In most years, the Rule 5 draft is one of the biggest single off-season events for the Pirates, specifically when it comes to protecting players. It doesn’t have a bigger impact than signing free agents or making trades. The Pirates aren’t making tough choices by adding guys like Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon to the 40-man roster. But it does give an indication of the talent coming through the system, and shows the next prospects who could be ready to make the jump to the majors.
This year, that won’t be the case. In my mid-season article, when I first looked at the Rule 5 eligible players, I detailed five players who needed to be protected. Two of those players — Steven Brault and Trevor Williams — have already been added to the 40-man roster, thus protecting them from the draft. Two more — Stephen Tarpley and Tito Polo — were traded for Ivan Nova. The Pirates also added Chad Kuhl, Adam Frazier, and Jacob Stallings to the 40-man this year, taking away three more players who would have been eligible.
That leaves a short list this off-season, with most of the work to protect the best players already completed. This could open the door for some additional players to be protected, who otherwise would have missed the cut due to the numbers game. Here is the list of eligible players, with my notes at the bottom of each section on who should be protected this November.
Previously Eligible
In Our Mid-Season Top 50
Barrett Barnes
Edwin Espinal
Clay Holmes
Dovydas Neverauskas
Jose Osuna
Eric Wood
Others
Stetson Allie
Danny Arribas
Colten Brewer
Jake Burnette
Jason Creasy
Chris Diaz
Elvis Escobar
Adrian Grullon
Luis Heredia
Delvin Hiciano
Jin-De Jhang
Sam Kennelly
John Kuchno
Jared Lakind
Jhondaniel Medina
Yunior Montero
Tomas Morales
Carlos Munoz
Cesilio Pimentel
Jose Regalado
Alfredo Reyes
Francis Rodriguez
Henrry Rosario
Casey Sadler
Angel Sanchez
Sandy Santos
Jon Schwind
Rinku Singh
Josh Smith
Julio Vivas
Notes: When I looked at this list mid-season, Clay Holmes was the guy who stood out. That hasn’t really changed, especially after a strong second half from the right-hander coming off Tommy John surgery. I think with the strong season that Barrett Barnes had in Altoona, plus his ability to avoid major injuries the last two years, he now becomes a second player to protect. There were other players who looked like options, but might have missed the cut due to the high amount of players who needed to be protected. With fewer options to protect now, the Pirates could add some of those weaker options this November.
The guy who stands out the most is Dovydas Neverauskas. He made headlines for the wrong reasons at the end of the year, due to his arrest in Toledo. However, before that, he was consistently working in the upper 90s with his fastball, and looking like a great relief option. He is also a free agent at the end of the year, so the Pirates risk losing him if they don’t protect him. He was punished for the Toledo arrest by being suspended the final week of the Indianapolis season. And then, rather than going to the majors in September — where he would have made about $50-75 K extra for the year — he was sent to instructs, which involved a lot of sunblock and still miserable humidity.
The arrest for Neverauskas was bad, but he’s been punished enough for that. Extending that punishment to getting rid of him for good would be excessive, and foolish.
At the time of the mid-season update, Eric Wood was having a decent season. He had a strong finish, and was invited to the Arizona Fall League by the Pirates, which raised the chances that he’ll be protected. Usually, third basemen aren’t a risk to be taken, since it’s harder to stash them on the 25-man roster all year. But Wood has good defense at the position, and the Pirates are spending the AFL giving him work in the outfield, which could make him a bigger risk to be taken than most third basemen.
Jose Osuna would be a free agent at the end of the year, and while first basemen rarely get taken and rarely stick, adding him to the 40-man roster would be about keeping him around, just like with Neverauskas. He improved his stock in the second half, putting up an .815 OPS in Indianapolis, which was the first time he had an OPS over .800 at a level in a year since his second run through High-A in 2014.
Jared Lakind and Jin-De Jhang are two interesting prospects who just missed our mid-season top 50 list. Lakind is a lefty reliever with some velocity, although they could opt to try and bring him back on a minor league deal. Jhang has improved defensively, and has some offensive upside, but there is little risk he gets drafted.
Casey Sadler and Angel Sanchez are on the list, although both are eligible for free agency, and it’s more likely the Pirates try to bring them back as minor league depth options.
First Time Eligible in 2016
In Our Mid-Season Top 50
Erich Weiss
Others
Luis Benitez
Johan De Jesus
Cody Dickson
Rudy Guzman
Jhoan Herrera
Henry Hirsch
Justin Maffei
Wyatt Mathisen
Brett McKinney
Luis Perez
Pablo Reyes
Miguel Rosario
Justin Topa
Eduardo Vera
Julian Villamar
David Whitehead
Notes: This list had a lot of options at the start of the season. Chad Kuhl and Adam Frazier were on the list, but were added by mid-season. Steven Brault and Trevor Williams were on the mid-season list, and joined the Pirates in the second half. Stephen Tarpley and Tito Polo were traded for Ivan Nova. The other notable player, Jacob Stallings, is currently on the 40-man roster.
That leaves Erich Weiss, who isn’t a strong candidate to be protected, and plays a position of strong depth in the upper levels as a middle infielder who profiles as a utility infielder in the long-term. Other notable players here are Wyatt Mathisen, Pablo Reyes, and Cody Dickson, although none are at risk of being taken in the draft.
No Need to Wait For November
Typically, the Rule 5 additions are a big day in November, and very predictable on who the Pirates will add. This year, they’ve already added the top options, and traded the others. This article before the season would have been about Chad Kuhl, Adam Frazier, Steven Brault, Trevor Williams, Stephen Tarpley, Tito Polo, and then talking about how guys like Clay Holmes, Barrett Barnes, Dovydas Neverauskas, and Eric Wood might get squeezed out for space.
The Pirates already added the first four guys above, and traded the other two. That leaves Holmes and Barnes as the guys who they should obviously protect. I think it makes sense to protect Neverauskas and Osuna, just to keep them around in the system. And Eric Wood had a good enough season and improved his stock enough that they could protect him and avoid potentially losing him.
That would give the Pirates up to five players to protect, with Holmes and Barnes having the highest upside, and the other three not being strong enough options in most years.
