Drafting college hitters hasn’t exactly been a strong point for the Pirates. That’s definitely a concern, given their recent drafting patterns, as they’ve gone increasingly heavy on college hitters in recent drafts. An increasing focus on college players in the draft is an industry-wide trend due to the current slotting system, as Baseball America has explained.
From 2008 to 2014, the Pirates drafted and signed 35 college hitters in the first 20 rounds of the draft. (It’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but college players drafted after round 20, and probably some before that, generally figure to be organizational players.) Not many of those 35 turned into productive players and none became standouts. Only four have made a meaningful impact, expressed here in bWAR:
Pedro Alvarez — 6.4
Jordy Mercer — 7.4
Brock Holt — 7.3
Adam Frazier — 6.5
Notably, three of the four are middle infielders or utility players who’ve succeeded as players who hit adequately, or a little better, while playing useful positions. And the fourth was a second overall pick who ultimately was a disappointment.
Starting in 2015, the Pirates went more heavily for college hitters in the early and middle rounds. They took three college hitters (Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer and Casey Hughston) that year early in the draft and three others (Mitchell Tolman, Christian Kelley and Logan Ratledge) in the first 20 rounds. Newman — another middle infielder — is working out well enough that he could easily become this front office’s best college position draftee so far. Kramer has taken a step backward this year; so far, he’s been a below average hitter in the International League. Hughston and Ratledge are gone and the other two are unlikely to make more then a token appearance in the majors.
In 2016, the Pirates took Will Craig in round one and Stephen Alemais in round three. Craig has a nice home run total this year, but the fact is he’s a firstbase-only player whose OPS is a hair below the league average. Alemais is a strong defender but hasn’t shown enough bat to hold a regular job in the majors. The Pirates signed five other college position players in the first 20 rounds; four are already gone and the fifth, Arden Pabst, is essentially identical to Kelley, i.e., a weaker version of Jacob Stallings.
The Pirates signed seven college hitters out of the first 20 rounds in 2017. One — Jared Oliva — appears to be a likely major leaguer, especially after setting a blistering hot pace over the past six weeks or so. Most of the others could still succeed, but haven’t unequivocally established themselves as more than marginal prospects. (One, Tristan Gray, was traded to the Rays and is currently struggling in AA.)
That brings us to 2018. The Pirates signed nine college position players out of the first 20, in fact the first 15, rounds, and the returns haven’t been promising. Here they are, with their draft rounds:
1. Travis Swaggerty, OF — Currently has a .699 OPS, 33 points above the league average while playing in one of the league’s best hitting parks. Not exactly what you want from a first round pick.
3. Connor Kaiser, SS — Batting 220/362/369 in low A; keep in mind here that a college draftee in his first full season should do well, or even dominate, in low A. Kaiser’s batting line is heavily buoyed by an extremely high walk rate, which for a college hitter at such a low level has little predictive value.
5. Grant Koch, C — An offense-oriented catcher (he’s throwing out only 19% of base stealers), Koch is batting only 221/276/316 in low A.
7. Brett Kinneman, OF — A corner outfielder, Kinneman posted just a .554 OPS at Greensboro, then got demoted to West Virginia, where he has just a .616 OPS.
10. Mike Gretler, IF — The Pirates tried Gretler as a utility player at Bradenton, but after he posted a .426 OPS they demoted him to Greensboro, where he has a .653 OPS.
12. Zac Susi, C — A defense-oriented catcher, Susi has a .622 OPS as the backup at Greensboro.
13. Zack Kone, IF — Struggling with a .559 OPS at Greensboro.
14. Daniel Amaral, OF — A speed-oriented outfielder, Amaral has put up a pretty good line at Bradenton (284/343/352), but the Pirates seem to regard him as more of an organizational player. He’s been hurt for a month.
15. Jonah Davis, OF — After an impressive debut at Bristol, Davis struggled so badly at Greensboro that the Pirates demoted him to West Virginia, where he went hitless in five games. A roster crunch forced him back to Greensboro, where he’s doing better, but he still has a 203/291/395 line with strikeouts in 38% of his plate appearances.
