BRADENTON, Fla. – Clay Holmes has always been on the prospect radar for the Pirates. That’s the sort of thing that happens from day one when you’re given a $1.2 M signing bonus out of high school in the ninth round — a figure that is still a record. Holmes was overshadowed in the Pirates’ 2011 draft by Gerrit Cole, Josh Bell, and Tyler Glasnow, but his ability to hit low-to-mid 90s at a young age, with a promising breaking pitch, allowed him to be another prospect added to that loaded draft class.
The biggest flaw for Holmes early in his career was a lack of control. He had a high walk rate in his pro debut in 2012, and that got worse in his first full season in West Virginia in 2013. He showed some promise at the end of that season, with second half improvements. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery prior to the 2014 season, putting his progress on hold.
Holmes returned from Tommy John in the second half of the 2015 season, and pitched a full season in Altoona in 2016. He made some significant changes to his game in his return, and those were very noticeable when he came into camp this spring.
The biggest change came with his arsenal. He switched to a two-seam fastball, then added a new hard slider/cutter at the end of the 2016 season. Sean McCool reported on this last September, noting that Holmes and Tyler Eppler both added the slider/cutter. For Holmes, the new breaking pitch was aimed at giving him something that paired well with his two-seamer, and would hopefully improve his strikeout rates, which usually sat around the 6.6-6.8 K/9 range.
“It’s something I think is probably going to be a big part of me this year,” Holmes said of the new pitch. “Something I’m getting a lot more feel for, and getting to feel the spin of it and getting to throw it to both sides of the plate. It’s something that is really going to help me with the two-seam.”
The slider pairs nicely with the two-seam, since it comes in hard like a fastball, then breaks the opposite way. The two-seam is a good addition for Holmes, although not exactly a new pitch. He had it in high school, but the Pirates switched him to a four-seam when he went pro, aiming at getting him control and command of the fastball. He was given the two-seam back in Altoona last year, and showed so much comfort with it that they made it his primary pitch.
“I started throwing it, and the feel has always been there because growing up, that’s just how I threw a baseball,” Holmes said. “That’s how it started. It’s definitely my best pitch now. Got a lot of ground balls, got a lot of weak contact, and swing and misses. I think that was a big part of my later half of the year and kind of who I am now.”
The ground ball rate was very high, at 62.8%. He was generating a lot of weak contact. He also saw better control, which makes sense, as the two-seamer is more forgiving than a four-seamer. The four-seam fastball requires that you hit your target. The two-seamer is more about the break of the pitch, allowing you to throw to a general location and let the movement do the work. This approach benefits Holmes a lot more.
“The type of pitcher I am, I’m not really going to be perfect with a lot of pitches,” Holmes said. “They’re going to have more movement, and throwing to contact for swings. That’s something with the four-seam, it’s kind of hard to have that mentality. You have to be a little more perfect with it. I feel like I can throw [the two-seamer] up there to get a swing, trust the action of it.”
The pitch arsenal worked well for Holmes in his first Spring Training action today. He got off to a rough start in his outing, but quickly settled down and pitched two shutout innings, giving up one hit, walking one, and striking out four. He was sitting 93-96, and hit 97 once, according to the stadium gun. That was a normal velocity range for him last year.
The biggest difference I noticed this year though is how much extension Holmes is getting in his delivery. He used to have a delivery that was very stiff and upright. Looking from the side, it was almost like a cartwheel. The first day I was taking photos of him, I noticed how much lower he was getting, and how much further to the plate he was getting. Holmes chalked this up to having more athleticism.
“I think just being a little more athletic on the mound, there’s probably more extension there,” Holmes said. “It’s not something that’s been a focus, but using the lower half and using my backside has always been something that I could improve on. With that, getting a little more feel on the delivery has probably created a little more extension.”
Here is a look at Holmes in his first pro season from the side, followed by his bullpen sessions this year.
You can see that Holmes is getting to his lower half in the newer photos. That puts less stress on his arm, which is something he brought up, and something that is definitely a good change for a guy returning from Tommy John.
“It’s definitely something that’s gotten better,” Holmes said. “It’s going to be a little easier to repeat. Using my backside is going to help. It’s going to take some off the arm, be easier to get more velo. I think we’re going in a good direction with that.”
This is the first normal offseason and Spring Training that Holmes has had since his return from Tommy John. He won’t have a shot at making the MLB rotation out of Spring Training, but will get a chance to build up for a normal season.
“Going into [the 2015-16] offseason required probably a little more rest than normal,” Holmes said. “This offseason, I felt great going into the offseason. Most things I was able to jump right into and get going. I felt like I made a lot of progress this offseason. It was good to be able to get a full offseason and show up to camp.”
The Pirates noticed the progress, not just in the offseason, but in the second half last year. This led to Holmes getting protected on the 40-man roster, rather than being exposed to the Rule 5 draft. He was left unprotected after the 2015 season, but wasn’t selected. They obviously saw a change in him last year that led them to believe he was a risk to be selected, and worth protecting.
“A lot of good things last year,” Hurdle said of the progress Holmes made. “A strong finish. I watched video, I talked to the coaches. Command has continued to improve. Ability to throw secondary pitches for strikes. There’s power, there’s finish to the fastball, there’s spin. It’s downhill angle, it’s firm. You like the adjustments and the application of the learning that he’s taking on. He’s a big, strong man. We think he’s got a very good opportunity to pitch for us at the Major League level sometime sooner than later.”
Holmes has a shot to start the year in the Indianapolis rotation, although that will be a crowded group. He should be up in that rotation at some point in 2017. He could reach the majors by the end of the year, although with all the depth in front of him, the 2018 season seems more likely. His upside is higher than the other guys around him in Altoona, with the chance to be a strong number four starter, or possibly a number three. That all depends on how his adjustments continue, and whether he’s able to add strikeouts and continue improvements with the command. So far, he’s on the right track with both.
