Last week on Roundtable, we each listed a position battle on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster that we will be watching during Spring Training. This week, we’re looking at the pitching staff.
By my count, there are at least nine starting pitchers who should get time in the majors this year. Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, and JT Brubaker are returning to the rotation. The Pirates added Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez as offseason free agents.
The end of the 2023 season saw the Pirates debuts of Johan Oviedo and Luis Ortiz, who should both factor into the early-season depth. Two of the top pitching prospects in the system, Quinn Priester and Mike Burrows, are also expected to arrive in the majors in 2023.
With so many options, I asked everyone this week to project the top five starters in innings pitched by the end of the season.
Who do you think will pitch the most innings for the Pirates in 2023?
JOHN DREKER
1. Mitch Keller
2. Roansy Contreras
3. JT Brubaker
4. Vince Velasquez
5. Rich Hill
I think the Pirates know their starting rotation already, barring injury of course. So I see those guys making up the top five pitchers for innings this year. I believe Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras and JT Brubaker will be in the rotation all season, throwing 150+ innings each, while Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez are much less likely to stay all year on one-year contracts.
I have Hill fifth because I think he is more likely to be traded, but he also doesn’t go deep into games. I could see Velasquez sticking around as a reliever to finish out the year, or even moving to a long relief role mid-season. It will probably be easier to trade Hill with his track record. They will likely be around 100 innings each.
Johan Oviedo will be the biggest challenge to cracking the top five. I think he starts the year as rotation depth in Indianapolis, taking the role early on as the first man up. That time in the minors will keep him just below Hill to finish the year, but he will still see a decent amount of time throughout the year. I’d put him in the same tier as Velasquez/Hill.
Oviedo would be followed by Luis Ortiz, Mike Burrows and Quinn Priester in that order to begin the season, but that order could change as the season goes along and the three sort themselves out. Either way, I think all nine players mentioned here will get 5+ starts in 2023.
WILBUR MILLER
1. Mitch Keller
2. J.T. Brubaker
3. Roansy Contreras
4. Rich Hill
5. Johan Oviedo
I’m not going to predict injuries, which obviously is the big wild card in forecasting starter innings. So Keller, Brubaker and Contreras are easy choices. Keller and Contreras figure to be the team’s two best starters, assuming nothing dramatic happens. Brubaker seems under-appreciated by Pirate fans. He’s made halting progress the last couple years and has had some good stretches, so it’s worth them sticking with him to see whether he can step up the way Keller did in 2022.
It gets tougher after that. Hill threw 126 innings in 2022, but he’ll be 43 in a couple weeks. On the other hand, I don’t think it’s a given that he’ll depart at the deadline like Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana. Even if he’s pitching well, two months of a 43-year-old pitcher isn’t going to bring much in a trade. Well, not much apart from salary relief for Bob Nutting, so he could get traded. Everything about Hill points to a Bryse Wilson type of performance, except that instead of going five innings and allowing three runs over and over, he’s more like to go five and allow two, which should get him well over 100 innings.
The last one is tougher. Vince Velasquez has inexplicably drawn numerous comparisons to Anderson and Quintana. The reality is, those guys were very good pitchers when healthy. Unlike them, Velasquez isn’t a reclamation project, because he’s never been a good pitcher. Since his one solid season, way back in 2016, he’s had a 5.26 ERA as a starter. The big thing he’s got going for him is a $3.15M guaranteed contract, which will buy him a lot of time. Still, at some point the Pirates have to start giving chances to guys who have a chance of being part of the team’s future, like Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, and Quinn Priester.
I’m guessing at some point Velasquez will have to give way and that Oviedo will be first up. That may even come about with a six-man rotation, or with Oviedo getting spot starts for various reasons. Of the various possibilities, he’s the most experienced, although there’s the risk that he won’t throw enough strikes. So, it’s a close call.
ANTHONY MURPHY
1. Mitch Keller
2. Roansy Contreras
3. Rich Hill
4. JT Brubaker
5. Johan Oviedo
Unless something crazy happens, or injuries really hit, this may end up being a boring season when it comes to predicting the rotation, and the innings they pitch. I don’t think Brubaker gets the credit he deserves as a backend starter, and while he may eventually get bumped out for one of the prospects, some of his pitch metrics (xFIP and fWAR) were right up there with Mitch Keller, who doesn’t have a second thought about him being in the rotation.
Hill probably lasts until the deadline, making him close to a lock, even if he doesn’t finish the season with the team. Oviedo may end up being some sort of swingman, but should get enough starts, especially if Vince Velasquez falters, to end up here as well.
