The Arizona Fall League wrapped up play on Saturday with the Surprise Saguaros losing 6-1 to Mesa in the championship game. The Pittsburgh Pirates sent seven players to the AFL and had mixed results from their group, with strong seasons from Eric Wood on offense and Edgar Santana out of the bullpen leading the way. We had live coverage of the AFL during the first week of November and you can find an article on each player from that coverage in the recaps below.
The best hitter for the Pirates was Eric Wood, who was one of the best hitters in the league. He finished sixth in average with a .330 mark, while his .876 OPS ranked eighth. Wood also finished second with 29 hits and drove in 20 runs, which led the league. He was one of six finalists for the league MVP award. Despite his success, he wasn’t added to the 40-man roster on Friday ahead of the Rule 5 draft. Wood is normally a third baseman, but he started playing outfield in the Fall Instructional League and that carried over to the AFL. He also added first base to his resume. That versatility could make him a potential pick in the draft. While not many third basemen get picked in the Rule 5 (three in the last 19 years), adding first base and outfield to his resume gives him more chances to play.
Wood had a strong season at Altoona as a 23-year-old, hitting 16 homers, which was one more than he hit in his first four years combined. He also did that while cutting down his strikeouts and improving his walk rate. On top of that, he was voted the best defensive third baseman by the coaches and managers in the league. The hitting carried over to the AFL and he had some impressive showings on the defensive side. He also received a lot of praise from former MLB scout Bernie Pleskoff, who spent the entire AFL season giving updates on the league. Indianapolis will have a crowded infield with or without Wood, so that (along with the lack of third basemen being picked) may have played into the decision of the Pirates not to protect him. Assuming he isn’t picked in the Rule 5 draft, expect him to play multiple positions for Indianapolis.
Just like Wood, Connor Joe started playing outfield this fall, while also seeing time at third base. Joe had a tough time with his batting average (.204) in the AFL, but he still finished with a .718 OPS due to 11 walks and two home runs in 15 games. The AFL isn’t a huge home run league, with no one hitting more than seven in a season the last five years. Joe’s two homers were more than a large portion of the players hit this season. I mention that because he went on a bit of a home run tear during the Florida State League playoffs and the power seemed to carry over to the AFL. That’s coming from someone who hit six homers during his first two seasons combined.
Joe has a solid approach at the plate and if he can continue to show some power, then the Pirates could have a nice MLB bat on their hands. The question will be where he ends up playing defensively. He spent the 2015 season at first base and looked much better there than he did at third base this year. Adding outfield to the mix will give him more chances to break the MLB roster. Before he does that, his late-season hitting and power has to carry over into the upper levels and that’s no guarantee.
Jin-De Jhang went to the AFL to get more time behind the plate, though the team had four catchers, so his actual game play was limited to 14 games, with some coming as the designated hitter. With the large pitching staffs, he still did plenty of bullpen catching, even if he didn’t get much game action. Jhang did a solid job at the plate, looking much like the hitter we have seen for years. He hit .319 with three doubles, six walks and five strikeouts. That is basically the hitter you will get with him. He’s a line drive hitter with limited power and doesn’t take many walks, but has the ability to hit for a high average because he doesn’t try to do too much. It also helps that he doesn’t strike out often.
Jhang looks to be set for the starting job in Altoona next season, where he should see plenty of action behind the plate. He’s available in the Rule 5 draft, but it’s unlikely that anyone takes him due to the work he still needs to put in behind the plate. He has a strong arm, but it’s tough to hide a catcher on the roster all season unless his defense adds value and Jhang’s glove isn’t MLB caliber at this point.
The best pitcher for the Pirates going into the AFL season was Edgar Santana, and he didn’t disappoint. He pitched like someone who is just one step away from the majors. Santana threw 13.2 shutout innings over the course of the season, plus retired the only two batters he faced in the Fall-Stars game. He did that by mixing a fastball that sat 93-97 MPH, with a mid-80s slider that got a lot of swing and misses. Santana also commanded both pitches well with just two walks. Those free passes came in the same inning and each had multiple questionable calls according to PITCHf/x that day.
