Colin Holderman has one blown lead all season.
That bad inning on Tuesday night is the only thing keeping the Pirates from ten straight wins and three straight sweeps.
Holderman has definitely earned a bad outing, for all of the good he’s done this season to get the Pirates off to a 18-8 start. Prior to his first blown lead, he was 8-for-8 in holds, and only allowed runs in one of those appearances.
Let’s talk about that Pirates start.
Today’s win over the Dodgers was a microcosm of what we’ve seen from the Pirates all season. I’ll let Connor Joe’s post-game comments describe that.
“We’re resilient,” Joe said to Robby Incmikoski.
Resiliency is what keeps you watching this team, even if they’re down.
Mitch Keller gave up two runs in the first inning — the damage coming on a two out single. He followed with five shutout innings, allowing three hits, no walks, and he struck out eight more Dodgers hitters.
The Pirates offense struck right back, something we’ve seen so many times this year.
In the first inning, the Pirates scored three runs off small ball. They had four singles in the entire inning, but took five extra bases to lead to the runs. Tucupita Marcano led off with two extra bases after a throwing error by Austin Barnes. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen moved into scoring position in a double steal, allowing them both to score the tying and go-ahead runs behind Marcano.
Anthony Murphy wrote recently about the impact that speed has played on the early success from this team. After today’s game, they lead the majors with 37 stolen bases.
In the sixth inning, the Pirates added some insurance runs, while showing that they can play big ball, too. Joe hit his third home run of the year with McCutchen on first. Rodolfo Castro followed immediately with his third homer of the year. The Pirates were up 6-2, heading to their bullpen.
The Pirates offense can strike in any way, at any time.
One of the worst offenses in the game last year, the Pirates now rank 6th in wOBA (.338) and 9th in wRC+ (110). Their success has come from all over — guys who spent most of the 2022 season losing in Pittsburgh, free agent and trade additions who have worked out, and new arrivals to the majors in 2023.
The additions of McCutchen and Carlos Santana have been huge, as was the trade for Joe. McCutchen has an .877 OPS, Santana has a .753 OPS, and Joe is at .972.
There have been five starters used this year, and only Rich Hill has an ERA above 4.00. That’s mostly due to bad outings in his first two starts of the year. Vince Velasquez had a similar story, with better starts after his first outing. The younger starters — Keller, Johan Oviedo, and Roansy Contreras — are all showing promise.
The bullpen ranks first in the majors in Win Probability Added, and third in WAR. Things are going so well there that the Pirates are beating the Dodgers with Jose Hernandez, a left-hander they took from the Dodgers’ Double-A team in the Rule 5 draft. The bullpen success gets a big assist from Holderman in the eighth, setting up David Bednar in the ninth.
You could find ways to doubt any of the particular success the Pirates have seen across the board, and chalk it up to a really good month. If you actually watch this team, the attitude matches the performance. This is a team that is looking, acting, and performing like a winner.
This team will not fade.
This will be a fun season.
Photo of the Bucco Jacket above by David Hague.
PIRATES SCOPE
**The Pirates have extended their best infielder. They’ve extended their best outfielder. It’s time for them to extend their best starting pitcher, Mitch Keller. After today, Keller has a 3.53 ERA in 35.2 innings. That comes with a 10.1 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9, which are the best marks of his career. He’s been on a steady progression with his game since last season, and we’re now seeing him emerge as an impactful starter in his age-27 season. Keller will be a free agent after the 2025 season, and is arbitration eligible for two more years after this. With a window starting to form into 2030, it would be smart for the Pirates to keep Keller for more of those projected contending years.
**How about the play from Rodolfo Castro? Not only his performance at the plate, but his performance on the field at shortstop. Castro has an .854 OPS at the plate this season, and he’s flashed a few solid defensive plays. His metrics on defense have been poor in a small sample. He’s always graded better as a second baseman who can play shortstop in a pinch. I think this extended stretch with Cruz out will give a really good indication of his skills.
**If you bet the Vegas Over 68.5 wins, the Pirates need to win at a .375 rate or better the rest of the way in order for you to win your bet. They were better than that mark in each of the last two seasons. An early congratulations on your winnings. If you’re not a bettor, and just looking for the path to a winning season, the Pirates need to play .471 ball to get to 82 wins. If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, they get to 86 wins, which would have been one shy of the playoffs last year. Where do you think they end up, after seeing this hot start?
TODAY ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
Anthony Murphy wrote about Miguel Andujar’s recent hitting in Indianapolis. Andujar looks like the best immediate depth option the Pirates have in the minors.
Pirates Prospects Daily: Miguel Andujar Continues Late Month Tear
