First Pitch: Evaluating the Pirates Offensive Emphasis

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As discussed yesterday, the 2014 Pirates are emphasizing on-base percentage in hopes of improving an offense that ranked ninth in the National League by scoring 3.91 runs per game during the 2013 season.

The key elements to this approach are being “intelligently aggressive” at the plate, striking out less and working counts to see good pitches to hit as opposed to flailing away at what a pitcher wants to throw in a given situation.

Although the sample sizes are quite miniscule through 26 games, the question begs asking; Is the Pirates’ “emphasis” working?

The easiest way to look at the effectiveness of the OBP-centric philosophy so far is comparing this year’s on-base percentage to last season’s.

So, based on the fact the Pirates’ OBP is .017 points lower than it was last year, it’s pretty easy to say that the emphasis on improving in that area is not working out so well.

But as noted by Neal Huntington, Jeff Branson and Clint Hurdle, a key tenet of the emphasis on on-base percentage is the team’s approach at the plate. In other words, how disciplined the Pirates are in the batter’s box and whether they’re swinging at good pitches or not. So let’s dig in.

Swing by Swing

On a swing-to-swing basis, the Pirates have actually made some noticeable improvements early this season.

In addition to the above numbers, the Pirates have the lowest first-pitch strike rate in the league (57.6 percent) and have shown increased discipline as only 9.4 percent of their strikes are swings and misses as opposed to last year’s 10.2 percent clip.

Furthering the notion that the Pirates have improved their discipline at the plate is a four percent decrease in their swings at pitches outside the strike zone, and they are swinging at 2.5 percent fewer pitchers overall. These correlate with the team’s higher overall contact rate in 2014, however marginal it may be, as well as an increase in pitches thrown in the strike zone.

Pitch by Pitch

One primary reason for the Pirates’ current offensive downturn, and early decline from last season, is that hitters are receiving a lesser number of pitches to hit even though pitchers may be throwing in the zone slightly more than a year ago.

While the Pirates have made improvements with their patience on a pitch-to-pitch basis, they simply are not seeing as many pitchers this year as they did a year ago.

So far, there is only a -1.5 percent change from last year to the current season but the trend becomes more concerning when looking at the comparisons of the team’s batters currently qualified in the 2014 season, according to baseball-reference.com. And bear in mind, 1.5 percent translates to seeing about 356 pitches less than last season, which can equate to over two full games worth of pitches.

McCutchen has taken the biggest strides, as one would expect in just about any area from an MVP, with a 10.3 percent increase in the amount of pitches he is seeing during each plate appearance. But the rest of the Pirates’ hitters have not come close to making similar improvements as, of qualified batters, only Marte has improved but only at a 1.6 percent mark.

As for the rest of the Pirates’ hitters, six of the eight currently qualified players are in the red when comparing this current season to the last. Martin’s change from last season to this is only -1.5 percent and has a marginal effect at best on this year’s numbers.

As for the other five players, their declines in the area play a large role in the changes to the team’s pitches per plate appearance tally. Jose Tabata is seeing 7.5 percent less pitches per plate appearance this season, while Walker is seeing 5.4 percent less, Snider 4.7 percent, Alvarez 4.6 percent and Mercer 2.6 percent.

These numbers all seem small as they are only just percentages in the single-digits, making them small decimals by extension. But for players like Walker and Alvarez, who each saw over 2,000 pitches a year ago, a simple five percent decrease means over 100 less pitches to see.

For someone like Alvarez, who homered once every 67 pitches last year, that could amount to two fewer home runs over the course of a season. And with the Pirates offense as strapped as it currently is, those are power numbers the team can’t afford to leave on the table.

Strikeouts and Walks

To zoom back out, though, the Pirates have become one of the better teams in the National League this season in terms of their standings in walk and strikeout rates.

The Pirates had the third-worst strikeout rate among all N.L. teams a year ago and although their rate isn’t significantly improved, their current percentage is sixth-best in the league. Strikeouts are trending much higher through the first month of the season, with only two teams owning strikeout rates below 20 percent while eight clubs finished below that threshold in 2013.

In addition, the Pirates’ moderately-improved walk rate ties with Cincinnati for the league’s fifth-best mark. Sticking with the group of eight qualified hitters from before, a few of them have made some salient improvements from last year.

What should pop off the screen is the increase in McCutchen’s walk rate, a result of him being pitched like a Most Valuable Player instead of the above-average player many thought him to be before last season. As a result, he is second only to Joey Votto among all N.L. hitters with 21 walks in 26 games so far.

Another encouraging set of numbers comes from Pedro Alvarez, who has cut a seven-percent chunk off his strikeout rate a year ago and improved his walk rate by over four percent. Changes like this should lead to a higher on-base percentage for a power hitter of his caliber.

Of concern, though, is the seven-percent spike in Marte’s strikeout rate. With 37 punchouts already, Marte is pacing toward roughly 230 strikeouts, which would break Mark Reynolds single-season record of 223. E.g., not something any manager wants to see from his leadoff man.

Verdict

Obviously it is still very, very early in the season with nearly 85 percent of games left for the Pirates to play. But from  the first month or so of the season, a couple of conclusions can be drawn.

First of all, it seems like the emphasis on on-base percentage has helped the Pirates become more disciplined at the plate. While the Pirates are seeing less pitch from one plate appearance to another compared to last year, other numbers reflect they’re swinging at more quality pitches.

And, concrete examples such as Marte’s increased walk rate and Alvarez’s improved strikeout rate show the philosophy has at least taken roots with hitters.

One big thing that eventually has to change course for the team is its horrible luck on balls in play. Pittsburgh currently sports a .259 BABIP, far below the league average of .297, while players have posted numbers much worse than their career marks.

At some point, players like Alvarez (.161 BABIP), Ike Davis (.211) and Jordy Mercer (.204) will catch some breaks as their BABIP numbers regress closer to their career lines. In turn, the respective OBPs should rise as well.

At the moment, it’s difficult to say the emphasis on on-base percentage is working out well. The team is scoring less runs per game that it did a year ago. But that doesn’t mean it’s not working below the surface level, and should begin to manifest itself on the field sooner rather than later once the Pirates catch a little luck and their plate discipline begins to pay long-term dividends.

Links and Notes

**Pirates Look to Improve Offense by Emphasizing On-Base Percentage

**Prospect Watch: Tyler Glasnow Walks Seven Batters in Two Innings

**Pittsburgh Pirates Positive Regression Candidates: Pedro Alvarez

**Draft Prospect Watch: Casey Gillaspie or Sean Newcomb?

**Minor Moves: Elvis Escobar Joins West Virginia Outfield

**Prospect Highlights: Andrew Lambo Breaks Homerless Drought

**Minor League Schedule: Rehab Start For Wandy Rodriguez

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