Prior to last season, the Pirates had a big question mark at catcher. They were about to see Russell Martin walk as a free agent, and the ended up replacing him with Francisco Cervelli. Martin came in as a strong defender with a questionable bat, although he had the hitting tools to be successful. Cervelli took over with the same type of situation, showing off strong defense, but having questions with his bat. Both players also had injury concerns in their past.
Obviously, Cervelli has worked out just as well as Martin did. It looked like we were heading for a repeat of the 2014-15 off-season, with Cervelli set to become a free agent, and Elias Diaz in line to take over. Diaz also has strong defense, a questionable bat, the tools to be a good hitter, and now, injury concerns. But after today’s extension of Cervelli, the Pirates will no longer be taking that risk next year.
The Pirates are in an interesting situation now with their team. They’ve got a great lineup, and a great farm system. After the prospects come up this year, they should have a great rotation to go with that. And all of their key MLB players are under control for several years, with prospects ready to take over at every spot before the current guys are ready to leave. That means they can rely on prospects for the future, but they won’t be forced to rely on prospects at a specific time, before the prospect might be ready.
That’s a great position for the Pirates to be in. Here are the other big fallouts from today’s extension.
What Does Francisco Cervelli Need to Do to Justify His Deal?
Francisco Cervelli will be making an average of $10 M per year in what is essentially an early free agent deal. That’s huge value when you consider that free agents are worth about $7 M per WAR, and Cervelli should be expected to put up more than 1.5 WAR per year over the next three years.
I broke down his offense earlier today, including what has worked for him the last two years with the Pirates to lead to his high average and high OBP. But the value needed to justify his deal might come from his defense alone.
Last year, Cervelli was worth 16 runs above average for his pitch framing. That right there is the win and a half that you need each year to justify the deal. This doesn’t even factor in the rest of his defense, his work with the pitching staff, his “That’s Amore” videos at PNC Park, and any offensive value he brings. Simply put, this deal is a bit of a bargain for the Pirates, illustrated in this tweet this afternoon:
Francisco Cervelli's 2017-19 rational market value, including framing: $57.0m. Without framing value (which teams barely pay for): $40.2m.
— NEIFI Analytics (@NEIFIco) May 17, 2016
I posted the framing numbers above, but it’s true that we’re still at the point where teams aren’t paying for this value. That’s part of the reason why the Pirates originally got two years of Cervelli for Justin Wilson. But let’s look at this another way. Let’s take a guess at what Cervelli might have been worth in the upcoming (horrible) free agent class. And let’s do it by comparing him to Russell Martin.
Cervelli has a .291/.373/.384 line, a .337 wOBA, and a 115 wRC+ in his time with the Pirates.
Martin had a .262/.362/.401 line, a .341 wOBA, and a 121 wRC+ in his time with the Pirates.
Martin barely edged out Cervelli on offense, getting there with more power, while Cervelli got there with more OBP. Defensively, Martin has the superior arm, Cervelli has the edge in pitch framing, and overall defense benefits Martin slightly. Martin had a 4.1 WAR in his first year, and a 5.0 WAR his second year. Cervelli was at 3.8 his first year, and is on pace for a WAR around 4.0 this season.
I think it’s fair to say that Martin should have received more money than Cervelli. But Martin received $82 M guaranteed over five years. That’s two extra years, and $51 M guaranteed. Looking at the numbers above, there is no way that Martin is worth that much more than Cervelli (who would have been a year younger than Martin in his free agent year).
The Pirates got a value with Cervelli, getting a below-market price before he entered the free agent market, and not having to commit as many years to a catcher over the age of 30. Overall, it’s a fantastic deal, and one that Cervelli should easily be able to justify.
What Happens With Elias Diaz?
Almost immediately after the extension, people started questioning the future of Elias Diaz with the Pirates. I got several messages wondering if he could now be traded, which doesn’t make much sense for the current season. By the time the trade deadline rolls around, Diaz will hardly have a chance to prove his health, and show that his value should be high. So dealing him now would be essentially trading him just to trade him, with his value being at a low point.
That doesn’t mean the Pirates should trade him at all. They have been very fortunate with their health behind the plate the last few years, especially with guys like Martin and Cervelli, who had injury histories. The idea that they will go without any injuries for the next three years is totally forgetting how bad things can get at the catching position (anyone remember the 2011 season?).
The Pirates are in a fortunate situation here. They now have plenty of time for Diaz and Reese McGuire to develop. Diaz is further along than McGuire, and makes a very strong depth option the next few years. They can take their time with McGuire, slowing down his aggressive promotion to allow the bat to catch up to the defense.
This is another situation where the Pirates have a starter under control for a few years, and have at least one prospect ready to take over before those years of control expire. This is the case at every position, and after this year, the rotation will be in the same boat. So really, what are you going to get by trading Diaz? The pitching will be solved internally, and after that, the team doesn’t really have any needs the next few years. They’d be much better off keeping Diaz as depth, and making sure that they’ve got a good replacement if Cervelli does get injured.
And if they don’t need Diaz the next few years, that means the Cervelli extension would have ended up great.
**Pirates Announce Three-Year Extension for Francisco Cervelli. The story on Cervelli’s extension, with my thoughts on his value and the deal.
**Prospect Watch: Glasnow Posted Good Numbers, But Didn’t Have Good Stuff. Live report from Indianapolis today, with an important subject that came up. That would be the separation between Triple-A and the big leagues. Tyler Glasnow gave up one run in six innings, but Dean Treanor and Glasnow both said after the outing that he didn’t have good stuff today. And watching him, it wasn’t his best outing. You can get away with having poor stuff in Triple-A. It won’t work in the big leagues. There’s a reason I’ve been saying over and over that Jameson Taillon is ahead of Glasnow. At this point, I might even say that Chad Kuhl is ahead of Glasnow. I love the upside with Glasnow in the long-term, but in the short-term, I don’t think he’s ready, and I don’t think the passing of the Super Two deadline will change that.
**Giles: Are the Pirates out of the NL Central Race? Ed Giles looks at the playoff projections, which are all but making the Cubs a lock to wrap up the NL Central race. At this point, the Pirates would need one of their best finishes in franchise history to match the projected win total for the Cubs.
**Morning Report: The Differences in Pitching Between the GCL and DSL. Not as notable as the jump from Triple-A to MLB, but John Dreker looks at the difficulties for DSL hitters when making the jump to the US.
