MLB Pipeline updated their top 100 prospects list on Wednesday morning and the Pittsburgh Pirates are well-represented in the top half of the list.
Pipeline has Henry Davis rated as the #19 prospect in baseball, followed one spot lower by Oneil Cruz. Nick Gonzales still rates high for them despite early season struggles and a trip to the 60-day IL, coming in at the #31 prospect. Quinn Priester also rates well despite missed time, ranking 36th overall. Not far behind is Liover Peguero, who ranks 45th overall.
Back in late May, those players ranked this way:
18 Nick Gonzales
20 Henry Davis
22 Oneil Cruz
51 Quinn Priester
62 Liover Peguero
It is a bit surprising that Mike Burrows didn’t make the jump to this list. I figured that he would sneak onto the back-end of the list after showing improvements with his pitches and strong results to match. I should also note that Roansy Contreras is still eligible for us, but not for Pipeline. They use the standard limits we do (no more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 30 games pitched), but they also use service time, so anyone who surpasses 45 non-September/October days can be removed from the list before reaching any of those marks. Contreras is at 47 innings in the majors.
7 out of the Top 10 best pitching prospects in baseball were HS draft picks.
There might be a bias here favoring HS picks where HS prospects remain on these lists for longer given their ages.
I think the bias is in the dogma that says they’re too risky to be taken where they belong.
Both are probably true
Agree on Burrows’ omission. And why no love for Ji-Hwan Bae? Is he a non prospect? And, I am still not sold on Nicky the K. I’m surprised he only dropped 13 spots.
Callis and Mayo have been following Gonzales since his freshman year in college… also watched him in person in the Cape Cod league and also watched him in the Arizona fall league. They probably can tell if he’s playing injured.
Amazing how his injuries keep making him whiff and whiff weeks before they happen, should probably look into that.
Do you know anyone about plantar faciitis? It doesn’t just happen one day.
Oh wow neat, is that also how his injury last year worked?
Idk how Brandon Williamson can still be at #77 , and Burrows can’t make the list. I’m assuming just cause “he’s a lefty”
The most egregious ranking related to the Bucs with this list is that Nicky G is on here. At all.
I’m telling you though, watch. BA will do an update, drop Nicky G to bottom of Top 100, or even off the list, and THEN Pipeline will follow suit.
Bingo.
I know. I know. I agree lol
One of my biggest Pirates’ draft regrets in recent memory is passing up Gunnar Henderson for Sammy Siani back in 2019. I was really pulling for him in the CB-A round, since Gunnar was higher ranked at a more premimum position. To see him then sign for only $150K more than Siani, and now he is in AAA ranked #5 in all of MiLB while Siani is struggling in High A….
Oh my god, literally came in to make this comment!
Pipeline has really been proactive with updates this year. I think Baseball America might do the same, as their tweet yesterday regarding Adley and “Who will be our new #1 ?” made it appear as such.
Guessing it may have to do with, at least what has appeared to me, as many more graduations than usual. Then we have Fangraphs who still haven’t even released their individual lists from pre-season, let alone taken any players off from graduating.
It’s expected with FG. Per a recent Longenhagen chat, they lost every prospect analyst except him within a 3-4 month span.
I do appreciate the trend of consistent updates as guys graduate and succeed/fail
I just get annoyed with Pipeline because I feel they’ve become predictable. Even with this new update, a lot of their additions are guys BA had in their last full update, so it feels Pipeline is trying to play catch up. Meanwhile, no one graduates prospects quicker off a list than Pipeline, since they actually acknowledge service time. Such as Gorman graduated last night 1 AB shy of 131, but Harris is still on there with the same 130 AB total. Then they seem to tend to overload on who the “in” farm system is, while making sure to throw in some big market prospects.
You shouldn’t have major changes in these lists if the initial list was put together carefully, but the subtle changes based on graduations, injuries and such are welcomed, as long as they spaced out like this one, which was basically six weeks since the last. Keith Law once said that he starts his entire list new each time and that’s insane to me. I’ll give it to him that he’s one person and not seeing a majority of these players (the guy covers way too many topics outside of baseball to put the time in to see everyone), but there has to be some certainty to a list if you’re putting it out for that many people to read on a major site.
I personally couldn’t put players in a top 100 list, but I can get a feel for where they belong on average and how they should rank in the Pirates system. Leaving Contreras out of the mix, I definitely wouldn’t have my top five ranked just like them, and I don’t think it’s that bunched up either. I would have a hard time choosing between Burrows and Priester, but there’s no way I’d come out here and say Burrows should be ranked #35 or #37 in all of baseball. I’d also rank Peguero higher in the system, but 45th overall in baseball feels right.
“You shouldn’t have major changes in these lists if the initial list was put together carefully, but the subtle changes based on graduations, injuries and such are welcomed, as long as they spaced out like this one, which was basically six weeks since the last.”
Is that really true? If so, why do draft lists vary so wildly from month-to-month?
Draft eligible players are still more in the development stages and seasons get started at different times so the late jumps in rankings are usually guys who get started later. Injuries also play a bigger part in the rankings. If a guy has Tommy John surgery in high school it really hurts them in rankings compared to someone already signed to a team. Once a guy is in a system you get to compare him to other guys at the same level and it’s easier to get reports. In high school, it matters if the area is good. A .700 HS hitter in New Hampshire can go undrafted, while a .320 hitter in HS can go in the first round if he’s playing in certain areas of Georgia, Texas, California, Florida. Once you’re in the pros, you’re not going to see that type of variance in play at the same level
Feels like there’s gotta be a better balance than starting fresh every time and matriculating everyone upward regardless of results in the current season. So much momentum at play in the latter.
Perhaps I’m taking this too literally but I dunno how he starts fresh.
Basically just throws out his previous iteration, grades all prospects fresh, and sorts them accordingly.
Pipeline and BA largely keep their initial list in place and adjust based on promotions and injuries. Only massive breakouts or struggles really factor into any sort of re-evaluation at all.
For those wondering why Mike Burrows hasn’t popped onto any lists yet, that’s probably your answer.
I feel a fresh list like that is really hard to reconcile with previous knowledge you have of a player when making that new list.
Which is where my comment on middle ground came from.
Both extremes clearly have their faults.
Based on recent comments from Eric at fangraphs we should see a lot of new content drop in the next 2 weeks leading up to the draft. Their team of 4 in the off-season dropped to just Eric due to 2 getting hired away (one by the pirates) and one stepping away so Eric has been swamped.
Ok. That all makes sense then. I hadn’t followed to that degree, so I was wondering why it’d been so lax.
Who is the guy hired by the Pirates?
Brendan Gawlowski
They hired Brendan to find the best way to turn infielders into outfielders.
Not sure the name of the individual because it has been discussed in general terms, they lost someone to the Twins (Goldstein), pirates (not sure), and personal time away (Tess Taruskin)
Not that lists and rankings are a huge deal, but some of burrows, solo, bubba, and the #4 pick could all join top prospect rankings in the next few months imo