Do you think the Pirates will make any serious additions this offseason?
I’m not talking about cheaper, stopgap rentals. I’m not talking about one-year reclamation projects in the rotation.
I’m talking about someone who can push them closer to being a contender. Someone who, when they sign, shows that the Pirates plan to contend in the near future.
At this point in their rebuild, I think it’s time for the Pirates to make such a move.
The Minor League Talent is Accumulating
Yesterday, Anthony Murphy recapped the progress of the 2019, 2020, and 2021 Pirates drafts. I’ve argued on this site for years that the Pirates haven’t had an issue finding talent. The problem they’ve always had was developing that talent to their upsides in Pittsburgh. You can see in Anthony’s breakdowns that they are still adding talent through the draft.
The 2019 group is led by Quinn Priester, who I would expect to join the MLB rotation at some point next year. Third round pick Jared Triolo was just added to the 40-man roster. You could have made arguments to add Blake Sabol or Matt Gorski from the same draft class, and I think all three will be in the majors next year with Priester. This draft will also likely produce MLB players in JC Flowers and Matt Fraizer. It had two of the biggest surprise breakouts in 2022 from Aaron Shackelford and Andres Alvarez. The Pirates still have a lot of players from the pre-pandemic draft.
The 2020 group was smaller, due to a shortened draft. It includes Nick Gonzales, who was trending in the right direction at the end of the year. Jack Hartman, taken in the fourth round, was just traded for Ji-Man Choi. The Pirates are getting upside from Jared Jones in this draft, and will likely see Carmen Mlodzinski and Nick Garcia pitch in the majors.
The 2021 draft gave the system a big boost with all of the middle round prep players. In the more immediate future, Henry Davis and Tyler Samaniego could help the MLB team. The 2022 draft also helped to add to the lower levels, and I don’t think anyone wants to talk about the Pirates chances in 2026 right now.
The Pirates are still getting talent from their drafts. Even if you go back to 2018, they drafted Mike Burrows and Colin Selby, who were just added to the 40-man.
They’ve also been getting talent from the international ranks, and from the trades during their rebuild. Ji-Hwan Bae is the best player emerging from the former group, and Endy Rodriguez is looking like a great return to pair with David Bednar from the Joe Musgrove trade.
Of course, the question isn’t whether the Pirates can add talent. It’s whether they can maximize that talent.
They are set to get a huge boost from this farm system, and in some of the key areas where this team needs help. If they’ve fixed their development issues, then they already have enough talent in the upper levels of the system to fuel a contender in the next few years.
They will need help from the outside, since no team builds completely from within.
Mid-Tier Free Agent Magic
One of the areas where Pirates General Manager Ben Cherington has had success in the past is landing mid-tier free agents. His World Series in Boston in 2013 was boosted by some key additions that any team could make — even the Pirates. Of course, the Pirates started their run of contending at the same time, due to shrewd additions like Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, and A.J. Burnett.
I don’t think I need to stress the point that the Pirates will need some of this type of help to push them into being actual contenders. These players don’t necessarily need to be free agents, but the additions need to be better than what we’ve seen so far. Ji-Man Choi might help in 2023, but he’s more of the same quality of player being added. The Pirates need those mid-tier guys, as they really can’t afford anything more.
It makes sense that they haven’t added those types of players yet.
Tyler Anderson, who was their reclamation project in 2021, just signed a three year, $39 million deal. If the Pirates added that type of pitcher in 2021, they would be heading into the third year now, after burning $26 million on two losing seasons. It made sense that they added the reclamation version of Tyler Anderson in 2021.
As the farm system gets closer to producing talent to the majors, I think the Pirates have reached the point where a move like Anderson would make sense. They would probably still lose in 2023, but any multi-year addition this offseason would be about 2024-2025. It would be very disappointing if the Pirates didn’t expect to contend in 2024. It would be a bad sign for the faith in their development system.
Last time around, the Pirates added Burnett a year before they were contenders. His addition helped to push them closer on the field, but also helped to change the atmosphere in the losing Pittsburgh clubhouse. I don’t think there’s a way to appreciate how that impacted the shift toward winning.
The Pirates won’t just magically turn into contenders as all of their minor leaguers magically turn into MLB leaders. Those prospects will need some help on the field, and will need examples of leaders to follow in the early part of their MLB careers.
At the very least, it’s time to add a veteran pitcher who you can build a staff around. I still think Jose Quintana would be good to bring back, even if he was much more expensive this time around.
Back to the Bargain Bin
The Pirates have been hitting the bargain bin sources of talent very heavily. If a player goes on waivers, there’s a good chance the Pirates will take a chance on him. Their rotation additions of Anderson and Quintana have cost a combined $4.5 million guaranteed. They aren’t paying much more than $2-3 million a player for guys like Dan Vogelbach, and Roberto Perez at $5 million feels like opening up the wallet.
When the Pirates contend, they will contend with all of these types of moves. They won’t contend with the massive frequency of bargain bin searching that they’re doing right now. But they will still be actively looking for bargains — as they should and as every MLB team does.
The frustrating thing about the last few years is that this is all they were doing. The farm system wasn’t ready to produce a wave of talent like we’re about to see in the next year. It didn’t make sense for them to add mid-tier free agents when they were trading away their own mid-tier guys.
I’m not saying that these three areas (farm system, mid-tier free agents, bargain bin) are the three pieces to building a contender. What I am saying is that you’re not going to build a contender by going heavy on any one area and ignoring the others. That’s especially true with the bargain bin additions. I think I’m preaching to the choir here though.
With the farm system about to push a lot of talent to Pittsburgh in the next year, it’s time for the Pirates to graduate beyond the bargain bins. The most encouraging thing for me this offseason will be seeing if they add a mid-tier guy.
If additions like Ji-Man Choi are the best we can expect, it would be very disappointing. I don’t think anyone expects the Pirates to contend in 2023, but if they’re not to the point of seriously adding to this team this offseason, then it raises a serious question as to when they actually do expect to contend.
