This week saw the return of prospects rankings to Pirates Prospects. That was once a core feature of this site, which has been removed for two years.
Over the years, I gradually moved to a tiered ranking system, aiming to display the depth of system talent. The site hasn’t had rankings since the start of the 2022 season, as I’ve thought about the best way to present the information, other than a numbered list. Eventually, there will be a ranking page that shows what is in my mind when envisioning the collection of system talent.
In this week’s First Pitch, I wanted to expand upon the rankings by breaking down the entire system into tiers. The goal with this look is to see who the Pittsburgh Pirates have at each talent level, now and in future projections. The talent tiers will be broken down according to the 20-80 scouting scale. For this purpose, I’ll only be using 35-60+, with Current and Future Values both represented.
Prospect rankings typically work off a Future Value system, which is really a dream of a projection for any player. My rankings are working off a Current Value system, while incorporating the Future Value and a player’s likely progression over the next three seasons. As such, I have a projection of how the system will look heading into the 2027 season.
The breakdown below shows not only what the Pirates have in the majors, but it shows what they could have in the future, whether from improvements on the 26-man roster, or via the prospects in the system. It’s with this look that you see the window starts to open in the next few years, even in the prospect game of attrition.
60+: Best in the Game
Current: None
Potential in 2024: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
Future Potential: Oneil Cruz, Paul Skenes (by 2026)
The Pirates don’t have any players who could be considered among the best in the game at their positions. These players are rare, typically putting up 4-6+ WAR seasons. While there are none of those performers in Pittsburgh, there are potentials in both the majors and the minors.
Bryan Reynolds has already performed at this level for one season, only to follow it with two years at average-to-above average production. Reynolds can get back to this level with one simple method: Hitting. He’s off to a good start in 2024, making hard contact at the plate, picking up hits on great swing decisions in clutch moments, and also adding some value in the outfield with his newly developed arm strength.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is a Gold Glove defender at third base, and it would only take him hitting for added power to propel him to one of the best in the game. Right now, I would classify Hayes as the best Current Value player in the organization, as a solid above-average player at third base.
Oneil Cruz has the raw power and five-tool ability that you dream upon. I think it’s a lot to ask for him to be one of the best in the game in his first full season, but that is still his upside in future seasons.
Paul Skenes is the only prospect in the minors who could grade as one of the best in the game during the specified time frame. I’m not projecting him to arrive in the majors as the best, or to do it in his first full season. That would put 2026 as the conservative estimate.
There is only one other prospect who I gave a 60+ Future Value grade, and that is Termarr Johnson. In this article, I have him grading out as a 55 by the 2027 season. You could also get very optimistic about Jared Jones and his upside, but until he gains more than two plus pitches, I have his ceiling in the 55 tier.
55: Above-Average MLB Starters/Elite Relievers
Current: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller, David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman
Potential in 2024: Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Dauri Moreta
Future Potential: Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Jared Triolo, Jared Jones, Dauri Moreta, Liover Peguero (2026), Quinn Priester (2026), Termarr Johnson (2027), Bubba Chandler (2027), Anthony Solometo (2027)
The current above-average guys represent the core of the team. The Pirates have extended Hayes, Reynolds, and Keller. They have the best reliever combo in the game in David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman.
The Pirates have a lot of potential above-average players. In the majors, Oneil Cruz and Henry Davis have the best chances of becoming a 60+ player, if they can perform well at their premium positions. Cruz has the best chance of the two of having an above-average season in 2024.
Jared Jones is another guy who could go higher than above-average grades. I think Jack Suwinski and Johan Oviedo each have a chance to be sleeper above-average guys. Endy Rodriguez and Jared Triolo are two strong defenders who could eventually hit enough to become above-average starters. Dauri Moreta is a guy who I like as having a chance to be one of the best relievers in the game, along the lines of Bednar. I might lower him after his injury, but this is where I saw him prior to him going down.