Most of those 2018 draftees struggled in their debuts, but the Pirates went even more heavily for college hitters this year. They signed a dozen in the first 20 rounds. The results so far haven’t been encouraging:
2. Matt Gorski, OF — 213/245/337 at West Virginia, with a 4:22 BB:K ratio. (Keep in mind throughout that the New York-Penn League is a very strong pitchers league, with a 234/318/342 league average.)
2. Jared Triolo, 3B — 208/287/396 at West Virginia.
3. Matt Fraizer, OF — 261/314/326 at West Virginia.
6. Will Matthiessen, OF — 242/356/371 at West Virginia.
7. Blake Sabol, OF — The best showing so far, batting 273/375/443 at West Virginia.
9. Ethan Paul, IF — 176/333/324 at West Virginia in nine games after signing late.
12. Kyle Wilkie, C — 200/297/251 at West Virginia.
13. Chase Murray, OF — 212/305/231 in 14 games at Bristol.
14. Aaron Shackelford, IF — 296/361/480 at Bristol, but with strikeouts in a third of his ABs. (Keep Jonah Davis in mind when looking at a college draftee’s stats in the Appalachian League.)
16. Eli Wilson, C — 213/341/320 at Bristol.
19. Cory Wood, IF — 238/312/333 at West Virginia.
20. Jake Snider, OF — 0-for-4 in one game at Bristol.
Yeah, it’s early. It was early a year ago, when the 2018 draftees were all struggling, and they’re still struggling. Just by random chance, a few guys should be doing well. Hopefully, a couple of these guys will turn things around, but when the same pattern keeps repeating itself, at some point you have to start drawing some conclusions.
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 4-3 to the St Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night. The Pirates will send out Jordan Lyles, who gave up one run over 5.2 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies five days ago. Prior to that outing, he had seven straight starts with at least three earned runs allowed. Lyles gave up one run over six innings versus St Louis on May 11th. The Cardinals will counter with veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright, who has a 4.50 ERA in 98 innings, with 93 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. He gave up seven runs over 3.1 innings five days ago, which followed seven shutout frames five days earlier. Wainwright faced the Pirates on Opening Day in Pittsburgh and gave up four runs over four innings. He then allowed one run over seven innings against them on May 10th.
The minor league schedule includes almost every game beginning by noon today. Only Morgantown has a later start time. James Marvel starts for Indianapolis for the fourth time. He is coming off of six shutout innings on one hit, one walk and nine strikeouts. Domingo Robles starts for Altoona. In ten starts with Bradenton this season, he had a 2.61 ERA. In ten outings with the Curve so far, he has a 5.15 ERA. Brad Case goes for Bradenton. He has given up five runs on seven hits and two walks in each of his last two outings, throwing a total of nine innings. Noe Toribio starts for Morgantown. He has made three starts this season and struck out seven batters in each of those games.
After a second straight rain out yesterday, Bristol has a doubleheader today. In game one they will send out Dante Mendoza, who has 21 strikeouts in 20 innings this season. He has given up just one earned run in his last two starts combined. Osvaldo Bido will attempt again for his 20th start of the season after a rain out last night. He ranks fifth in the South Atlantic League in innings pitched (105.2), fifth in WHIP (1.10) and his 3.58 ERA ranks tenth in the league.
