This past week was the first week of the Pirates Prospects Weekly concept. I explained that last week in First Pitch, but it’s easier to see it in action.
Every day around noon, we release a new article as part of the P2Weekly schedule. First Pitch leads off the week every Monday, giving you a recap of the previous week, and a look ahead to the current week.
Since we just finished the first week of P2Weekly, this will be the first version of what you can expect from First Pitch each week. I normally will have more to say in the lead area. This week, I’ve buried that at the bottom of this article. If you really want to skip past everything, jump to the Pirates Business section for my thoughts on Lopez.
I will add the shameless plug that everything on this site is now free*, with the disclaimer that this site is user-funded. This is all possible over the years due to contributions from our readers. If you enjoy the content we provide each day or week, then please consider contributing to our efforts.
LAST WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
Our article drops returned last week with the Pirates Prospects 2022 awards. Endy Rodriguez was our Minor League Player of the Year. Quinn Priester was named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Matt Gorski was named the Breakout Prospect.
The Pirates announced their awards last week, naming Rodriguez and Priester their Player and Pitcher of the Year. Here was the recap of the Pirates awards:
Honus Wagner Player of the Year: Endy Rodriguez, C
Bob Friend Pitcher of the Year: Quinn Priester, RHP
Manny Sanguillen Teammates of the Year: Jacob Gonzalez, 1B; Luis Ortiz, RHP
Danny Murtaugh Coach of the Year: Jonathan Prieto, FCL Hitting Coach
Willie Stargell Slugger of the Year: Matt Gorski, OF
Kent Tekulve Reliever of the Year: Tyler Samaniego, LHP
Bill Mazeroski Defender of the Year: Jared Triolo, 3B
Omar Moreno Baserunner of the Year: Tsung-Che Cheng, SS
I really like that the Pirates are expanding the focus on their minor league system in this way. In the past, they had a Player and Pitcher of the Year. The new awards add a homage to the history of the Pirates organization, while also expanding the focus to recognize six additional players, as well as a coach.
**Anthony Murphy had a look at the system FIP leaders this year, highlighting pitchers whose performances didn’t match their ERA.
Pittsburgh Pirates System FIP Leaders: A Second Look At Pitching Performances
**Anthony Murphy looked at the rookie season from Roansy Contreras from an analytical point.
**Our Indianapolis writer, Ryan Palencer, talked with Beau Sulser right before he was claimed by the Orioles this year. We never got to run the feature about how he was doing in the bullpen. Sulser returned to the Pirates this offseason, and Ryan finally got a chance to write that story.
Check back every Tuesday for our latest Article Drop.
OPINIONS
Wilbur Miller projected out the possible rotations for the two Pirates A-ball affiliates next year. Those teams will feature a lot of young pitching talent, led by the prep guys from the 2021 draft. I’m really looking forward to seeing how that Greensboro rotation combats the home park.
WTM: Possible Rotations for Greensboro and Bradenton in 2023
ROUNDTABLE: SLEEPERS
One of my favorite new features on the site this year is Roundtable, which allows everyone on the site to weigh in each week on a different Pirates topic. Last week, we picked our sleepers for the 2023 season, based on what we saw in 2022. Carlos Jimenez was featured, with Ricky DeVito, Sean Sullivan, and Jauri Custodio also getting a mention. Check out what we like about those players in the article below.
Prospect Roundtable: Sleepers in the Pirates Minor League System
If you liked this week’s topic, we’ve got a similar theme coming up for a future Roundtable. I love the versions that give you multiple players to read about.
WEEKLY PIRATES DISCUSSION
Every Friday, Jeff Reed leads the weekly discussion, giving a few thoughts to kick things off. This week he looked at some free agent targets for the 2023 rotation.
Weekly Pirates Discussion: Free Agent Targets For the 2023 Rotation
My thought is that the Pirates would benefit from adding two starters this offseason. I’d really like to see them return to the bargain bin and try to repeat the success they found with Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana. Both of those pitchers signed for $2-2.5 million. The Pirates got each at a low point in value, and benefitted from their rise, landing prospects in return for each player.
Ideally, they surprise everyone and find a reason to keep the next reclamation pitcher for their own contending purposes.
PIRATES WINTER REPORT
John Dreker has updates on the Pirates in winter ball each day. Every week, he profiles a different player in winter ball, along with a recap of the recent week’s events.