In the minors, I still like the upside of Liover Peguero and Quinn Priester, but this will be a big development year for each. They could both return to the majors this year, but each will need to show they can stick at the level as starters, in order to allow for further development at the big league level.
Termarr Johnson has one of the highest upsides in the system, projecting as a 60 Future Value prospect. I don’t think he gets there before 2027. That will be his age 22-23 season, and expecting him to be one of the best in the game at that age is a high bar. Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo are two of the top five prospects in the system, and could be above-average quality starters in the rotation by 2027. They might be joining Skenes, Jones, and Keller.
Obviously not all of these players will end up as above-average starters in the majors. They all should end up as starters, or at the least, 45+ grade MLB players.
50: Average MLB Starters/Above-Average Relievers
Current: Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Johan Oviedo, Martin Perez, Andrew McCutchen, Michael A. Taylor, Ryan Borucki
Potential in 2024: Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski
Future Potential: Nick Gonzales (2025), Braxton Ashcraft (2026), Mike Burrows (2026), Tsung-Che Cheng (2027), Thomas Harrington (2027), J.P. Massey (2027), Lonnie White Jr. (2027)
The player from the current group who has the best chance of excelling is Oneil Cruz. Placing him in the average starter range implies a 2-3 WAR season from a player who has yet to play a full season. I think Cruz is at that level from a talent standpoint, and could show that he’s above that level in his first full season.
Jack Suwinski is an average starter at the least, even with platoon concerns. I think he could improve his ranking if he gets platooned more while improving against left-handed pitching. Johan Oviedo was quietly a quality starter last year, with a lot of swing and miss. His loss from Tommy John hurts the Pirates this year, but he could return strong for future rotations. Ryan Borucki is a guy who I didn’t think much of last year, but he’s grown on me as one of the best relievers on the Pirates, and maybe in baseball one day, similar to Tony Watson as an elite lefty reliever.
Martin Perez, Andrew McCutchen, and Michael A. Taylor are all veteran players who are expected for average results at this point in their career. Each one could improve beyond the 2-3 WAR range in a single season, with McCutchen being lower as a DH. Perez and Taylor are off to hot starts this year, and McCutchen is slowly heating up.
The best players in the potential group are Braxton Ashcraft, Tsung-Che Cheng, and Thomas Harrington. Ashcraft and Harrington could be back of the rotation starters on a contender, and Ashcraft could be an elite power reliever. Cheng is a solid shortstop who has some of the best hitting skills in the system. All three are top ten prospects in the system.
Mike Burrows and Nick Gonzales have seen their values decline a bit, and are on the verge of being labeled with 45 Future Value. This will be a big year for both to maintain the hope of starting upsides. In the case of Burrows, it requires returning from Tommy John as the same pitcher from before he went under the knife. Gonzales needs to improve on his swing and miss against breaking pitches. He’s off to an encouraging start at the plate in Triple-A.
J.P. Massey and Lonnie White Jr. are two long-term options to start. Massey is slightly below Harrington as a potential back of the rotation starter. I have White as a 55 FV player in 2028 or beyond, but I think he could reach MLB starting status by 2027.
45: Fringe MLB Starters/Utility Players/Average Relievers
Current: Henry Davis, Jared Triolo, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta, Luis Ortiz, Connor Joe, Endy Rodriguez, Jared Jones, Marco Gonzales, Yasmani Grandal, Rowdy Tellez, Edward Olivares, Eric Lauer, Domingo German, Bailey Falter
Potential in 2024: Ji Hwan Bae, Roansy Contreras, Jose Hernandez, Jason Delay, Hunter Stratton, Joey Bart
Future Potential: Jase Bowen (2027), Tres Gonzales (2027), Po-Yu Chen (2027), Sean Sullivan (2027), Brandan Bidios (2027), Jack Brannigan (2027), Mitch Jebb (2027)
The current group will be the make or break of the 2024 Pirates season.
