There were 81 rookie position players this year who received 100 or more plate appearances.
Out of that group, the Pittsburgh Pirates had seven players, which is more than double the rate of an expected average in a 30-team league. The Pirates have been in a rebuild since Ben Cherington took over as the General Manager after the 2019 season. That rebuild started to reach the majors in 2023, with several trade acquisitions and first round picks arriving at the big league level.
The Pirates have an unfortunate development history with their top prospects, lacking a track record of quick results, or players reaching their ceilings in Pittsburgh. The 2023 group was the first chance to show how the new development group under Cherington would fare, and the position players featured the core of this rebuild. Here’s how they performed:
Pirates Rookie Position Players (MLB Rank by wOBA)
13. Jared Triolo, INF – Batting .298/.388/.398, Triolo showed advanced contact skills, along with above-average defense at third base. His offense came with an unsustainable .440 BABIP, and he didn’t hit for much power, despite a 30% strikeout rate. He could emerge as a sleeper for the second base job next year, where there would be less need for power. There are a lot of possible ways his bat could adjust going forward.
51. Henry Davis, RF/C – The 2021 first overall pick arrived two years after he was drafted, hitting .213/.302/.351 with seven homers in 255 plate appearances. Davis struck out 27.8% of the time, which was one of the better marks among Pirates rookies, but part of an alarming trend of strikeout rates soaring once players reached the big leagues. Opposing pitchers only threw in the zone 39.6% of the time against Davis. He swung an average rate at pitches out of the zone — while seeing a higher number of such pitches — and had a below-average contact rate on those pitches.
55. Liover Peguero, INF – Peguero hit .237/.280/.374, showing very similar power as Davis, with more alarming strikeout trends. Peguero’s chase rate of 32.7% was slightly above the MLB average of 31.9%, but his contact rate out of the zone was a detrimental difference (51.7% versus the league average of 62.3%). He does well with pitches inside the zone, but hitters can get him to unsuccessfully expand his swing zone.
62. Ji-Hwan Bae, INF/OF – Bae was one of the more disciplined rookie hitters for the Pirates, with only Endy Rodriguez having a better strikeout rate, to go with a decent walk rate. Bae just didn’t get on base enough, while lacking power. He can play all over the field, and has speed, with one of the best contact rates among Pirates rookies. Bae was 25th overall among all rookie hitters in contact rate. Despite the results, there’s ability and promise to be found with Bae.
63. Endy Rodriguez, C – Rodriguez was the best rookie hitter for the Pirates, even if it didn’t show in the numbers. He led all Pirates rookies in contact rate — both in and out of the zone — while also having the only single-digit whiff rate, and the lowest first-pitch strike rate. As an interesting note, pitchers threw around Rodriguez, with only Henry Davis getting pitched outside of the zone more often. Rodriguez makes contact 65.8% compared to Davis at 57.6%, with the MLB average this year being 62.3%. A mention that Bae was also pitched around, and had a 63.8% contact rate out of the zone.
65. Nick Gonzales, INF – Gonzales had one of the worst swing and miss tendencies among Pirates rookies, with a 15.8% swinging strike rate. He was one of the more aggressive swingers, with the highest swing rate among this group inside the strike zone. Unfortunately, he also had the lowest contact rate inside the zone, which is not a good combo. He spent a lot of time in Triple-A at the end of the season, and returned for a 10.8% swinging strike rate across the final four MLB games.
76. Alika Williams, INF – The Pirates saw something they liked in Williams, acquiring the 24-year-old shortstop out of Double-A from the Rays for Robert Stephenson. The Rays quickly turned Stephenson around, which I wrote about yesterday. The Pirates got results from Williams in Triple-A, with a .305/.384/.531 line in 128 at-bats. He didn’t carry that over to the majors, with one of the worst whiff rates on the team, declining as the season progressed. His Triple-A success is an outlier in his career. If the Pirates instantly found something in the minors, they couldn’t bring it to the majors.
The Good and the Bad
The Pirates had an above-average amount of rookie hitters arriving in the majors, but only one of those hitters performed at an above-average rate. That’s not a good debut.
If there’s one possible silver lining, it’s that the Pirates seemed like they were using the MLB to continue the development of some of these players. Gonzales is a prime example. His swing and miss issues were prohibitive in his first run through the majors. After a lengthy stretch in Triple-A, he started seeing better results after getting better extension with his swing. His sample in the big leagues at the end of the year is small, but the free swinging ways were reduced in that small sample, continuing the trend from Indianapolis.
We have yet to see if the Pirates can quickly adjust these players to the big leagues. Each player offers a certain promise and a certain challenge.
Triolo could benefit from a position. His hitting style at the plate matches his style at third base. He’s always alert at third base, and accurately reactive. The same goes at the plate. He can see and hit most any pitch, but this reactionary approach doesn’t come with power. My thought is a more passive position, like first base, will train his mind to get into the mode of sitting back and waiting for the optimal pitch to hit.
I really like the advanced metrics from Rodriguez and Bae. Neither had strong triple-slash lines, but they both show advanced contact skills, and both had the challenge of playing premium positions. I think Rodriguez could be helped by giving his mind a break from catching for at least one extra day a week. Bae seemed to do better when he was batting at the bottom of a healthy lineup, setting the table for the best guys at the top.
Davis and Peguero both heavily sell out to power with aggressive approaches. These two players are going to be more difficult to coach. They both show tendencies of doing things their own way, which ends up showing in the box with an aggressive power approach. Getting a player to scale back from a power approach, and trusting that the power will still come from a more patient plan, is difficult to say the least. I think Davis could afford to be more aggressive in the zone, while Peguero needs to shrink his zone.
As for Williams, my biggest red flag for pitching coach Oscar Marin is what happened with Robert Stephenson. There was something to be unlocked with Stephenson, and the Rays got there in two weeks and one conversation. The Pirates couldn’t get there, despite having Stephenson in their organization for nine months. They seemingly unlocked something with Williams in Triple-A, but he joined the other rookies who were below-average in the majors.
This raises a question as to whether they accurately identified MLB talent with Williams, or even worse, whether they still have issues getting MLB talent over that Major League hump. This is the same pro scouting team that identified Stephenson as a pickup, and a guy to retain. Stephenson saw a month of success with his new organization, but couldn’t build upon that. Williams saw a month of success with his new organization, but couldn’t build upon that.
The biggest issue with the Pirates has been their inability to successfully transition their young prospects to the majors, while maximizing those ceilings in Pittsburgh. The first impressions from the 2023 class don’t indicate that the problem is solved. These players will make or break the current rebuild, so the Pirates will need to adjust them to the majors, and quickly.
SONG OF THE DAY
