When Austin Meadows arrived, I wrote about how it would be difficult for the Pirates to keep him up based on a small sample size, regardless of his success.
Now? It might be difficult to send him down.
It’s easy to be logical and take a calm approach to a situation ahead of time. In the article, I pointed out two hot streaks from Gregory Polanco — one when he arrived in the majors and one in the first half of May. Polanco had a hot stretch in his first ten games, then fell off and struggled for most of the next year after the league adjusted to him.
Polanco has been a streaky player in the majors, and a lot of that has been due to injuries. Last year was an extreme example of that, when he would go through a cycle of getting hot, only to get injured, then return cooled down, only for the cycle to eventually repeat itself. This year he has been healthy, but still streaky. He struggled in April, then got hot at the start of May, but has been slumping since the middle of the month.
Meanwhile, Austin Meadows has played seven games with a 1.345 OPS. He’s got an 0.8 fWAR, which ranks fourth on the team for position players.
When you’re in the middle of this situation, it becomes difficult to take that calm approach. You start to wonder whether Meadows can continue this pace — well, maybe not this pace, but something similarly productive. You start to think that the Pirates should ride the hot hand until Meadows cools down.
I wrote that Meadows should only be up for a short time, and that the Pirates should ignore small sample sizes. Even now there is part of me that just wants to see him play in the majors and see how long this can continue. I intended to write about Meadows today to discuss the small sample size and how that might not be reliable to go on. But I can’t make this a totally one-sided issue, as it’s definitely nuanced and not as easy of a decision as it originally seemed to be.
The part of me that wants to see Meadows up is the same part of me that doesn’t care about analysis. That part of me doesn’t care about the long-term impact of keeping Meadows up — both in terms of impact to the Pirates and impact to Meadows. It doesn’t care about adjustments, previous stats, regression, or roster situations. The part of me that wants to see Meadows stick around is the part of me that has waited on him to arrive since the summer of 2013, when I watched him crush his first home run in the GCL and heard scouts commenting “There’s that Jay Bruce power.” The part of me that wants him to stick around is the part of me that is glad he has finally arrived and is having success, and wants to see more.
But there’s an analytical side as well. And you don’t really need that to know that Meadows won’t be THIS good.
I thought that Meadows would hit for more power than he has shown in the minors. However, his current .448 ISO far exceeds that expectation, to the point where it’s easy to see that this isn’t sustainable. Meadows has put up good numbers in the minors, with a .246 ISO in his first run through Triple-A, and a .299 ISO in Altoona that year. I think he has the power to be an impact player. But clearly the current power is a product of a small sample, especially when you look at his Triple-A numbers this year. He had a .103 ISO in the minors. Unless something magically clicked on the plane ride to Pittsburgh, I’d hesitate to say that he has figured it all out.
There are other red flags. A high average fueled by a .417 BABIP. Zero walks so far in 29 plate appearances. He has a low strikeout rate during that span, but the average and power will come down, and he’ll need the walks to make up for that loss.
What we’re seeing at the plate isn’t real. That should be obvious. What we don’t know is how far will Meadows fall? How far will the average drop when the BABIP normalizes? How far will the power drop? Will he draw walks when he’s not crushing everything? Will he maintain a low strikeout rate? And then there’s the dreaded question: What happens when the league adjusts?
The league will adjust. Meadows didn’t completely adjust to pitchers in Triple-A yet, so I have a hard time thinking he has figured it out in the majors.
And there’s the problem. If you keep Meadows up and ride the hot streak, what do you do when he starts to cool? Send him down to work things out? That’s a tough situation, sending a guy down at the first sign of struggle. The Pirates didn’t do that with Polanco or any other player, opting to give them confidence that they’re up no matter what.
Meadows never really had that situation. He was up until Marte returned. That was the plan. If they make a decision to keep him up based on seven games, then they run into a problem where they don’t have a set plan of how to react when he struggles. Unless they’ve decided to keep him up for good.
We’ve already seen this situation play out on the pitching side. Nick Kingham pitched well, and is still tied for the third best fWAR on the pitching side of the team. The Pirates only had him up for a short time, and sent him down according to the plan (although he seems to be returning). They didn’t adjust their plan and send Joe Musgrove to the bullpen, or keep Kingham up until the league adjusted to him. The next time he comes up, there might be a new plan and his promotion might be more long-term.
I’d love to see Meadows up for good. But I also know that the current numbers aren’t real, and the Pirates probably didn’t plan on having him up for good, which creates a difficult situation when he eventually struggles and the league adjusts to him. Unless the Pirates are willing to keep him up for good based on seven games and largely unsustainable stats, it would be best to stick to the plan and send him back down when Starling Marte returns.