The highlights of this group are Henry Davis, Jared Triolo, and Jared Jones. All three could quickly propel to a current 50 grade, with the chance to end up above-average starters in the future. If the Pirates get that average-level, 2-3 WAR production from each player, it will be huge for their 2024 results. If Endy Rodriguez wasn’t injured, he’d be in this group. Instead, he’ll look to show what he can do next year.
There were a few outside additions brought in who are on that fringe-starter level at this stage in their careers. Yasmani Grandal, Marco Gonzales, Rowdy Tellez, Edward Olivares, Eric Lauer, and Domingo German all have individual arguments that could be made for 2+ WAR production in a single season. Again, if the Pirates get enough of these guys to step up from this 45-grade tier, they’ll be in good shape.
Bailey Falter will have some competition from members in that above group. He’s shown to be either lights out or a complete disaster, and will need to maintain the frequency of lights out starts to maintain his current value and progress forward.
Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Luis Ortiz, and Connor Joe represent the contending-level bench and bullpen depth that gives this team hope. The relievers help give the Pirates what looks like it will be one of the best and deepest bullpens in the game. Joe is a guy who could start for a non-contending team, and will do well against lefties this year.
From the potential group, Ji Hwan Bae has the chance to match Joe in terms of production off the bench. Roansy Contreras, Jose Hernandez, and Hunter Stratton are the top three relievers who could progress to a 1.0 WAR reliever performance level. I like Jason Delay as a guy who could emerge as one of the best backup catchers in the game. I also think the potential of Joey Bart is still there, making him an interesting upside guy.
Altoona has some guys to watch for potential fringe-starters in the future. Jase Bowen and Tres Gonzales stand out from the outfield. Po-Yu Chen and Sean Sullivan are pitchers who could be long-men in the bullpen. Brandan Bidios is a hard throwing reliever who could be a solid late inning option one day.
Jack Brannigan and Mitch Jebb are guys who I think could emerge as average starters one day. I’ve got them in this 45 group by 2027, as they’re currently in A-ball, and will need development time in the minors and majors. Brannigan would have the best chance of exceeding this timeline if he improves his swing and miss.
40: Replacement Level Players
Current: Roansy Contreras, Josh Fleming, Jose Hernandez, Quinn Priester, Ryder Ryan, Hunter Stratton, Joey Bart, Jason Delay, Ji Hwan Bae, Alika Williams, Paul Skenes
Potential in 2024: Canaan Smith-Njigba, Joshua Palacios, Colin Selby, Brent Honeywell, Kyle Nicolas, Malcom Nunez, Michael Plassmeyer
Future Potential: Matt Gorski (2025), Valentin Linarez (2026), Carter Bins (2026), Justin Meis (2026), Hunter Barco (2027), Aaron Shortridge (2027), Rodolfo Nolasco (2027), Patrick Reilly (2027), Garret Forrester (2027), Omar Alfonzo (2027)
This section is where the 2024 depth stands out for the Pirates. It’s also where they got too many of their starters in the rebuilding years.
Roansy Contreras, Josh Fleming, Jose Hernandez, Ryder Ryan, and Hunter Stratton make up a solid group of bullpen depth options. All five have pitched in Pittsburgh this year, and all five should at least produce replacement level performance in the final bullpen spots.
There are two solid catching depth options in Jason Delay and recently acquired Joey Bart. This provides the Pirates with insurance in the event that Grandal doesn’t return healthy.
I think the most short-term upside from this group comes from Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester, and Ji Hwan Bae. Skenes could emerge as a 50-grade guy by the end of this season. It’s more conservative to grade Priester as a potential 45 guy who would end the year with a chance to fill out the 2025 rotation. Bae profiles as a super utility type who could have an eye on a 50 grade in the future if he hits his way into regular playing time and a single position. All three have the chance to drastically improve their current values this season.
