I might as well state up front that I don’t know. If I did, I imagine I could sell the information to the Pirates, as long as I didn’t want much money. Or maybe not. This is a question they should be asking themselves, but I don’t have much confidence they are, as they seem fully satisfied that their management plan is clicking on all cylinders.
If you were determined to find an answer, though, one thing you might do is consider whether they’re having more success with prep hitters. (In case it’s not clear, I’m ignoring junior college players in all this; they’re a very small sample size, anyway.) It’s tempting, right off the top, to conclude that the Pirates have done much better with prep hitters. Although they don’t draft nearly as many of them, two (Ke’Bryan Hayes and Cole Tucker) are among their top five or so prospects. Austin Meadows was an All-Star this year (unfortunately, not as a Pirate). Cal Mitchell is hitting fairly well at a young age in high A, Mason Martin appears to be breaking out and Jack Herman is doing well in full season ball just a year out of high school.
It’s not entirely that simple, though. From 2008 through 2013, the Pirates drafted and signed 17 prep position players. That’s not a lot, but it’s more than I would have guessed. The return is harder to judge, because the path to the majors is longer than for college draftees. It’s probably safe to say, though, that the Pirates have done a little better with prep than with college hitters, especially considering the much larger numbers with the latter. Meadows and Josh Bell are establishing themselves as stars this year, something that the Pirates never produced with a college hitter. Robbie Grossman has been a solid fourth outfielder (elsewhere, of course), producing 5.4 bWAR. Reese McGuire and Max Moroff at least reached the majors and even stand above zero in bWAR.
Starting in 2014, it’s even harder to judge because none of the prep hitters has even reached the majors, other than a short stint for Tucker. The Pirates signed Tucker that year, along with two others who quickly disappeared. The only prep hitter they signed in 2015 was Hayes. In 2016, they didn’t sign a single prep hitter. In 2017, they signed three: Mitchell, Conner Uselton and Mason Martin. Uselton had a dismal season at Bristol last year. This year, he’s not playing and he’s not hurt; you’ll have to make your own guesses about that. But that’s two of three doing well, which is pretty darn good at this stage. In 2018, the only prep hitter they signed was Herman and that’s going well so far, too. (This year, they signed four prep hitters, which is a fairly large group. We’ll have to see where that goes.)
So with a whole lot of data still needed — especially with Tucker, Hayes, Mitchell, Martin and Herman — the Pirates seem to be doing well, particularly in recent years, at finding prep hitters who at least can move forward as pros in a promising manner. That contrasts sharply with their college hitters, a large percentage of whom seem overmatched from the get-go and never progress. It’s especially startling to compare what Martin and Herman did/have done this year at Greensboro, at the age of college sophomores, compared to older players like Connor Kaiser, Grant Koch, Brett Kinneman, Mike Gretler and Zack Kone, who are a year removed from major college programs. For that matter, Mitchell and Martin are both out-hitting Travis Swaggerty now at Bradenton. And it’s a consistent pattern of prep hitters dramatically outperforming older college hitters.
One possibility is that the Pirates don’t distinguish adequately between prep hitters who are still early in their development and college hitters who are probably very close to finished products. This is all speculation, but the Pirates have always struck me as placing too much faith in their development process, and that’s quite apart from the growing evidence that they’re well below average at it. They’ve had a habit of drafting college hitters whose swings or approaches clearly needed major work; Casey Hughston, Dylan Busby and, this year, Matt Gorski and Blake Sabol, are examples. In fact, this year the Pirates’ approach with college hitters seems to have emphasized athleticism, resulting in them drafting heavily for good athletes with dubious track records at the plate.
Another possibility, which was raised in the comments yesterday, is that college hitters just don’t offer much upside. The only data I recall seeing about this indicates that college hitters are easily the best demographic to pursue in the first round, but obviously we’re talking almost entirely here about players drafted after that. It sure seems like it’d make sense to examine this, especially if you were, say, a major league team with an analytics department. It might even make sense for the Pirates to draft mainly college seniors and other players they could sign well below slot in rounds 2-10, then use the money on every projectable prep position player they could find in later rounds, something they actually did to a limited degree this year. In all events, they need to pursue some alternative answers here, because what they’re doing isn’t working.
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 14-8 to the St Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night. The Pirates will send out Joe Musgrove this afternoon for his 21st start. He tossed six shutout innings in his last outing, while striking out eight batters. Musgrove has faced the Cardinals twice this year, allowing eight runs over three innings in his first outing, followed by five runs over 4.2 innings next time out. He has a 4.13 ERA in ten starts at home. The Cardinals will counter with right-hander Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.17 ERA in 114.1 innings, with 82 strikeouts and a 1.23 WHIP. He gave up three runs over six innings against the Cincinnati Reds in his previous start. Mikolas started against the Pirates on July 15th and threw a complete game shutout. He also faced Pittsburgh on May 11th (two earned over seven innings) and April 3rd (three runs over five innings.
The minor league schedule includes Greensboro playing a doubleheader today. Steven Jennings will start game one. He has been limited (on purpose) to 4-5 innings in each of his last five starts to help control his innings. Jennings has already pitched 24.2 more innings than last year in Bristol. Winston Nicacio will make his Greensboro debut in the second game. He had a 2.96 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 24.1 innings with Morgantown. Alex McRae makes his 17th start for Indianapolis. He has allowed 2-4 runs in each of his last nine starts.
