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Morning Report: Three Up, Three Down for the Indianapolis Indians

Morning Report

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Reading time: 10 min.

In yesterday’s Morning Report, we took a look at what has gone right and wrong for the Altoona Curve through the first two months of the season. On Thursday it was a look at the Bradenton Marauders, which followed a look at the Greensboro Grasshoppers on Wednesday morning, highlighting the same things. Today we move up to the Indianapolis Indians.

The idea here is to first look at players who are exceeding expectations, then follow it with players who aren’t living up to expectations going into the season. The “down” players could be due to injury, performance or just not getting regular playing time. In the past when we did this, including Wednesday’s article, that could also include pitchers working out of the bullpen instead of the starting rotation.

THREE UP

  1. I’ll start by saying that this was a really difficult team to do compared to the others because they have had so many changes throughout the season already that potential “up” players have actually been moved up. In the case of Cole Tucker and Bryan Reynolds, it was before they even settled in at Triple-A. The top spot here goes to Dario Agrazal, who has been their best starting pitcher, after beginning the season in Double-A and spending the previous two years dealing with three significant injuries. After what he’s been through the last two years, and two very poor starts to begin the 2019 season in Altoona, his success has been somewhat unexpected, especially since he flashed better stuff in 2016-17.
  2. Will Craig is taking advantage of the juiced baseballs in the International League with his 15 homers and a .565 slugging percentage through play on Friday. The thing that lands him here is the combo of power and on base percentage. In 2017 at Bradenton, Craig got on base often, but didn’t show power. In 2018 at Altoona, he hit for power, but the OBP dropped 52 points. This year we are seeing both areas of his game at the same time….oh, and he played right field last night, so that’s something new.
  3. It’s a small sample size, but Luis Escobar has been really successful while moving back to the rotation. He has three quality pitches, but the problem has been the ability to throw those pitches for strikes consistently. In Low-A (and lower) and even High-A to some extent, he got a lot of chases on pitches well out of the zone. That wasn’t happening as much in Altoona last year and Indianapolis this year, which could be a problem if you want him to go deep into starts. His changeup might be the best in the system, and his curve is a swing-and-miss pitch, while also throwing a mid-90s fastball. He just needs to control those pitches better and he’s a Major League starter.

THREE DOWN

  1. Eduardo Vera is the top player down for me, but I may have been wrong on the reasoning in previous times I’ve mentioned his struggles. Vera is a control pitcher, who was sitting 92-94 MPH last year and a tick higher in 2017. I’ve noticed he isn’t throwing quality strikes this year, doesn’t have the velocity (I’ve seen 93 once) and he isn’t using his changeup often, which has been his best pitch in the past. Those all seem like reason enough for someone to struggle while making a jump to a higher level. The real problem here may have started last year when he pitched winter ball after throwing 155 regular season innings and then a playoff start. He also began his off-season training earlier to come into Spring Training trying to impress on the Major League side. I’m sure it doesn’t help that he’s a fly ball pitcher throwing juiced baseballs this year, but I now think the real problem is that he just pitched too much last year and almost took no break this off-season. Vera made an adjustment in his delivery since his last start, and the side throwing results were positive, so we will see if that helps.
  2. Brandon Waddell qualifies here as a double disappointment. One is that he isn’t starting still, but the second is that he isn’t flourishing in relief. Waddell has always been known as a big game pitcher. He has a long track record of coming up big when the pressure is on. That made people (including myself) that if he didn’t make it as a starter, he would be great for relief, especially in tough situations. That could still be true, it’s extremely early in the change, but he has a 7.13 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in 24 innings. One thing we have seen on a positive note is an uptick in velocity. Waddell has been known as someone who could hit 94 MPH, but you rarely saw it in starts. I’ve seen him sit 93-94 and even hit 95 MPH this season, which is excellent coming from a lefty, especially one with four pitches.
  3.  JT Brubaker gets the third spot and it’s not for his early season performance. He was the top pitcher for Indianapolis in April, but he’s been out for a month now due to an elbow injury. He’s currently rehabbing to get back, but Brubaker would have been getting Major League starts during this time, especially when the Pirates were calling up lesser pitchers and using “the opener”. You don’t need to tell any Pirates fans that injuries are going to happen, they have certainly learned that this year. This injury to Brubaker however, was one of the worst timed injuries for a minor leaguer that you’ll see. By the time he’s back to full strength, there might not be a rotation need/spot for him.

PLAYOFF PUSH

Altoona is in fourth place in their division, 8.5 games back with 17 games remaining in the first half.

Bradenton is in third place in their division, 1.5 games back with 15 games remaining in the first half.

Greensboro is in second place in their division, six games back with 16 games remaining in the schedule.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 12-10 to the Milwaukee Brewers in 13 innings on Saturday night. The Pirates are sending out Jordan Lyles for the finale of the four-game series. He left his last start early due to left hamstring discomfort, though his pitch count was already high after giving up three runs over four innings against the Cincinnati Reds. Lyles had a 3.68 ERA in five May starts. The Brewers will counter with 26-year-old right-handed pitcher Zach Davies, who has a 2.19 ERA in 61.2 innings, with 42 strikeouts and a 1.23 WHIP. He threw six shutout innings in his last start, after giving up six runs over three innings in his previous outing. Davies has not allowed more than two runs in any of his other ten starts.

The minor league schedule includes Mitch Keller slated to go for Indianapolis, making his first start since his big league debut back on Monday. He allowed six runs in the first inning that day, then retired ten of the last 11 batters he faced to get through four innings. Altoona will send out Domingo Robles, who is making his second start in Double-A. He went five innings in his Curve debut, allowing two earned runs, with one walk and six strikeouts. He led all Pirates pitchers with 37 innings pitched in May.

Bradenton’s Max Kranick gave up four runs over seven innings in his last start. That followed one-hit ball over seven innings in his previous outing. Greensboro sends out Alex Manasa, who tossed seven shutout innings in his last start. This will be his 11th start overall, but just the fourth one at home. The Dominican Summer League has off today after beginning their season yesterday. The teams are always off on Sunday. You can see the season preview here.

The full 2019 Pirates Prospects Prospect Guide is now available, up to date as of April 3rd, with every player in the minor league system (NOTE: There have been just three players released and two added since then, so the book is still 99% up to date). Includes full reports on the top 50 prospects, reports on over 150 other players, as well as looks back at the recent drafts and international signing classes. Subscribers get 20% off the purchase of a book.

MLB: Pittsburgh (28-29) vs Brewers (33-26) 1:35 PM
Probable starter: Jordan Lyles (3.09 ERA, 56:19 SO/BB, 55.1 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (31-21) vs Gwinnett (32-23) 1:35 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Mitch Keller (3.60 ERA, 5:5 SO/BB, 5.0 IP)

AA: Altoona (24-28) vs New Hampshire (24-29) 2:00 PM  (season preview)
Probable starter: Domingo Robles (3.60 ERA, 6:1 SO/BB, 5.0 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (31-23) vs Tampa (23-31) 1:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Max Kranick (4.84 ERA, 40:15 SO/BB, 48.1 IP)

Low-A: Greensboro (36-18) vs Lakewood (18-36) 2:00 PM  (season preview)
Probable starter: Alex Manasa (3.22 ERA, 53:11 SO/BB, 58.2 IP)

DSL: Pirates1 (1-0) vs Dodgers Shoemaker 10:30 AM 6/3 (season preview)

DSL: Pirates2 (1-0) vs Royals2 10:30 AM 6/3 (season preview)

HIGHLIGHTS

From Altoona on Friday, Hunter Owen hits his 11th home run

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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