This week’s Pirates Winter Report features a very interesting lower level guy. Jesus Castillo just won the batting title in the Florida Complex League, and is following that by playing in winter ball in Australia. Read more about him, and all of the other winter performances:
Pirates Winter Report: Jesus Castillo is Getting Great Experience at a Young Age
PIRATES BUSINESS
Tomorrow is the day that teams need to protect players for this year’s Rule 5 draft. Ethan Hullihen broke down which players need to be protected, and gave his predictions.
Pirates Business: Who Do The Pirates Need to Protect From the Rule 5 Draft?
The easy picks for me are Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows, and Blake Sabol. The latter would be easy to stash on an MLB roster all season. Sabol can catch, play outfield, and he’s got a swing geared toward contact — developing more power over the last year. I think all three of these players are in the majors by the middle of the year.
I think the Pirates will have interesting decisions to make with Malcom Nunez and Matt Gorski. I could see both getting protected. I think Gorski would be more at-risk, due to his defensive abilities in the outfield. Nunez can play third base, but that’s more a secondary position, which doesn’t add much value. It’s difficult to protect a first base/DH guy, and that’s what he is in the majors. If Nunez gets protected, it’s a sign the Pirates think his bat is close to MLB-ready.
Jared Triolo is another fringe guy, though his defensive abilities at third base could add value to a team that might want to use him as a super-utility guy. The potential with his bat, combined with the defense, almost makes him a poor man’s Ke’Bryan Hayes. A key thing to remember here is that Triolo and Gorski are both going to be 25 next year. I can’t make the argument that the Pirates should commit to either on Opening Day. I could see both players arriving at some point in 2023, and the hope would be that they develop into a starter. After the Rule 5 year, you’re getting them from age 26 forward.
In a way, Nunez might be more valuable to a rebuilding team. He’s going into his age 22 season. If you protect him for a year, you’ve got him in your system with no restrictions heading into his age 23 season. That gives two years to develop him until he’s the age that Triolo and Gorski are right now.
That’s the decision teams need to make. Do you draft a guy like Triolo or Gorski, knowing that the Rule 5 process will probably quash their chances of an upside over a 40-grade? Or, do you draft a guy like Nunez, banking on the idea that you can develop him long-term into a 50-grade guy by the time he’s the age of Triolo/Gorski?
And that brings me to the most interesting player for tomorrow’s decisions: Dariel Lopez.
Lopez just completed his age-20 season in High-A, hitting for a .286/.329/.476 line in 420 plate appearances. He hit 19 home runs, and limited his strikeouts to 25.5%. His walk rate was at an even 5%. He can play second, third, and short, and profiles well defensively. As far as upside, Endy Rodriguez might be the only player in this group who has more than Dariel Lopez.
If I’m a rebuilding team, I take Lopez, let him back up shortstop, second, and third, and bite the bullet on his bat. You could develop him for three years after that in the upper levels, at which point he would need to be in the majors for that magic age-25 season.
The Rule 5 draft is largely role players at this point. Gone are the days where you could find a future star. Lopez might be the easiest path to that outcome. That path isn’t so easy. You need to take a guy who isn’t ready for the majors, stash him away for a year, and hope that you can develop him into an MLB player in the following three years. From there, he needs to be a starter to make the experiment worthwhile.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Pirates protect Lopez. The downside is they would need Lopez to be in the majors by his age 24 season, at which point he would be out of options. The upside is they could maintain his development in Altoona in 2023, rather than seeing a year sacrificed to the Rule 5 process. That’s only a concern if there’s a team out there willing to sacrifice a roster spot for a year on the long-term potential of Lopez.
That’s really the decision being made with Nunez. It’s the decision being made with Gorski and Triolo, only with the expectation that they might have a better chance of providing immediate value.
Since Lopez has more upside than any of those players, I’d protect him to maintain his development. I don’t think the other three would be selected or lost long-term.
Who I’d Protect: Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows, Blake Sabol, Dariel Lopez
THIS WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
John Dreker will have the Arizona Fall League season recap in tomorrow’s article drop. We will have our Rule 5 coverage and analysis throughout the week.
FUQUAY VINYL PLAYLIST
As far as new music, I spent a lot of time this past week listening to the new Danger Mouse album, which I wrote about last week. After listening to some Gary Clark Jr., Johnny Cash, and John Mayer this weekend, this week’s playlist is very electric blues heavy.
WEEKLY PIRATEZ QUIZ
How many did you get? Leave your answer in the comments below.
SUPPORT
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