Meadows will eventually return, and maybe Polanco’s inconsistent play and latest slump could impact whether Meadows will be up for the long-term. I look forward to that time, but I also have a difficult time saying that the time should be now for Meadows based off a seven game sample.
PLAYOFF PUSH
Bradenton is in third place in their division, 4.5 games behind the leader with 23 games remaining in the first half.
West Virginia is in third place in their division, three games behind the leader with 23 games remaining in the first half.
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates won 8-1 over the St Louis Cardinals on Friday night. The Pirates will send Trevor Williams to the mound for his 11th start today. He allowed four runs on four hits and no walks in six innings against the San Diego Padres in his last start. The Cardinals scheduled starter is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who struck out 13 batters and allowed one run on two hits and one walk over 7.2 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last start. He has a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings, with 27 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP.
The minor league schedule includes Mitch Keller making his ninth start of the season. He was our Player of the Week last week for giving up three runs over 13.2 innings, with 14 strikeouts in two starts. JT Brubaker gets his fourth start for Indianapolis. He has a combined 2.08 ERA through 52 innings, with 47 strikeouts this season. Bradenton starter James Marvel has given up one run over 12 innings in his last two starts combined. West Virginia starter Hunter Stratton had two straight outings in which he gave up one run over five innings before allowing five runs in four innings last time out.
MLB: Pittsburgh (28-22) vs Cardinals (26-22) 4:05 PM
Probable starter: Trevor Williams (3.05 ERA, 40:20 SO/BB, 59.0 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (24-21) vs Charlotte (18-28) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: JT Brubaker (2.65 ERA, 12:7 SO/BB, 17.0 IP)
AA: Altoona (21-22) @ Harrisburg (22-23) 6:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Mitch Keller (3.02 ERA, 44:21 SO/BB, 47.2 IP)
High-A: Bradenton (24-21) vs Jupiter (29-17) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: James Marvel (3.48 ERA, 37:13 SO/BB, 51.2 IP)
Low-A: West Virginia (25-19) vs Kannapolis (29-17) 6:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Hunter Stratton (6.23 ERA, 26:10 SO/BB, 21.2 IP)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Bradenton on Thursday night, Tyler Gaffney hits his second triple of the game, driving in two runs.
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
5/25: JT Brubaker assigned to Altoona. Austin Coley assigned to Altoona.
5/25: Jacob Taylor retired. Kevin Mahala was released (possibly retired).
5/24: Trae Arbet released. Jesse Medrano added to Bradenton roster.
5/23: JT Brubaker assigned to Altoona.
5/22: Jesus Liranzo promoted to Indianapolis. Jackson Williams assigned to Morgantown.
5/22: Tyler Jones released.
5/21: David Lee retired.
5/21: JT Brubaker activated from Temporary Inactive List
5/21: Cody Bolton added to West Virginia roster. Dylan Busby placed on disabled list.
5/20: Pirates activate Josh Harrison from DL. Nick Kingham optioned to Indianapolis.
5/19: Pirates recall Nick Kingham. Max Moroff optioned to Indianapolis.
5/19: Sean Keselica added to Altoona roster.
5/19: Brett Pope added to West Virginia roster.
5/18: Travis MacGregor and Joel Cesar placed on disabled list. Max Kranick added to West Virginia roster.
5/18: Pirates recall Austin Meadows. Starling Marte placed on the disabled list.
5/17: JT Brubaker placed on temporary inactive list. Jackson Williams added to Indianapolis.
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
Three former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus the debut of one of the best pitchers in franchise history, and a very historic pitching performance. The players born on this date include catcher Dann Bilardello, who played for the Pirates in 1989 and was a member of the 1990 NL East champs. Pitcher Chuck Hartenstein, who played for Pittsburgh in 1969-70, and pitcher Jack Cronin, who was a teammate in 1898 of the pitcher who made his debut on this date.
Sam Leever, who went 194-100 in 13 seasons in Pittsburgh, made his debut on this date in 1898 as a reliever. There were two interesting things of note from the post-game recap about Leever’s debut. The local newspaper praised his speed and control, saying if he listened to instructions, he should become a winner. Leever was quoted after the game, saying that he will work to become a better hitter. The Pirates lost to 11-7 to the last place Senators that day, but Leever obviously became a winner and went on to help the Pirates to four NL titles and one World Series title.
On this date in 1959, Harvey Haddix threw what is called by many, the greatest pitched game ever. He retired the first 36 batters he faced, only to lose the game in the 13th inning. While he got the loss, he is still remembered for this amazing feat 59 years later and it is unlikely to ever be topped. Here is the boxscore from that game.