Santana finished with 18 strikeouts and a 2.00 GO/AO ratio. The strikeout rate was higher than his regular season total, which was just under one per inning, but the ground ball rate was slightly lower than his outstanding regular season mark. When Santana is on, which is most of the time, he gets a lot of soft contact that produces quick outs. As his AFL stint showed, he has the ability to pick up strikeouts in big spots as well. That pitch-to-contact style allows him to go deeper into outings by keeping the pitch count down.
Santana also started throwing a changeup in the AFL. He threw the pitch on the side during the regular season, but said that he rarely brought it during games. His fastball/slider combo seems like it’s enough for him to be a dominant reliever in the majors, so I don’t expect the changeup to be anything more than a show-me pitch unless they plan to expand his role. He will likely start the season in Indianapolis and could be ready for Pittsburgh early in the season.
Alex McRae went to the AFL to work on his new changeup and he had mixed results. He had some very good outings, but also got hit around in other games. In Saturday’s title game, he not only got hit hard, he also had control issues. McRae finished the AFL season (not including Saturday’s line) with a 3.38 ERA and a 2.00 GO/AO ratio over 16 innings. He had a decent 1.19 WHIP and only walked four batters. The downside was that his nine strikeouts gave him the worst strikeout rate of the 20 regular pitchers on the team.
McRae has always been a ground ball pitcher, who doesn’t strike out many batters. Since he tops out at 93-94 MPH as a reliever with his four-seam fastball, but relies more on a slightly lower velocity two-seamer for quick outs on the ground, that will likely limit him to a middle reliever in the majors. With better secondary pitches and a strikeout pitch (which aren’t easy to add), he could end up as a fifth starter. The middle reliever future seems more likely at this point. He should begin the year in the Altoona rotation.
The only Pirate in the starting rotation for Surprise was Tanner Anderson, who made seven starts during the AFL season. He was there to get more innings and work on his changeup, which was a dominating pitch in his last start. Anderson threw 26.1 innings in the AFL, which was after 94.2 innings during the season (including playoffs), plus a short stint in the Fall Instructional League. If the Pirates wanted to use him as a starter next season, they could do it without any innings restrictions because of the base total he set this year since April. He profiles more as a future reliever, but it’s an interesting decision because he has dominated in short outings.
Anderson only had a half year at Bradenton before the AFL, so it was an advanced placement compared to most players in the league. He pitches to contact and can get quick outs on the ground, which allows him to go deeper in games than most relievers. Anderson had a 2.79 GO/AO ratio in the AFL and improved his strikeout rate over the regular season, going from 5.11 K/9 during the season, to 6.49 in the AFL. Improving the changeup was key to that difference, and allowed him to be more than someone who relied on his fastball and deception most of the time. Between his time in Bradenton and the AFL, he should be ready for Altoona next season. His placement might matter more on where the Pirates see him fitting in, as far as starting or long relief. The four full-season affiliates look crowded in the rotations, so there is a lot to sort out.
Montana DuRapau had some issues during the season with pitches up in the zone and his velocity was down compared to last year. He used the AFL to work on secondary pitches and improve his cutter. He had a few nice outings at the end of the league, but a rough start had him finish with a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in ten appearances.
The good from his time in the AFL was the return of his velocity, which saw him touch 92-93 numerous times. That’s where he was when he was successful in 2015, and higher than where he was for most of the 2016 season. The bad was that he still left a lot of pitches up in the zone, plus his control wasn’t that best, and that led to the poor results.
The Pirates tend to fill the Indianapolis bullpen with veterans, plus Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas are guaranteed spots there, so DuRapau will likely begin 2017 back in the Altoona bullpen. He could use the time there to work on those flaws that could keep him from reaching his ceiling of a middle reliever in the majors.
