I was sitting in the Altoona press box tonight with Sean McCool, trying to figure out how to do this breakout article. I had my breakout candidates picked for the lower levels already, but was trying to figure out who would qualify from the upper levels. It’s definitely possible to have a breakout guy in those levels, as we saw with Max Moroff last year. But how do you pick that guy?
Who in Indianapolis could be considered a legit breakout candidate? Do you count guys like Trevor Williams and Steven Brault, and then call it a success if they reach their upsides? That doesn’t seem like a breakout. Do you go with a guy who has seen his prospect stock drop, like Mel Rojas? That’s like throwing darts at a board.
It’s kind of the same situation in Altoona. Is Harold Ramirez a breakout candidate? In terms of the national prospect rankings, yes. In terms of the system, absolutely not. And then other guys have lesser upsides, which means the “breakout” is going to be limited.
I was trying to figure out some upper level picks this year, and couldn’t get past the “breakout” definition. Finally, I turned to Sean and made my pick.
“Whoever hits the first double tonight is my breakout pick from Altoona.”
Unfortunately, no one hit a double. Eric Wood hit a triple, and I decided that counted, although Sean argued that I specifically said “double”. Ultimately, I decided to skip the upper level picks, and focus on the lower levels.
The ironic thing is that Eric Wood is exactly the type of guy who would be a breakout guy in the upper levels. Back when he first entered pro ball, we heard from an AL scout who loved Wood and Max Moroff. Neither player lived up to the expectations from that scout, up until last year when Moroff finally broke out. Wood has shown some power potential, and the Pirates obviously are high on him by giving him continued opportunities. But he hasn’t put it all together yet.
The problem with picking someone like Wood is that it’s a low probability pick. The upper minors are filled with guys who were once loved by scouts, and keep getting chances, but ultimately never make it and wash out in Double-A. The success story with Moroff is the exception, and not the rule. This isn’t to say that Wood won’t make it. It’s just saying I wouldn’t pick him, because even though I still like the power potential, he’s to the point in his career where he needs to show more results than potential.
It’s much easier picking breakouts in the lower levels, because you’re still dealing more with potential that has largely been untapped, and which could still realistically be achieved. If I was picking breakouts from Altoona, I’d go with Wyatt Mathisen and Tyler Eppler. I also look forward to the end of the year when Sean’s technicality costs me the big breakout call of Eric Wood.
As for the lower levels, I went with two pitchers and two hitters from each team.
BRADENTON
This team was difficult, just because most of the top pitchers either already broke out, or don’t have a big upside where you’d want to call them a potential breakout guy. The hitters are also difficult, since the Pirates’ drafting approach in recent years doesn’t lead to a lot of upside like you’d get from Polanco. I think guys like Yeudy Garcia and Kevin Newman are breakout candidates for the national scene, but I wanted to focus primarily on the system.
Pitchers: Brandon Waddell and Stephen Tarpley
Last year I picked four left-handers for my breakout candidates in the lower levels. Maybe it’s because I’m left-handed as well, but I went with two more in Bradenton this year. Last year’s group saw Steven Brault and Stephen Tarpley getting picked. I’m kind of taking the same route this year.
It seems like a stretch to pick Tarpley again, since he showed a lot last year. However, I think there’s still more. He’s a guy who throws 90-94 MPH, touching 97. He also has a good changeup, which he uses as his primary off-speed pitch. He needs to add a good out pitch, and if that happens, we could see him propelled to the top of the system, mentioned as a guy you’d want in a future Dream Rotation™, especially as a left-hander with his stuff. This is more of a breakout pick where a guy outside of the top ten could jump to the top of the pitching charts, and maybe even into the national scene.
Waddell is almost exactly like Brault. He doesn’t have great stuff, but has success due to his ability to pitch and mix all of his offerings. He can hit 92-93 MPH with his fastball, but looks like he could be more effective pitching to contact with his upper 80s sinker. There’s not going to be a lot of upside here, in the sense that Waddell won’t be a top of the rotation pitcher. But he could be a strong number four starter in the majors, and maybe a middle of the rotation guy in a best case scenario, which is pretty good for a fifth round pick.
Hitters: Connor Joe and Kevin Kramer
Connor Joe has had a pretty rough start to his pro career. He immediately went down with a back injury, causing him to miss all of the 2014 season, and limiting him in 2015. Watching him last year, you could see the tools — good plate patience, the ability to turn quickly on an inside pitch, a smooth swing and a quick bat through the zone, and a lot of raw power potential. He didn’t look overmatched at all, whether that was live reports or the K/BB numbers. But the stats weren’t there. I could see those numbers arriving this year in Bradenton, now that he’s having a normal season. Unlike a lot of other hitters at this level, he could also hit for some power. He’s also going to get the primary workload at third base, which is a move I like, as he shows good first step quickness, and good agility at the corners. He looked like a third baseman at first base last year, so it only makes sense to put him in the more valuable position.
