Our weekly spotlight of 2023 draft prospects began with a closer look at LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, who many people have as the top prospect in this draft class. We then moved on to Chase Dollander, a right-handed pitcher from the University of Tennessee. Our third profile article looked at high school outfielder Walker Jenkins. Here’s our draft preview article in case you missed it.
Our fourth article looks at another player from LSU. Paul Skenes has been beyond dominating this year. His fifth start last week left him with a 5-0, 0.59 record, with a .115 BAA in 30.1 innings, to go along with a 4:59 BB/SO ratio. An updated draft prospect ranking from Baseball America this week lists him as the third best prospect in this class. We will talk about this weekend’s performance for Skenes in our weekly recap article for the top draft prospects.
Skenes has the workhorse frame that scouts dream on when they look for a pitcher. He stands 6’6″, 235 pounds. He doesn’t turn 21 years old until late May. He went undrafted out of high school in 2020, then attended Air Force for two seasons. He’s called a two-way player, but his domination on the mound has the pitching well ahead of the hitting.
He had a 2.70 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 26.2 innings as a freshman. He hit .410/.486/.697 that year in 48 games. He hit very well last year over 52 games, though it came with a 137-point drop in his OPS, mostly due to dropping to a .314 average. The pitching was just as strong with more work. He had a 2.73 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 85.2 innings. He transferred to LSU for the 2023 season. He hasn’t hit at all this year.
MLB Pipeline rates him as having a 70 grade fastball, a 60 grade slider and a 50 grade for his changeup, along with a 50 grade for his control. His fastball has been in the 95-99 range. His mid/high-80s slider shows sharp break, though they note it can be inconsistent at times. His changeup sits 88-91 with fade, and they believe it can be a solid offering in time.
They call him athletic on the mound, with the ability to throw strikes and repeat his delivery well. According to Pipeline, his biggest knock is that batters can pick up the ball well out of his hand.
Baseball America has a report very similar to Pipeline, describing the slider and changeup the same, as well as his velocity on his fastball and the athletic delivery. They note that scouts have told them that he has the chance for three above average pitches with above average control. That control seems to be there already, with four walks in 30.1 innings going into this weekend.
I usually include scouting reports from Fangraphs here too, but they talk more about his hitting and have slower velocities for his pitches, so it’s best to not include it before they update it.
Skenes made a lot of progress during the fall after joining LSU, so he improved his draft stock a lot. He was rated highly coming into the year, but there were still some questions and inconsistency with pitches. He has a special combo of pitches/frame/control, that could really be taken to elite levels now that he’s only pitching.
There seems to be a question about how he will hold up over a full season of work, so that is something to watch as this year progresses. That big frame should help him out. He’s going to go high in this draft, but just how high might depend on the stuff he’s showing at the end of the year.
Here’s the only video you need to see. This is amazing from Kyler Peterson, who put together his entire start from earlier this year, complete with info on his pitches and some warmup pitches as well. There’s a great view on everything here
