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What can the Pirates expect in exchange for Ryan Doumit?


I only have a few minutes on my lunch break, but I wanted to briefly touch on the Ryan Doumit trade rumor. I advocated trading Doumit last offseason, as I was not convinced that he would be able to duplicate his 2008 performance. With the improved major league capable catching depth and the impressive debut of first round draft pick Tony Sanchez, I am still in favor of dealing Doumit, assuming we can still get something of value for him. So let’s take a look at what he should be worth in a trade.

Doumit was worth about 3.5 wins in 2008 and about 0.5-1.0 win in his troublesome 2009 season. I don’t have time for a detailed projection right now, but I will assume that he will be worth 2.2 wins in 2010, 2 wins in 2011, 2 wins in 2012, and 1.8 wins in 2013. Plugging those expectations and his future salaries into Sky Kalkman’s Trade Value Calculator, we find that Doumit has a surplus trade value of $16.1 million over the next two years or $18.5 million over the next four years (if his option is picked up).

You can find the trade value of prospects here (based on research done by Victor Wang). Using these numbers, we find that Doumit should be worth a top 51-75 position player plus a throw-in prospect. Or we should be able to get a top 50 pitching prospect. Or maybe two or three B-level prospects.

This is just a quick analysis, written in ten minutes. But it gives us a quick idea of what to look for in a trade of Doumit.

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