With the trade deadline just a few days away, I thought I’d examine just how much of the Pittsburgh Pirates payroll would go down if any of the players that could be on the block are traded away.
Of course, this does not account for the additional salary of the players’ replacement ($206,031 for your run-of-the-mill minimum player), so this number will be more than how much payroll actually changes—I’ll break that down after the deadline. Also, these numbers assume a player is traded on the deadline—August 2nd at 6 pm.
Finally, these are strictly my predictions, so while the players you hear about constantly are listed, there are a few more that I think at least have a chance of being shipped out before the deadline passes.
Bryan Reynolds
Signed through: 2023 (Arbitration Eligible for 2024 and 2025)
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $2,373,626 in 2022 ($6,750,000 in 2023)
Analysis: Probably not getting traded, but as they say, where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
Yoshi Tsutsugo
Signed through: 2022
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $1,406,593
Analysis: Might as well chalk this up as Termination Pay, because Tsutsugo isn’t getting traded.
Chris Stratton
Signed through: 2022 (Arbitration Eligible for 2023)
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $949,451
Analysis: His market has probably been better in the past, but every team in the league needs functional bullpen help.
José Quintana
Signed through: 2022
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $703,297
Analysis: There’s a subset of fans that want to see Quintana stay, and while I see their point, I don’t think that’s how the club plays it.
Kevin Newman
Signed through: 2022 (Arbitration Eligible for 2023 and 2024)
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $685,714
Analysis: It’s hard to tell if another team would want what it is that Newman provides, but there’s at least somewhat of a chance he gets moved.
Ben Gamel
Signed through: 2022
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $632,967
Analysis: Maybe another team sees Gamel as a competent fourth outfielder, but this feels like a return that fans will ultimately be upset with, pumping up Gamel to more than he is. (I think this probably applies to Quintana as well, for what it’s worth)
Jake Marisnick
Signed through: 2022
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $457,143
Analysis: A not-so-great toe probably kills whatever slim chance Marisnick had of being traded.
Chase De Jong
Signed through: 2022 (Arbitration Eligible for 2024, 2025, and 2026)
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $307,692
Analysis: Has been solid—as relievers go—since being selected in the first month of the season and see the thought process behind Stratton.
Tyler Beede
Signed through: 2022 (Arbitration Eligible for 2023, 2024, and 2025)
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $256,703
Analysis: See Stratton, Chris and De Jong, Chris
Duane Underwood Jr.
Signed through: 2022 (Arbitration Eligible for 2023, 2024, and 2025)
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $254,945
Analysis: See Stratton et al
David Bednar
Signed through: 2022 (Arbitration Eligible for 2024, 2025, and 2026)
Guaranteed Salary Remaining: $251,429
Analysis: I know many fans think it crazy to even consider this idea, but to me, there’s never a bad time to sell high on relief pitching. Bednar was a tertiary piece in the Joe Musgrove deal, and it’s been proven time and again that impact relievers can be found almost anywhere.
Do his recent struggles with performance, fatigue, and possible injury make it a bad time to explore this though?
Pirates Payroll Updates
—When the Pittsburgh Pirates traded Daniel Vogelbach to the New York Mets last week, payroll went down $282,651, as Greg Allen took Vogelbach’s roster spot and the player coming back in return—Colin Holderman—was optioned, thus offsetting the payroll drop less than he would have had he made the active roster.
Holderman—who actually would have been eligible for minor league free agency after the season had he not been selected by the Mets—had been up for 63 days before the trade. If he comes back up to replace another reliever traded at the deadline—which is less than 15 days after his option, but he could do that if he’s replacing an assigned player—it would be another 81 days (65 on the calendar, but he wouldn’t have been on option for 20 days in this scenario, so the days get counted as major league service), putting him at .144 days of service for the season. That puts him at six years of contractual control remaining and in Super 2 territory, but that matters little for relief pitchers. He also would have three options remaining.
As for Vogelbach, the Pirates obviously get out from under a $200,000 buyout for 2023 at the least, as well as ceding at least two more years of contractual control—Vogelbach was on track to still be arbitration eligible in 2024.
—Payroll goes down another $132,143 after the Pirates managed to unload Michael Perez on the Mets. This is slightly higher than it otherwise could have been, as Perez’s minor league split ($325,000) was higher than your average player in the minors.
—Assuming Reynolds is only away for the maximum of three days on paternity leave, payroll goes up $9,658 for Madris’ (possible) brief stay. Also, his optional assignment was 20 days exactly, so he will use an option for 2022.
—Finally, if you pay attention to my tracking of the Pirates’ draft signing pool, you’ll see a $2,500 difference in space remaining from elsewhere. This is because it seems a part of Thomas Harrington’s reported $2,050,000 signing bonus was actually a Contingent Payment, which, by rule, can’t be more than $2,500 and doesn’t count against the pool. Basically, Harrington’s bonus counted $2,047,500 against the pool, and the Pirates have a whole $2,500 more to spend.
The only reason I’m as confident in this as I am is because the same situation seemed to play out with Anthony Solometo last year. His bonus against the slot was $2,500 less than first reported, and the Pirates spent every penny available to them in 2021. They assuredly didn’t go over by $2,500, so this helps explain that discrepancy in reporting.
—Payroll stands at $61,055,883 for the Labor Relations Department, while it’s $74,090,133 for CBT purposes. The Vogelbach transaction is the first of the season that was measured differently between the two, as his AAV ($1,000,000) was different from his actual 2022 salary ($800,000).
