Over the last few days, I’ve been preparing a ranking of every player from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the majors all the way to the prospects in the Dominican Republic. The end goal is to have a ranking of the prospects in the system, along with a view of how the MLB team shapes up, short and long-term.
Long time readers know that I prefer Tiered Rankings over a numerical system. That’s no different for the current rankings I’m working on. I don’t have the minor league rankings ready to publish, though I do have a completed top 50 and about 30 spots that feel right. My top six tiers in the system cover 70 prospects, spanning through all of the current potential future MLB players — 35 grade and higher. By this time next week, you could be reading an article about the top prospects in the system.
I’ll be writing this process out, and publishing how I see the team. The best place to start is the 2024 roster, as it stands right now. The Pirates currently have 48 players on their 40-man roster, with a few pending free agents, and moves that will need to be made after the World Series. Here’s an early look at what we know they’ve got for the 2024 squad.
Tier 1: The Core
Hitters: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes
Pitchers: Mitch Keller, David Bednar
Prospects: N/A
The Pirates have Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes locked up long-term, while Mitch Keller and David Bednar are under control for a few more seasons. These four are the top tier of the system, and they’d be among the top of any system. They’re reliable at their positions, among the best in the league at their positions, and ultimately dependable performers. They’re All-Star candidates. They’re players you have to focus on in important games.
The Pirates could use more players in this tier. That said, you don’t get to this tier without putting in the development work at the MLB level. Each of these players has struggled at times in the majors along the way to get to where they are now.
Tier 2: The Hope
Hitters: Oneil Cruz
Pitchers: None
Prospects: Paul Skenes
These are the best candidates in the system to eventually join “The Core”. Oneil Cruz has some of the highest upside in the entire system, although he’s yet to play a full season in the majors, and is returning from a major ankle injury. He could very well return in 2024 and emerge into the top tier, thanks to his bat.
I wouldn’t expect that top tier performance from Paul Skenes in 2024, though he’s the only player in the minor league system who I’d project with that potential. I could see him joining the MLB rotation in 2024 around Tier 4, and joining the top tier of performers in 2025-26, after some adjusting at the MLB level. Keller joined the top tier of performers in his fifth MLB season, and his ninth full pro season. Skenes could reach that top tier after his second or third full year in pro ball, for perspective on why he’s the top prospect in the system.
Tier 3: The Starters
Hitters: Jack Suwinski
Pitchers: Johan Oviedo
Prospects: N/A
In his first two seasons in the majors, Jack Suwinski has combined for a .215/.322/.436 line with 45 home runs in 906 plate appearances. He’s coming off a season with a 2.8 WAR across 534 plate appearances, while playing passable defense in center field.
Johan Oviedo has a few seasons in the majors, but has settled in with the Pirates since being acquired in last summer’s trade with the Cardinals for Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton. Oviedo made 32 starts this year, with a 4.31 ERA in 177.2 innings, for a 1.8 WAR.
Both of these players have shown the ability to be average starters across a full MLB season. Yet, they haven’t shown enough to lock in long-term spots yet, like the core members above. The Pirates will hope for at least average starting from each in 2024, and maybe further improvements.
The “prospects” for this tier come from the next tier of young starters, who are already in the majors.
Tier 4: The Future
Hitters: Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero, Henry Davis, Jared Triolo, Ji Hwan Bae
Pitchers: Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Quinn Priester, Carmen Mlodzinski, JT Brubaker
Prospects: Jared Jones
This is where the fate of the Pirates’ system rebuild will ultimately be decided. These players will also test the abilities of the Pirates to adjust top prospects to the MLB level. The exception here is JT Brubaker, who fits more with the Tier 3 theme in terms of experience as an average MLB starter, but is dropped to Tier 4 due to reliability, coming off Tommy John surgery. Reliability is the factor here, as none of these players have a great MLB track record in terms of their experience heading into 2024.
On the hitting side, Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero, Henry Davis, and Jared Triolo could all start on any given night. The challenge would be finding spots for them. I also think Ji Hwan Bae could be a fringe-starter with the tools to move into a regular role.
On the pitching side, the trend is toward the bullpen. The Pirates made two shrewd trades in the last year-plus, adding Colin Holderman for Daniel Vogelbach and Dauri Moreta for Kevin Newman. Those two relievers have the potential to reach Bednar’s level, and Holderman might make the jump in the next year. You could almost put him in Tier 3 right now. Carmen Mlodzinski could be a late-inning reliever, or a swingman option. He pitched well in his first season in the bullpen. Quinn Priester struggled in his MLB debut in the rotation, but should get a starter’s workload in 2024.
