The Pittsburgh Pirates have traded first baseman Carlos Santana to the Milwaukee Brewers for 18-year-old shortstop prospect Jhonny Severino. The deal is the first move the Pirates have made this deadline season to break up their veteran group, right as the young players are arriving in the majors.
Exit: Veteran Leadership
The signing of Santana represented a change in approach for the Pirates under Ben Cherington. The Pirates hadn’t shown a lot of urgency to add at the MLB level in the 2020-2022 seasons, as they focused on building up their minor league system. Throughout this season, we’ve seen the Pirates bring up a lot of young prospects who project to be part of their future.
They did not have a first base prospect who looked close to ready when they signed Santana. They also had some of the worst production at first base last year.
Santana was worth 1 WAR with the Pirates, showing great defense and adding some key power, including three homers in the series win against San Diego this week. The Pirates, as a team in 2022, had a negative-3 WAR. Santana wasn’t the biggest addition a team could make. However, he was a Major League regular who stabilized a position that was very weak.
Who is Jhonny Severino?
Milwaukee signed Jhonny Severino to a $1.23 million deal during the 2022 signing class. The Pirates spent their entire bonus pool that year, so they wouldn’t have been able to sign Severino.
I like to look at this type of trade through a sort of time machine. Whatever made Severino so valuable in January 2022 has probably not changed in the last 18 months. It’s mostly potential, and the Pirates had a chance to get that same potential a year and a half later. During that time, he’s played in the DSL (.268/.333/.391, 198 PA) and this year in the Arizona Complex League (.250/.288/.583, 52 PA). He was originally advertised as having the potential for plus power, and he’s already shown a tendency to hit for power, with four homers this year.
Had the Pirates signed Severino in January 2022 for a seven figure bonus, Pirates fans would be tracking him right now in the FCL each night, looking for signs of promise from the power bat. They couldn’t add Severino within the MLB rules, due to the bonus pool limits. Instead, they signed Carlos Santana to stabilize their first base position, then dealt him for the chance to develop Severino the rest of the way.
Develop is the key word here. We can project a lot of things from Severino, but he’s an 18-year-old with the chance for plus power and a plus arm in rookie ball. At this point, anything he could become is entirely up to the development group.
What Happens At First Base?
The Pirates still have Ji-Man Choi as their first baseman. They also have Connor Joe who can play the position. Choi is a free agent at the end of the season, and could be dealt by the end of August 1st. Joe has years of control remaining, and can play other positions, so I honestly don’t know what to expect, and wouldn’t lock him into the first base mix.
In terms of minor league prospects, the final two months of the season should offer the best opportunities for Aaron Shackelford, Mason Martin, and Malcom Nunez. Shackelford hits for power, but has been inconsistent in Triple-A. Martin hits for power, but has been doing that at Double-A. Nunez might be the best candidate. He’s currently rehabbing in Bradenton, after seeing a hot streak in May end with an injury. If he returns to Indianapolis and keeps hitting, he’d be the obvious prospect to try. The Pirates added Nunez last year at the deadline for Jose Quintana.
Santana was an upgrade prior to the season because none of those three prospects looked close to ready. The current situation isn’t much better for those three. The MLB alternatives could provide a better option, if the Pirates get creative down the stretch.
For starters, they have Endy Rodriguez getting time behind the plate, and want to get time at catcher for Henry Davis. Rodriguez has worked at first base in the minors, and the hope is to rotate the two catchers. Having either one stashed at first base on their off-day would cover two positions.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is currently rehabbing in the minors. When he returns, Jared Triolo has shown enough to stick in the majors, though not enough to be an overall upgrade over Hayes at third. Having Triolo move to first base could allow him time to develop his bat at the MLB level.
The wild card is Oneil Cruz, who is returning from a serious ankle injury. The Pirates have two young shortstop options in Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero. Both of them are just as capable as Cruz at the position, and without the recent injury. The safest move for the tall slugger upon his return might be positioning him at first base and teaching him a new long-term position.
Cruz, Triolo, Endy/Davis, or the prospects in the minors led by Nunez. The final two months of the season could see the Pirates get creative in solving that first base hole — assuming they also deal Choi. The hope would be that the final two months produces a solution that makes it so they aren’t looking for a rental once again this offseason.
