Matt Swartz at MLBTR has been producing some very accurate arbitration estimates over the last two seasons. His estimates for the Pittsburgh Pirates just came out recently, in an off-season preview that was written by Charlie at Bucs Dugout. Below are the MLBTR arbitration estimates:
- Garrett Jones, OF (4.158): $5.3MM (non-tender candidate)
- Neil Walker, 2B (3.166): $4.8MM
- Pedro Alvarez, 3B (3.085): $4MM
- Charlie Morton, SP (5.010): $3.9MM
- Mark Melancon, RP (3.098): $3MM
- Gaby Sanchez, 1B (4.025): $2.3MM
- Travis Snider, OF (3.091): $1.4MM (non-tender candidate)
- Michael McKenry, C (2.136): $900K (non-tender candidate)
- Vin Mazzaro, RP (3.021): $800K
- Felix Pie, OF (4.028): $500K (non-tender candidate)
The non-tender notes are MLBTR projections (which I’m assuming are Charlie’s projections). I agree with most of them, with the exception of Michael McKenry. He’s got an option remaining, and the Pirates would have to spend that much on a third catcher with his type of experience in the majors. I could see them keeping McKenry and sending him to Triple-A. I could also see Vin Mazzaro traded to make room for Stolmy Pimentel in the bullpen, although that doesn’t really make him a non-tender candidate.
Gaby Sanchez would also be up in the air, depending on what they do at first base. In my original projections I had him as a non-tender/trade candidate. However, there aren’t many full time starting first base options, as Charlie pointed out in the article, making it possible that Sanchez could be involved in another platoon next year.
Here is a look back at how accurate the projections have been in previous years (or if you skip over this, know that they’ve been very accurate).
2012
Player (Projection/Actual)
Joel Hanrahan ($4.0/$4.1)
Casey McGehee ($3.1/$2.5375)
Jeff Karstens ($2.8/$3.1)
Garrett Jones ($2.4/$2.25)
Ross Ohlendorf ($2.1/Non-Tendered)
Charlie Morton ($2.1/$2.445)
Jose Veras ($2.5/$2.0 with Milwaukee)
Chris Resop ($1.1/$0.85)
Evan Meek ($0.9/$0.875)
Jason Grilli ($0.8/$1.1)
2013
Player (Projection/Actual)
Joel Hanrahan ($6.9/$7.04)
Jeff Karstens ($3.8/Non-Tendered)
Garrett Jones ($4.4/$4.5)
Charlie Morton ($2.6/$2.0)
Chris Resop ($1.3/$1.35)
James McDonald ($3.0/$3.025)
Neil Walker ($2.9/$3.3)
Gaby Sanchez ($1.8/$1.75)
The 2014 payroll projection has been updated with the new figures. The estimated payroll was $60,843,000 prior to this. The new estimate is $63,443,000. One key difference between the two is that the new estimate now has Gaby Sanchez getting tendered a contract.