I’d expect all of these players to begin the 2024 season in Pittsburgh, and all have a chance to jump up a few tiers as average starters or better. The Pirates should add another potential starting pitcher to this mix in 2024 in Jared Jones, who should begin the year in the Indianapolis rotation.
Tier 5: Contending Bench
Hitters: Alfonso Rivas, Joshua Palacios, Miguel Andujar, Connor Joe, Tucupita Marcano, Andrew McCutchen, Jason Delay
Pitchers: Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras, Jose Hernandez, Andre Jackson
Prospects: Nick Gonzales
You could justify any one of these players in the majors, though likely in bench and bullpen roles. That said, these are guys who you could feel comfortable starting at various positions throughout the season when injuries arise, while seeing decent results. This is the depth. Some of these players will emerge as potential starters. Others will remain as strong MLB part-time options. And yet, the Pirates might not even bring back all of these players.
On the hitting side, Alfonso Rivas might be the best defensive option at first base. I think Joshua Palacios did enough this year to be in line for a bench job next year. Miguel Andujar’s Triple-A and September performances warrant a shot next Spring. Connor Joe was one of the most-used players in 2023, with the ability to play all over the field. Tucupita Marcano is returning from a major injury, but is young with dynamic potential. Jason Delay is a solid backup behind the plate. The question of what to do with Andrew McCutchen would be made easier if he accepted a reduced bench/starting role, where he was worked into the starting mix one or two games per week and batting off the bench the rest of the time, rather than being an everyday starter as the DH.
The five pitchers could make up a good bullpen mix, while also factoring into the starting mix, if the Pirates continue getting creative. Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, and Roansy Contreras would be the candidates who have a chance to emerge beyond a swingman role.
Nick Gonzales will likely be on the outside of the starting mix with Cruz returning to the middle infield mix, but could be a factor off the bench as a starter a few times a week.
Projected Roster in 2024
The above tiers make up more than 26 players. That said, the Pirates will use more than 50 players throughout the 2024 season.
Here’s a look at what the current Opening Day roster could look like with the internal options.
Pitchers: Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, Quinn Priester, JT Brubaker, Luis Ortiz, David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski, Bailey Falter, Andre Jackson, Jose Hernandez
Catchers: Endy Rodriguez, Jason Delay, Henry Davis
Infielders: Jared Triolo, Liover Peguero, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ji Hwan Bae
Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Connor Joe, Joshua Palacios, Andrew McCutchen
Pirates 2023-24 Off-Season Outlook
**The pitching staff could use at least one veteran starter to prevent a 3-5 combo of a rookie Priester, a returning Brubaker, and Ortiz, who is probably better suited in a swingman role. Adding one starter could allow for Priester and Ortiz to combine for a swingman spot in the rotation. Brubaker’s spot could also be used in the same way. This scenario would require innings from Keller, Oviedo, and the veteran starter addition. Adding a second starter could allow them to go with a six man rotation.
**The Pirates will get Henry Davis some work behind the plate next year. The question is, where else will he play? I could see Endy Rodriguez getting half the starts, with Davis and Delay splitting the remaining workload. If there are six games a week, and Rodriguez starts four, that leaves one start each for Davis and Delay. I’d expect a 3-2-1 split between Rodriguez/Davis/Delay if Davis can progress his receiving abilities well enough.
**The left side of the infield looks set, with Ke’Bryan Hayes providing Gold Glove defense and now power at third base. Oneil Cruz is expected to return to shortstop, though the Pirates have Liover Peguero as an option. I’d expect Peguero to play second base, with Jared Triolo factoring into the first base mix. Using Triolo as a super utility player, and getting Henry Davis/Endy Rodriguez time at first base when they’re not catching, might be the best option.
**The outfield has an obvious hole. Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski both have the bat to be starters at the corners. They can both play center field, though they both have shown the ability to give a full win of runs away by Defensive Runs Saved metrics. The Pirates don’t have a third starter, though they’ve got reliable bats off the bench, and a wild card in Palacios. The best move would be to add a true center fielder. One who can add plus defense in the spacious PNC Park outfield, while allowing Reynolds and Suwinski more chance to save their focus for their bats.
**The best upcoming free agent defensive center fielders: Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier. Going from Reynolds/Suwinski to either of these guys would be an upgrade of 1-2 wins on defense over a season. The Pirates could afford either player, and have a starting spot available.
**Depth prospects for 2024: RHP Max Kranick, OF Canaan Smith-Njigba, RHP Colin Selby, SS Alika Williams, RHP Cody Bolton, RHP Hunter Stratton
**Second half arrivals to watch for: RHP Mike Burrows, RHP Braxton Ashcraft, LHP Jackson Wolf, SS Tsung-Che Cheng
**Wild card prospects to arrive in late 2024, after starting the season in Altoona: RHP Bubba Chandler, LHP Anthony Solometo