Kevin Kramer is a guy who I’ve had maxed out as a future utility infielder ever since he was drafted. That changed during Spring Training. Every time I saw him hitting, he was crushing the ball. It seemed like he hit a double off the wall at least once per game. He’s not going to be a guy with a lot of home run power, but he seems like he’ll make a lot of contact, with some line drive power, enough speed to add value, and a good ability to play strong defense at second base. At this point, I’m erasing the utility upside, and giving him a chance to be a starter, simply because I think he can hit enough to get in that position.
WEST VIRGINIA
This is the team that has seen all of the breakouts in the past. Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Tyler Glasnow, Yeudy Garcia, and even smaller cases like JaCoby Jones first made it big on the prospect charts with West Virginia. They don’t have as much high upside this year as previous years, especially on the pitching side, but they could still have a breakout guy. I will note that I’m not including Mitch Keller or Ke’Bryan Hayes here. I expect big things from both, but they’re already top prospects for us, and it feels like cheating to include them here. I think both of them could end up in national rankings by the end of the year, and possibly in our top five, challenging for a top spot in a few years.
Pitchers: Dario Agrazal and JT Brubaker
The pitching doesn’t have a high upside guy, but has a few good throwers. JT Brubaker made his season debut tonight, and had a good appearance. I really liked what I saw from him last year in Morgantown. He was 90-93 MPH, touching 94, but most importantly, he has a strong feel for a changeup, working mostly a fastball/changeup combo. You might notice a trend here after reading Tarpley’s writeup. I love when a hard thrower has already learned the changeup, and is comfortable enough with the pitch that he uses it as his second best offering (this is also why Tyler Eppler would be my pick in Altoona). Brubaker has a good feel for a slider, and if that develops, he’ll have a nice three pitch mix, along with a curveball that can be used as a situational offering. He’s also got a tall, projectable frame, so there’s a chance the velocity could increase in the future, making him more dangerous.
Dario Agrazal is a guy who has benefitted from a velocity increase. I liked what I saw from him in the GCL two years ago, as he threw a good sinker that was constantly down in the zone, getting a lot of ground outs. The pitch was only 87-90 MPH at the time, and that didn’t project well for his future as a starting prospect. He has since improved the velocity, sitting at 92-93 now, along with a low 80s curve that has hard, late bite. The Pirates love their sinkerball guys, and Agrazal’s sinker was a good one without the velocity. It will be interesting to see how it fares this year with a few more MPH.
Hitters: Tito Polo and Casey Hughston
Last year, Tito Polo was my big breakout candidate, with the following writeup:
I don’t want to say that anyone has the chance for a Gregory Polanco style breakout, because that would be an unfair expectation. I will say that Tito Polo definitely has a small chance to get there. I love the hitting tools that Polo brings to the plate. He’s got a line drive stroke with quick bat speed, and he drives the ball to all fields. He’s a smaller outfielder, so he might not have the potential to grow and hit for a lot of home run power in the future, but he should get plenty of extra bases to make up for that, especially with his speed. He’s got the potential to have the best bat at the level this year, which is saying a lot, since there’s a lot of potential on the offensive side. If I had to pick just one guy from the lower levels to have a breakout season, it would be Polo.
There’s not much I’d change from that recap this time around. The skills are still there, and Polo is still young enough to be a sleeper/breakout guy, even if he is repeating the level. He was hitting the ball well all spring, and showing off his speed on the bases and in the field. He also got off to a great start tonight, which is a positive sign. I’m doubling down on last year’s prediction and going with Polo again as the top breakout guy in West Virginia. It would be between him and Joe for the top breakout hitter in the lower levels.
Casey Hughston is a high risk/high reward pick. He’s a big framed outfielder who has a lot of speed for his size. He’s got a lot of raw power potential, and currently does a great job crushing inside pitches and pulling the ball for power. His main drawback is that he is slow on outside pitches, and doesn’t do a good job of hitting to the opposite field. The Pirates stress that ability with all of their hitters, and started working with Hughston on that approach on day one. The results weren’t encouraging in Spring Training, but if he can ever fix that issue and simply learn to make contact on the outer half (not even focusing on power), then he could solve all of his strikeout problems and become a hitter with a very high upside.
**Prospect Watch: Tito Polo and Jordan Luplow Have Big Opening Nights. The first Prospect Watch of the year. If you weren’t around last year, we changed the format to allow for full box scores and stats for the top 30, along with the new top performers section. The stats update live throughout the games (refresh required), so you can keep the article open all evening and follow the progress of the system from one spot.
**We uploaded our season previews today, with top 10 prospects for each level, along with a few bonus reports that brought the total up to 62 players profiled. Check out the reports for each team below, and if you haven’t subscribed, you should do that now, so you don’t miss any of our reports. Honestly, even if you go for just a month, the four articles below and their 10,000+ words of prospect analysis are worth way more than the $2.99 you will pay.
- 2016 Indianapolis Indians Season Preview and Top 10 Prospects
- 2016 Altoona Curve Season Preview and Top 10 Prospects
- 2016 Bradenton Marauders Season Preview and Top 10 Prospects
- 2016 West Virginia Power Season Preview and Top 10 Prospects
