Kyle Glaser at Baseball America had a look at the success rates of MLB teams picking prospects at the trade deadline. In the article, Glaser tracked prospects who went on to have a consequential MLB career. This means they played the majority of at least two seasons in the majors, with a positive career B-Ref WAR.
Glaser noted that the success rate of picking prospects went up from 2010-2017. From 2001-09, about one in six prospects added in deadline deals went on to be Major Leaguers. That improved to one in four, or 25.5%, from 2010-17.
The details of trades from 2018 forward aren’t available in Glaser’s article, due to not enough time passing. Ben Cherington took over the Pirates as the General Manager after the 2019 season, so all of his trades fall under this period where the results can’t accurately be compared around the league. There are results, though.
Yesterday, I looked at the trade history under Ben Cherington. Isolating the deadline deals, the Pirates have traded the following players: Adam Frazier, Clay Holmes, Richard Rodriguez, Tyler Anderson, Daniel Vogelbach, Jose Quintana, and Chris Stratton. This list doesn’t include the 2023 trades, as those deals just happened, and I’ve already analyzed them.
In the deadline deals above, the Pirates received ten players with prospect eligibility. Based on the success rate of Glaser’s article, they should at least have two MLB players from this group.
Jack Suwinski, added in the Frazier deal, is definitely one of those players. Suwinski has played the last two seasons in the majors, combining for a 3.3 WAR so far, and he’s only in his age 24 season. Tucupita Marcano from the same deal has a chance to eventually develop into a consequential MLB player.
A few of the deals are already dead in the water. Holmes, for example, was traded for Diego Castillo and Hoy Park. It’s possible that either of those guys could go on to become qualified MLB players for the BA study, but it won’t happen for the Pirates, as they’ve both been released.
The best chance for a second MLB player is Colin Holderman, who was added last year for Vogelbach. This is a bit of a stretch, as Holderman had 17.2 innings in the majors. That gives him prospect eligibility, though his 2.04 ERA during that time gave a preview of what to expect in the majors. Holderman would give Cherington a 25% rate for his early deadline moves.
The only other players who could help as future consequential MLB players are Marcano, Carter Bins, Joaquin Tejada, or Malcom Nunez. The best odds belong to Marcano, with Nunez having a shot. None of these guys project as more than 40-45 upside guys.
One disclaimer here is that Johan Oviedo was not a prospect when he was acquired last year for Quintana and Stratton. Oviedo had 112.1 innings in the majors at that point, with a 4.65 ERA. He had improved in 2022 with the Cardinals, and has thus far continued those improvements with the Pirates. The Pirates don’t get a boost in this study for adding a prospect who went on to become a Major Leaguer, though they do get a boost for adding a Major Leaguer who has improved as a Major Leaguer. That’s the most important thing — not finding players who haven’t played in the majors, but finding players who can improve in the majors.
Right now, with no further improvements, it looks like the deadline deals under Cherington will be around the average for that 2010-17 period. This assumes the average for present day isn’t higher.
QUICK PIRATES RECAP
The Pirates lost 6-3 to the Tigers.
Osvaldo Bido started and went three innings, giving up four runs. He was followed by Ryan Borucki for two shutout innings. Bido gave up three of his runs in the top of the fourth, with two scoring off Borucki. Dauri Moreta, Jose Hernandez, and Yerry De Los Santos closed it out with four innings of work.
Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds picked up three hits each. McCutchen drew a walk and added a double. Connor Joe went 1-for-4 with his 20th double of the year. The Pirates spread their offense around throughout the game, and were out of it after that fourth inning from Detroit.
AROUND THE SYSTEM
Josiah Sightler was the player of the month in the Pirates system during the month of July.
Prospect Watch: Josiah Sightler is Player of the Month, Lonnie White Jr. Homers
INDIANAPOLIS
The Pirates have been doing a lot of bullpen games in Triple-A. I’d imagine that’s more to do with the lack of starting pitching. This is a strategy I’d like to see them try during the final two months.
ALTOONA
Tsung-Che Cheng has extended his hitting streak to ten games with the Curve.
GREENSBORO
Bubba Chandler has one run in 15.1 innings over his last three starts, and was the Greensboro player of the month.
BRADENTON
Lonnie White Jr. is heating up, with two hits on Wednesday, including his third homer of the year. In his last two games, he has two doubles, a triple, and a homer.
ROOKIE LEVELS
There was no rookie ball yesterday, but check out the Prospect Watch to read about Esmerlyn Valdez and Dariel Francia, the rookie ball players of the month.