I’m not going to go into detail on the long-term potential group. I will say that Kyle Nicolas, Colin Selby, and Brent Honeywell further add to the bullpen depth. Michael Plassmeyer could add to the starting depth. Joshua Palacios adds to the position player depth. I’m also interested in seeing if Canaan Smith-Njigba can make it back to the majors and be a replacement level guy. And I like Malcom Nunez as a corner infield guy with power.
35: Depth in Triple-A, aka Quad-A Players
Current: Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Joshua Palacios, Kyle Nicolas, Michael Plassmeyer, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Colin Selby, Cam Alldred, Billy McKinney
Potential in 2024: Joe Perez, J.C. Flowers, Dylan Shockley
Future Potential: Abrahan Gutierrez (2025), Nick Dombkowski (2025), Cam Junker (2025), Luke Brown (2025), Jackson Glenn (2025)
The 35-grade is good enough for the majors, but probably best working out of Triple-A as an injury replacement or short-term depth option, with a goal of turning that look into a longer opportunity.
Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales stand out from this current value group. You could grade either one as a 40-grade guy currently, and both have the chance to advance to future starting roles. Right now, they’re both behind Jared Triolo, battling as the top middle infield depth option in Pittsburgh.
This group has a lot of guys who can be starters and impact guys in Triple-A, while finding struggles once they reach the majors. I’m interested in LHP Michael Plassmeyer, outfielder Billy McKinney, and RHP Kyle Nicolas as the top options who could emerge as 40-grade or better depth options.
From the future potential group, I wouldn’t cap anyone at this upside. I tried to highlight players who could get a shot as depth options in the next year, but who might be able to advance beyond that single shot to a possible recurring bench role in the future. If I had to pick one player to highlight from this group for upside, it would be catcher Abrahan Gutierrez, who could emerge as a solid backup catcher one day.
LAST WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
Pirates Prospects isn’t made possible without your support. Even the free articles like this one. The best way to support the site is to subscribe to the premium article drops every Tuesday. For just $5 per month, you get access to the best features on the site. This past week looked at the top 50 prospects in the Pirates’ system:
**2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Top 50 Tiered Rankings Version 1.0
Paul Skenes leads a group of prospects in Triple-A who will provide the Pirates with depth throughout the 2024 season:
**Indianapolis Will Provide Paul Skenes and Depth For the Pirates in 2024
The best prospect group, from the start of the year through the end of the year, will be found in Altoona:
**Altoona Features the Best Prospect Group in the Pirates System in 2024
The hitters at the top of the Greensboro prospect group will have fun hitting in that home park with zero outfield space:
**Greensboro is Loaded With Hitting Talent At the Start of the 2024 Season
There’s a group of high upside players making their way to full-season ball, and it could be one of the best Single-A groups in years for the Pirates:
**Bradenton Has One of The Best Upside Prospect Groups in Years
Five players in rookie ball who stand out as some of the most promising options in the entire Pirates system:
**Five Players in Rookie Ball Who You Should Watch in the Pirates System
FREE Features
Aside from the premium articles released on Tuesday, Pirates Prospects has free features every day.
Monday – Prospect Watch: Paul Skenes and Jared Jones Will Be A Dangerous Combo
Tuesday – Article Drop (See Above)
Wednesday – Statcast Heroes: A Surprising Pirates Offense and Whiffs From Indianapolis
Thursday – Williams: Pittsburgh Deserves a Long Winning Streak From the Pirates
Friday – Williams: Two Prospects to Follow At Every Level of the Pirates Minor League System
Saturday – Saturday Sleepers: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a 17 year old throw 100 miles an hour”
Sunday – First Pitch (Reading)
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- 4/7: The Argument For Bailey Falter
- 4/6: Jared Jones and Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler, Oh My
- 4/3: The Pirates Make Two Trades and Prospect Rankings Are Released
- 4/1: Are the Pirates a Good Team?
THIS WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
This is the first full week of minor league baseball at all of the full season levels. I’ll be focusing on some of the prospects in the middle levels of the system in this week’s article drop, with the Jack Brannigan feature being my early favorite.