Morgantown is sending out fourth round pick JC Flowers for his third appearance. He has thrown three shutout innings so far, though he has allowed six base runners. Bradenton’s Gavin Wallace allowed seven runs over 5.2 innings in his last start. He gave up seven runs in his previous nine outings combined, covering 38.1 innings. Bristol is sending out Santiago Florez for his sixth start. He allowed two runs over four innings in his last game, which followed 4.1 shutout against the same team six days earlier.
MLB: Pittsburgh (46-55) vs Cardinals (54-47) 12:35 PM
Probable starter: Joe Musgrove (4.08 ERA, 98:28 SO/BB, 110.1 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (52-49) @ Syracuse (50-52) 6:35 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Alex McRae (4.96 ERA, 76:27 SO/BB, 89.0 IP)
AA: Altoona (52-48) vs Richmond (36-64) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: TBD
High-A: Bradenton (54-46) vs St Lucie (55-46) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Gavin Wallace (4.30 ERA, 47:16 SO/BB, 67.0 IP)
Low-A: Greensboro (61-39) vs Asheville (45-57) 5:30 PM DH (season preview)
Probable starter: Steven Jennings (5.10 ERA, 82:31 SO/BB, 90.0 IP) and Winston Nicacio (NR)
Short-Season A: Morgantown (20-17) vs Batavia (24-15) 6:35 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: JC Flowers (0.00 ERA, 2:3 SO/BB, 3.0 IP)
Rookie: Bristol (15-19) @ Burlington (19-15) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Santiago Florez (3.10 ERA, 16:7 SO/BB, 20.1 IP)
GCL: Pirates (9-15) vs Rays (12-11) 12:00 PM (season preview)
DSL: Pirates1 (22-23) vs Rays2 (27-17) 10:30 AM (season preview)
DSL: Pirates2 (37-8) vs Giants (18-27) 10:30 AM (season preview)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Altoona on Tuesday night, Nicholas Economos took the loss, but still has a decent outing with 5.2 innings and seven strikeouts. Here’s his first Double-A strikeout
A tip of the
Brett Pope showing off the glove
Holy moly, @BdPope13, what a gem
Altoona lost both games last night, so there weren’t many offensive highlights, but here’s Arden Pabst bring home Jared Oliva with the lone run in game two
A little bit at a time.@arden_pabst drops a single to right and scores @Jared_Oliva41
⬇️6⃣ Erie 3, Yinzers 1 pic.twitter.com/YZHTgLzx7h
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) July 24, 2019
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
7/24: Keone Kela added to Pirates roster. Clay Holmes placed on injured list.
7/24: Angel German suspended by Altoona.
7/23: Brandon Waddell promoted to Indianapolis. Nicholas Economos promoted to Altoona. Conner Loeprich promoted to Bradenton. Winston Nicacio promoted to Greensboro. Oliver Garcia promoted to Morgantown. Miguel Peralta released.
7/23: Luis Nova placed on Greensboro injured list. Nick Mears placed on Bradenton injured list.
7/23: Tyler Lyons placed on paternity list. Eric Wood placed on temporary inactive list.
7/22: Saul de la Cruz promoted to Bristol. Wilger Camacho sent to GCL Pirates.
7/22: Elvis Escobar assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.
7/20: Michael Gretler placed on injured list. Victor Ngoepe promoted to Greensboro.
7/19: Jerrick Suiter placed on Altoona injured list. Bralin Jackson activated from injured list.
7/18: Mike LoPresti promoted to Greensboro.
7/17: Bear Bellomy promoted to Morgantown.
7/16: Pirates sign Jesus Castillo.
7/16: Hunter Owen activated from Indianapolis injured list.
7/16: John O’Reilly promoted to Bradenton. Matt Eardensohn assigned to Bristol.
7/16: Lizardy Dicent assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
Five former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus a trade of note. We start with one of the best pitchers in the last 30 years for the franchise, possibly the best. Doug Drabek pitched six seasons in Pittsburgh and his 1990 Cy Young award is the last one won by a Pirates’ pitcher. He helped the Pirates to three straight playoffs during their 1990-92 run. Drabek went 92-62, 3.02 in 1,362.2 innings over 196 starts in Pittsburgh. You can read a full bio on Drabek here.
Other players born on this date include 2010-13 outfielder Alex Presley. Ed Sprague, who was the third baseman during the 1999 season. Jack McMahan, a pitcher in 1956 that the Pirates picked up in the November 1955 Rule 5 draft. Also outfielder Marv Rackley, who spent the 1949 season with the Pirates. He passed away in April 2018 at age 96, the second oldest living Pittsburgh Pirates player at the time.
On this date in 1896, the Pirates traded first baseman Jake Beckley to the New York Giants for first baseman Harry Davis and cash. The deal was unpopular at the time and did not work out well. Beckley is a Hall of Famer, who was the Pirates career home run leader until being passed by Honus Wagner in 1908. He also had a strong career after the deal, while Davis lasted with Pittsburgh until 1898 when he was sold to Louisville. You can read more on this deal, the players listed above and a 1956 game recap, in the link at the top of this section.
