Fan Predictions: Rule 5 Protection

Rudy Owens was picked in 100% of fan predictions to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.

The Rule 5 Contest closed last night and will be decided today when the Pittsburgh Pirates decide which players will be added to the 40-man roster and protected from the draft.  After tallying up the predictions, the results broke down in to several tiers.  Here are the results of the predictions, broken down by tier.

Tier 1

The first tier showed four guys who I would classify as “must protect” players.  I’d be very surprised if any of these players went unprotected.

Rudy Owens – 100%

Starling Marte – 98%

Justin Wilson – 98%

Jordy Mercer – 96%

Tier 2

Out of all of the remaining players, Hague is probably the most difficult to get a read on.  His stats say “protect”, although his age, his position (first basemen are the least likely to be drafted and protected), and his lack of power at the position suggest he isn’t at risk of being lost.

Matt Hague – 74%

Tier 3

The next two tiers make sense with all of the players involved being this low.  This would start the group of players who might not get protected, but who might be at risk of being selected by another team.  The Pirates can’t protect all six, and my own personal tiers would probably have a few changes with one or two of these guys being protected.  I think if the Pirates see someone drafted this year, it will come from these six players.

Aaron Pribanic – 36%

Andrew Lambo – 34%

Brett Lorin – 32%

Tier 4

Michael Colla – 19%

Duke Welker – 19%

Diego Moreno – 15%

Tier 5

The final tier is made up of guys that I don’t see as a possibility to be protected, and who probably won’t get picked in the Rule 5 draft.

Tim Alderson – 4%

Quincy Latimore – 4%

Tyler Cox – 2%

Michael Crotta – 2%

Jhonathan Ramos – 2%

Tim Wood – 2%


  • In Tier 3 the only one I really like that could get drafted is Pribanic….i would hate to lose him cause I think he could have a good future as a “Karstens” style pitcher. With the way the game is now you can never have enough pitching depth and guys in that mold are more valuable then they used to be…..

  • Thanks for your recent responses Kevin.

    Why would Colla be sent to AZ if he really has no future? Isn’t it true you send your best (or at least, your not marginal) there to expose them to the other best available?

    • I don’t want to say “no future” in regards to Colla…just not someone to be upset about it if he isn’t around.

      I’m not really a fan of the Arizona Fall League, which is a whole other tirade.  I think fans (not you in particular, Salem) put way too much emphasis on the AFL stats, positive and negative.

      For some players, it is a chance to get innings if they were injured (Inman) or see them for the first time (Cole).  For some players it could just be to get more repetitions or learn a new position in a stress-free environment.

      In recent years, the level of pitching quality has dropped dramatically in the AFL.  A lot of teams, not saying the Pirates, are not sending their top guys anymore because of perceived work loads in the regular minor league season.  It’s really just a hitting exhibition anymore.

  • There’s no way to know, but Welker/Colla being on the 40 wouldn’t be a huge surprise would it?

    • Not a huge surprise, no.
      Welker has a power arm, but for me it is his age (26) and slow progression to date, plus his lack of control.
      Colla is a fungible arm.  Every minor league system has 1-3 “Mike Collas”.  I don’t think he’s anything special that needs protected.  If he is claimed it will be no skin off the system’s nose.  At his best, he is a #5 starter, but really a middle reliever.  There are no “wow” pitches with him.

      But it wouldn’t be a surprise.

  • How could Marte not be 100%?