When the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Henry Davis with the first overall pick in 2021, they got the top college bat available, and someone who could potentially rise quickly through the system.
Since being drafted, Davis has dealt with multiple injuries that has limited him to just 67 games in a little more than a year in the minors.
After spending six games in Greensboro before an injury cut the rest of his season short, Davis started there again in 2022. In just 22 games and 100 plate appearances, the catcher slashed .341/.450/.585, making quick work of High-A pitching.
While his strikeout rate was just 18%, he did have a borderline swing and miss problem. During his time in Greensboro, he had a 12.6% swinging strike rate, nothing too serious, but could be seen as a concern if it jumped up any more, especially moving up to a new level.
You can see some of the swings and misses he had, with the video above from a series against the Rome Braves early in the season. There was a lot of stuff on the outer half of the strike zone he missed, and sometimes the way he loads his hand for his swing looks like it sets him up to be late on those pitches as well.
One of the best things you can hope to see from one of your prospects is them making adjustments, especially as the season progresses.
Most of Davis’ numbers you can make a case to be a result of a small sample size, but even with the jump to Altoona, he actually decreased his swinging strike rate down to 10.5% in his 136 Double-A plate appearances.
The overall numbers weren’t great, slashing a total of .207/.324/.379, as Davis also saw his line drive rate get cut in half with the promotion, going from 28% down to 14%. Of course, he dealt with multiple injuries, the kind that he had to likely fight through the rest of the season, even when he came back.
Looking at him hitting, you can see the upside, and some of the adjustments he made. In the video below you can see him taking some of those pitches he swung and missed at in Greensboro the other way, with power as well at times.
One thing about Davis, and this goes back to the added load in his swing, is that he never gets cheated out of a baseball when he makes contact. Exit velocity numbers weren’t openly available in Greensboro or Altoona, but we did get a small portion of data from the five games he played in Bradenton.
Across 10 batted ball events, three had crossed triple digits, and half were ‘hard hit’ at at least 95 MPH.
Davis will always be a highly debated topic in the baseball circle. Certain expectations come from being the first overall pick, but looking back at the 2021 draft, there wasn’t really a true number one option available.
While maybe most of the top prospect attention went to the high school shortstops (Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar), Davis was absolutely in the mix as an option.
On a podcast for Baseball America, there was a mention of a Mike Napoli type of comp when it comes to potential contribution. While maybe that’s not the ideal comparison for a first overall pick, looking at the numbers he put up over his career (.246/.346/.475 with an overall 119 wRC+), that also included eight season’s of 20 or more home runs, it doesn’t actually seem so bad especially with the crapshoot the draft can be.
Davis has some work to do, and needs to stay on the field to get it done but he’s shown the approach at the plate that would lead you to believe his rough looking base numbers were more of a result from his wrist injury, as opposed to something to be worried about.
