Kiley McDaniel from ESPN has posted his second mock draft. He has switched his top pick since the last one, which is something we just saw from Jonathan Mayo at MLB Pipeline.
McDaniel is going with LSU pitcher Paul Skenes for the Pirates with the first overall pick on July 9th, which is now less than two weeks from today.
What’s really interesting here is the College World Series situation. LSU and Florida are playing for the title tonight. Skenes is on three days rest, coming off of 120 pitches. There are concerns from people over his possible usage tonight.
He’s going to want to pitch as much as possible I’m sure. He’s not going to get another chance at a College World Series title. This could very well end up being the biggest game as his life, as nothing is guaranteed with pitchers in pro ball.
So that’s something to watch for tonight, besides the fact that the Pirates are off and it’s the College World Series.
There’s also two pretty good outfielders playing tonight. Dylan Crews from LSU and Wyatt Langford from Florida. They are going #2/#3 respectively in the mock draft.
The #4/#5 spots are the last two members of this year’s big five, with Max Clark followed by Walker Jenkins.
It’s a great year to be picking fifth because a player with #1 overall talent is falling in your lap and you just get to take him at a discounted rate ($2.6M difference between first and fifth slot spots).
I don’t want to give away too much of what McDaniel said for the reasoning behind Skenes going to the Pirates because it is a pay article and a summary doesn’t do it justice, but he said it could come down to bonus demands.
As we have mentioned numerous times here based on reports from the various industry sources, there isn’t a big difference between the top player in this class and the fifth best. The drop-off is significant after the fifth pick.
If one of these guys saves you money to add extra seven-figure bonus players in later rounds, then you’re really looking at it like it’s not Crews vs Skenes (for example), it’s Crews vs Skenes and more bonus pool money to spend. You’re not just picking one talented player over another, you’re trying to get as much talent in addition to your top pick.
The basic summary (it’s worth reading the entire thing if you can) is that Crews might price himself out of the first pick, with the only way the Pirates take him is if they truly believe he’s an easy choice here.
So that led to McDaniel leaning towards Skenes for this pick, with Max Clark being an option as well. Some scouts like Skenes or Langford at least as much as Crews. Are those scouts with the Pirates?
We will find out the answer to everything in 13 days.