MLB: Pittsburgh (46-54) vs Cardinals (53-47) 7:05 PM
Probable starter: Jordan Lyles (4.91 ERA, 87:32 SO/BB, 80.2 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (51-49) @ Syracuse (50-51) 12:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: James Marvel (2.55 ERA, 17:5 SO/BB, 17.2 IP)
AA: Altoona (52-47) vs Erie (54-44) 12:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Domingo Robles (5.15 ERA, 36:12 SO/BB, 50.2 IP)
High-A: Bradenton (54-46) @ Clearwater (52-49) 12:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Brad Case (4.38 ERA, 29:10 SO/BB, 39.0 IP)
Low-A: Greensboro (60-39) vs Asheville (45-56) 12:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Osvaldo Bido (3.58 ERA, 89:27 SO/BB, 105.2 IP)
Short-Season A: Morgantown (19-17) vs Batavia (23-14) 6:35 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Noe Toribio (2.88 ERA, 28:7 SO/BB, 25.0 IP)
Rookie: Bristol (15-17) @ Burlington (17-15) 11:00 AM DH (season preview)
Probable starter: Dante Mendoza (3.60 ERA, 21:12 SO/BB, 20.0 IP) and TBD
GCL: Pirates (8-15) vs Rays (12-11) 12:00 PM (season preview)
DSL: Pirates1 (22-22) vs Rays2 (26-17) 10:30 AM (season preview)
DSL: Pirates2 (36-8) vs Giants (18-26) 10:30 AM (season preview)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Altoona, a bunch of highlights from Monday night in GIF form, starting with this Bralin Jackson catch
.@BWaddell20 posts another 0⃣ thanks to this gem by @axxtionjaxxn
Scoreless game, middle of the third pic.twitter.com/0eLD0qSWXR
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) July 23, 2019
A Brett Pope triple to the gap
3⃣ bases and an RBI for No. 3⃣@BdPope13 gets us on the board in the third pic.twitter.com/tnU1sANFfj
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) July 23, 2019
Mitchell Tolman’s second RBI single
Anotha one for @MitchellTolman
Our lead is now 4-0 in the fourth#FullSteamAhead
Joel Cesar earns his first Altoona save, finishing the night with a strikeout
That's a Curve winner tonight!
Joel Cesar earns his first Double-A save.
FINAL: Curve 4, Erie 1 pic.twitter.com/Ld9fRzIpUm
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) July 23, 2019
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
7/23: Brandon Waddell promoted to Indianapolis. Nicholas Economos promoted to Altoona. Conner Loeprich promoted to Bradenton. Winston Nicacio promoted to Greensboro. Oliver Garcia promoted to Morgantown. Miguel Peralta released.
7/23: Luis Nova placed on Greensboro injured list. Nick Mears placed on Bradenton injured list.
7/23: Tyler Lyons placed on paternity list. Eric Wood placed on temporary inactive list.
7/22: Saul de la Cruz promoted to Bristol. Wilger Camacho sent to GCL Pirates.
7/22: Elvis Escobar assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.
7/20: Michael Gretler placed on injured list. Victor Ngoepe promoted to Greensboro.
7/19: Jerrick Suiter placed on Altoona injured list. Bralin Jackson activated from injured list.
7/18: Mike LoPresti promoted to Greensboro.
7/17: Bear Bellomy promoted to Morgantown.
7/16: Pirates sign Jesus Castillo.
7/16: Hunter Owen activated from Indianapolis injured list.
7/16: John O’Reilly promoted to Bradenton. Matt Eardensohn assigned to Bristol.
7/16: Lizardy Dicent assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
Four former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus a game of note from the 1901 season. Besides Barry Bonds, who has a bio linked above, there have been three other Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date.
Joe Oliver caught for the 1999 Pirates. He was mentioned here yesterday, when the Pirates traded away Jose Guillen as part of a four-player deal to acquire Oliver from the Devil Rays. The trade was made necessary by the season-ending injury to Jason Kendall. In 45 games for the Pirates, Oliver hit .201 and drove in 13 runs.
Preston Ward was a utility player for the Pirates from 1953 until 1956. He played first base, third base and right field while in Pittsburgh, hitting .240 in 305 games. Ward came to the Pirates from the Cubs in the ten-player deal that sent Ralph Kiner to Chicago, which is one of the biggest deals in team history.
Joe Schultz Sr, infielder for the 1916 Pirates. He hit .260 in 77 games for the Pirates and saw playing time at five different positions. Schultz is one of the rare father-son combos in team history, as his son played for Pittsburgh from 1939 until 1941. You can make his family connection with the Pirates even more rare, as his cousin was outfielder Hans Lobert, who was the member of the 1903 NL champs. Schultz Sr also had another cousin named Frank Lobert, who played in the majors and lived in Pittsburgh, but never played for his hometown team.
Finally, we have something from the 1901 season that you rarely see. The Pirates that year won their first NL pennant and on July 24th, they beat the Reds by an 11-2 score at home. What was interesting about that game was the fact the Pirates scored all eight innings they came to the plate. You can read a recap of the game in the link above.
