The Rule 5 Contest closed last night and will be decided today when the Pittsburgh Pirates decide which players will be added to the 40-man roster and protected from the draft. After tallying up the predictions, the results broke down in to several tiers. Here are the results of the predictions, broken down by tier.
Tier 1
The first tier showed four guys who I would classify as “must protect” players. I’d be very surprised if any of these players went unprotected.
Rudy Owens – 100%
Starling Marte – 98%
Justin Wilson – 98%
Jordy Mercer – 96%
Tier 2
Out of all of the remaining players, Hague is probably the most difficult to get a read on. His stats say “protect”, although his age, his position (first basemen are the least likely to be drafted and protected), and his lack of power at the position suggest he isn’t at risk of being lost.
Matt Hague – 74%
Tier 3
The next two tiers make sense with all of the players involved being this low. This would start the group of players who might not get protected, but who might be at risk of being selected by another team. The Pirates can’t protect all six, and my own personal tiers would probably have a few changes with one or two of these guys being protected. I think if the Pirates see someone drafted this year, it will come from these six players.
Aaron Pribanic – 36%
Andrew Lambo – 34%
Brett Lorin – 32%
Tier 4
Michael Colla – 19%
Duke Welker – 19%
Diego Moreno – 15%
Tier 5
The final tier is made up of guys that I don’t see as a possibility to be protected, and who probably won’t get picked in the Rule 5 draft.
Tim Alderson – 4%
Quincy Latimore – 4%
Tyler Cox – 2%
Michael Crotta – 2%
Jhonathan Ramos – 2%
Tim Wood – 2%
