It’s pretty obvious that the Pirates need to upgrade their pitching this off-season. Their starting rotation under-performed on a widespread level in 2016, with almost every starting pitcher falling short of his projections. Most of the relievers also struggled, which is a bad combination. As a result, the Pirates went from 697 runs scored last year to 729 this year on offense, but went from 596 runs allowed to 758 this year.
There are some basic principles here that don’t speak well about the 2016 season. The offense improved by 32 runs over last year, but the pitching allowed 162 additional runs. Aside from the fact that giving up more runs than you score is a recipe for a losing season, and they accomplished both of those tasks, seeing a net swing of -130 runs in one season is pretty alarming. If you assume ten runs equals one win, then the Pirates lost 13 wins from their run totals from 2015 to 2016.
This isn’t entirely on the pitching staff. There were some pretty alarming things there, like the fact that they gave up more home runs per fly ball (13% vs 9.4% last year), which combined with more fly balls (31.8% vs 27.4%) led to a lot more home runs. They gave up 180 home runs this year compared to 110 last year. That’s a massive swing that explains a lot of the additional runs this time around.
A big focus for the Pirates this off-season needs to be upgrading the pitching, along with fixing whatever problem was leading to the additional home runs from their returning pitchers. I’ve talked about that a lot already this off-season, and will talk about it more as the off-season goes on. But tonight I wanted to talk about the defense, mostly because I just finished three season recaps that showed some pretty telling trends.
Over the weekend, I recapped the second base position, noting that Josh Harrison didn’t have the best offense among MLB second basemen, but had some of the best defense and base running run totals. At the shortstop position, Jordy Mercer also ranked lower on offense, but had base running value. He normally has good defense, but saw his numbers down this year. Jung Ho Kang actually provided offense at third base, improving on his numbers from last year, although he saw his defense and base running value drop.
The argument for or against players generally relies around offense. If a player is struggling offensively, he’s usually the target of calls for being replaced, even if he has good defense. If a player is producing offensively, his defense has to be really bad in order to get people to notice the downside to the game. I saw that a lot in this weekend’s recaps.
I wrote about how Harrison provides what the Pirates need. The Pirates ranked 13th in the NL in defense and 13th in base running. Meanwhile, their advanced offensive metrics put them in the top six at worst, and the top three at best. Harrison is a guy who ranks among the best second basemen in defense and base running, and among the bottom third of second basemen on offense. Mercer didn’t have the best defense this year, but he’s been solid in the past. His base running ranked among the best for shortstops, and his offense ranked bottom third.
In both cases, the Pirates sacrificed offense for expected defense and the added bonus of base running value. And looking at their offensive production, which included a lot of players playing below projections, they can afford to give up some offense at these two positions in exchange for defense. They can’t afford to lose anymore defense in exchange for added offense. That would be like trading pitching for hitting at this point. It goes opposite of what the team needs.
But if the Pirates are already sacrificing offense for better defense at these spots, then where will the upgrades come from next year?
For one, their defense behind the plate should improve, as it’s unlikely they have the disaster of an injury situation they had this year, leading to Eric Fryer and Erik Kratz as starters for about a month. They should still have injuries, but not to this extreme.
Mercer’s numbers were down this year, but he’s been better in the past, and is a good bet to bounce back and put up stronger numbers next year. Kang also saw his numbers down, along with his base running runs. You could chalk this up to the knee injury, and hope that he improves in each area in his second year back from the knee injury.
The Pirates have two big problem areas, and no great solutions. One area is first base, where Josh Bell looks to be the starter next year. Bell will be in his third year as a first baseman, but has a long way to go to even provide John Jaso’s level of defense, which isn’t providing positive value. David Freese had the best defense at first base this year, but he’s unlikely to start over Bell. The Pirates should just hope that Bell sees improvements, while realizing those improvements might still leave him as a bad defender. The more likely situation is they might have to get creative, going with late inning defensive replacements at first base, and maybe even third base if Kang doesn’t rebound.
The other problem area is center field. Andrew McCutchen has never consistently been a good defender. He won a Gold Glove, but those typically are awarded to people who get noticed for their offense (the trend of noticing offense and ignoring defense even extends to the defensive award decisions). This year, McCutchen was the worst defensive center fielder among 31 qualified center fielders with 550+ innings. He ranked 31st in UZR/150 with -23.2, and 31st in UZR/150 with -28 Defensive Runs Saved. The number 30 ranked player had -17 DRS. That means the difference between McCutchen and the second worst center fielder was 11 runs, or over a win. The difference between McCutchen and a middle of the pack center fielder is about 30 runs, or three wins.
There’s not much the Pirates can do in Bell’s situation, unless they want to abandon Bell altogether. They can definitely do something with McCutchen. They have two other center fielders in the same outfield, and both are better options. Starling Marte would be the better choice, after being one of the best defenders in left field the last few years, and playing in a left field that is as big as most center fields. That would be a problem in terms of where to move McCutchen, as he’d have issues moving to left field, and doesn’t have the arm for right field. There’s also the issue that moving McCutchen isn’t that simple, as the Pirates seem to be placing the decision in his hands on when the right time to move would be.
The Pirates could easily see some upgrades if Mercer and/or Kang bounce back to their pre-2016 defensive production. They should definitely see upgrades behind the plate with just a normal season of injuries. And that might be enough to get them to a point where they can contend, with a few pitching upgrades thrown in to the mix. But if they want some big defensive upgrades, they will need to address either the first base situation, or the outfield situation, with the outfield defense being the one that they can fix the easiest.
**2016 Third Base Recap: Pirates Look Set in the Short and Long Term at Third. My recap of the third basemen today, including a look at the growing prospect depth the Pirates have at the position.
**AFL: Eric Wood’s Homer Accounts for Only Offense in 7-2 Loss. Speaking of those third base prospects, Wood isn’t the highest ranked, but he is the guy at the highest level, and is carrying over his 2016 power to the off-season.
