The problem is that Reynolds is only their best hitter in theory, and not in execution this year. Joe has been the best all-around hitter on the team this year, with Reynolds getting value from more power potential.
Cruz in the cleanup spot allows him to do the most damage. Moving Hayes down to fifth would give him better opportunities to choose between contact and power, rather than hoping for more power from the three spot.
The problems start to appear in the 6-7 spots. The platoon of Olivares and Suwinski hasn’t been productive, and the Pirates might be better turning to Ji Hwan Bae. The number six spot is often seen as the second leadoff spot, and Bae’s on base ability and speed would work well here. Nick Gonzales is currently getting a shot to upgrade over Jared Triolo at seven.
The catching duo of Grandal and Bart is doing well at eight, and Michael A. Taylor has done well in the nine spot.
LOSER MENTALITIES
I think that constantly shuffling a lineup is a loser mentality. The approach inherently says that the bulk of the players aren’t good enough, and need to be maximized every single day to reach their potential. This might have been the case for the large portion of this rebuild with Derek Shelton as manager. I’m not sure the same approach is productive this year.
The Pirates have a clear top five: McCutchen, Joe, Reynolds, Cruz, Hayes. That’s how I would order them to optimize them each night against any pitcher and any team. I think the constant shuffling with most of these guys is detrimental to consistent success. I also think that Reynolds doesn’t fit in with the trend of putting your best hitter at the number two spot. Reynolds might be the best hitter on the Pirates, but he wouldn’t be batting second for a better offense. He’s a good, not great hitter.
From there, the issue with the team is the lack of depth that can continue hitting and getting on base past the five spot. They have some internal options in Bae and Gonzales, who they’re starting to turn toward. The bottom of the lineup is getting the same below-average results as the top, but also isn’t getting set up by the 6-7 spots.
This isn’t entirely on Shelton. The Pirates don’t have the talent level to field a full competitive lineup, spots 1-9. However, they do have a lineup that could be productive in the top half, if optimized properly. I believe that consistency in roles for the hitters the Pirates have is more important than optimizing their roles each night and expecting these players to be productive with any assignment. Right now, Connor Joe might be the only player who can succeed in that type of environment.
Rather than making up for a lack of talent, Shelton should commit to the lineup having holes in the bottom-half of the middle. The best way to maximize this team, fueled by starting pitching, is to consistently have the top five hitters taking the same large-scale approach to scoring runs every single night, from the first inning on.
THIS WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
I’ve been publishing now for about two months, including one month of the season. Last week I scaled back my workload to adjust the publishing schedule on the site, aiming to reduce burnout. The new publishing schedule will run next week, but will begin in part this week.
This week will see the first update to my rankings. This update will start to incorporate a new classification system that is meant to take prospect rankings beyond the 20-80 scale.
The first change to the weekly schedule is that Tuesday will feature the weekly top performers in the Pirates Prospect Watch, along with the weekly Statcast Heroes article. The old article drops will be broken up throughout the week for a consistent feature schedule.
The daily Pirates Prospect Watch will post the following morning, though I might upload it early some nights. Pirates Prospects Daily will be strictly free newsletter content, with no article on the site.
My overall goal is to give readers content to consume daily, while giving a complete look at the system, and avoiding personal burnout in the process. I’ve done the first two for years, but have never figured out how to avoid burnout by the end of the year. That’s really the challenge I’m trying to conquer this year.