Of course, they will make room for the prospects in Indianapolis when ready, but if the major league pitchers are performing well enough, the Pirates can hold off doing so as long as possible, limiting their overall innings in 2023.
If there is a prospect that squeezes into the list, it will probably be Luis Ortiz, who is closer to being major league ready than Mike Burrows or Quinn Priester.
JEFF REED
1. Mitch Keller
2. JT Brubaker
3. Roansy Contreras
4. Luis Ortiz
5. Mike Burrows
This is a difficult question for a multitude of reasons. Who is going to stay healthy? Who is going to be able to maintain some semblance of consistency? If we go back to 2021, who would have had Wil Crowe picked to lead the team in starts and finish second in innings pitched?
Setting aside the Covid shortened season, Rich Hill has eclipsed 100 innings pitched in five of the last six full seasons. So, on the surface, Hill would seem like a solid choice to finish in the Pirates top five of innings pitched. Will he remain healthy and effective? Would the front office trade him at the deadline, which could be a case of opening a rotation spot for another pitcher? My gut is telling me one way or another he doesn’t finish in the top five.
Mitch Keller has had quite the rocky career before appearing to finally see hit breakthrough during the 2022 season. Covid season aside (again), you have to go back to 2015 for a season that Keller DIDN’T break at least 100 IP, and he was in Rookie ball then. I’m buying the new Keller to finish in the top five, and even likely to finish with the most innings pitched.
I’ll keep it short and sweet on JT Brubaker by saying I think he’s been better than most give him credit for. I believe he’s a very stable backend starter that will give them innings and keep them in games. Brubaker has also had some bouts with injuries, but I think he’ll still finish north of 100 IP.
Roansy Contreras fell just shy of 100 MLB innings pitched in 2022. With his service time manipulation season out of the way, and what can probably be considered a lock for the rotation, I think he’s an easy pick for top five. Since the Pirates are still not truly in a contention window, it’s a perfect season to ride his ups-and-downs. If he’s good, that’s great. If he struggles, I don’t think they’ll do anything drastic unless he’s REALLY bad.
Here is where things get tricky. To begin, it’s possible Oscar Marin works some magic, but I don’t believe Vince Velasquez is long for the rotation. Reports are the Pirates believe in Johan Oviedo as a starter, and I imagine they’ll give him all the chances in the world. He should be one of the first call-ups for starter depth. From what I saw last season, I feel his fastball is going to hold him back as a starter. He had a couple strong starts against teams like the Cincinnati Reds, but he also struggled against better hitting clubs. The slider is plus, but he found himself in deep counts early with a fastball that was too hittable and getting fouled off a lot.
Luis Ortiz on the other-hand has two really strong offerings in his fastball and slider. He had some instant success in his short 2022 stint, and I think will be the depth starter in 2023 that has the best chance to see an early 2023 call-up – if he doesn’t manage to beat out Velasquez to begin with – and stick in the majors. He’s also built like a horse.
Then, Mike Burrows is on the 40-man roster, and I think has some of the better stuff of the upper level starting options. Even if it isn’t until after the Super Two cut-off date, I think he still has a strong chance to finish top five in innings pitched for the big club. There were some recent clips from workouts that appeared to show Burrows with a retooled windup. It looked cleaner and less violent, which should help health and longevity.
Now I’ll sit back and expect to be incorrect.
TIM WILLIAMS
1. Mitch Keller
2. Roansy Contreras
3. JT Brubaker
4. Luis Ortiz
5. Rich Hill
There are two parts to the rotation this year. The first part is the returning trio of Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, and JT Brubaker. Keller has taken a step forward in the last year, and is who I project to end up leading the rotation in innings and results. Contreras will get plenty of innings in his first full season in the big leagues. Brubaker has been reliable the last two years for innings and league-average results.
From there, the Pirates added Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez this offseason. My prediction is that Velasquez ends up in the bullpen. Hill might not be on the team beyond the trade deadline, although I believe the Pirates would opt to keep him around if they’re performing well, rather than trading him for a depth prospect to get lost in their already deep farm system.
The three prospects who could challenge for playing time from Velasquez are Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, and Mike Burrows. I’d also include Johan Oviedo in this group, though he’s not prospect eligible. Ortiz and Oviedo are most likely to be ready at the start of the year. I have Ortiz ahead of Oviedo. I think Ortiz will benefit from early-season injuries and performance issues to be one of the top five starters in innings this year.
CONSENSUS
1. Mitch Keller
2. Roansy Contreras
3. JT Brubaker
4. Rich Hill
5. Luis Ortiz
6. Johan Oviedo
7. Vince Velasquez
8. Mike Burrows
9. Quinn Priester
