Spring is in the air
It does not matter how cold it is in western Pennsylvania, it starts to feel warmer and sunnier as soon as spring training begins. Pitchers and catchers report to Bradenton today, and the first workout is scheduled for tomorrow at noon. It is time to get flooded with irrational optimism. It is time to feel good when walking outside into the 25-degree Pittsburgh air. It is time for baseball.
One thing that caught my eye was this excerpt from today’s Post-Gazette:
Second baseman Freddy Sanchez, hampered by a wonky shoulder and subpar vision most of last year, remains uncertain about both, though guardedly optimistic.
There are many folks, myself included, that expect Sanchez to bounce back near his 2007 numbers this season. Freddy’s BABIP was a little lower than expected last year, indicating some improvement may be likely due to regression. He also played most, if not all, of the season with an injured shoulder. Being healthy in 2009 should greatly improve his production. But the statement above leaves me skeptical that he will be. He has had an entire off-season to rest his shoulder, and he is still unsure of its condition. Something tells me that we may have seen the last of a healthy, productive Freddy Sanchez. Now 31, injuries have been a major issue in his career. I will be keeping a close eye on this during spring training, desperate for some encouraging signs.
Pirates do not need to sign a mediocre free agent pitcher
Many have advocated that the Pirates add a veteran starting pitcher this offseason. One name that has popped up quite a bit is Braden Looper, so I will use him as an example of the typical middle of the road free agent starter. He seemed like a good player to use, even though he is in the process of signing with the Brewers. Below is a comparison of Looper to the current Pirate starters, using tRA*. I am also including expected 2009 salary for each player.
Here is a tRA primer. tRA* is a regressed version of tRA. It has more predictive value than basic tRA.
| Name | tRA* | Estimated Salary |
| Braden Looper | 4.87 | $5 million |
| Paul Maholm | 4.33 | $3.5 million |
| Jeff Karstens | 4.76 | minimum |
| Zach Duke | 4.85 | $2.2 million |
| Ross Ohlendorf | 4.91 | minimum |
| Ian Snell | 5.58 | $3 million |
| Tom Gorzelanny | 5.97 | minimum |
| Daniel McCutchen + | 4.76 | minimum |
| Jimmy Barthmaier + | 4.34 | minimum |
+ The numbers for McCutchen and Barthmaier are from Indianapolis. The other pitchers’ stats are while with the Pirates. There is a sample size issue with many of these numbers, but it is a rudimentary way to compare the pitchers to Looper.
As you can see, Looper is probably middle of the pack in performance. He would easily be the oldest, as well as the highest paid. We are not expecting to contend this year, so why do we want a stopgap veteran starter that is unlikely to be any better than the other eight pitchers already on the roster? He would just be in the way, in my opinion. I would much rather learn whether players like Ohlendorf, Karstens, Snell, and Gorzelanny have what it takes to start in the major leagues.
One phrase that is greatly overvalued is “established major leaguer.” I would prefer that the Pirates scour the waiver wire for young, undervalued minor league starters with some upside. That would provide some additional depth, in case the catastrophe of 2008 occurs again. Focus on the Phil Dumatraits of the world, not the Braden Loopers.
Radar Tracking
To be honest, I had no idea that it had been several days since I last posted something. I guess that’s what happens when the Steelers are busy winning the Super Bowl. It’s easy to stop paying attention to the rest of the world.
I just wanted to give a quick plug for Heater Magazine today. Heater is an online magazine that provides a fantastic array of statistics in every issue. It is an ideal resource for those of you who play fantasy baseball. Heater is currently running a project entitled Radar Tracking. This feature is a projection of individual playing time for the upcoming season. I am contributing the Pirates section of Radar Tracking, which will be updated weekly for the next two months.
As a reader of Pittsburgh Lumber Co., you are entitled to $5 off the annual subscription price of Heater Magazine. Just follow this link to claim your discount. Below is a free preview of the NL Central section of the first edition of Radar Tracking. You can also download a free sample issue at the main Heater Magazine page.
