Sometimes you don’t see the best results from the best prospects.
Sunday’s action featured left-handed pitcher Anthony Solometo on the mound for Altoona. The top five prospect in the system, and top 100 prospect in the eyes of some evaluators, had a rough day. Solometo allowed three runs on six hits in three innings of work. He struck out one and walked one. This followed a debut last week where he went four shutout innings with one hit allowed.
Braxton Ashcraft, one of the top ten prospects in the system, came in for two innings of relief. Ashcraft allowed two runs on three hits, with one walk and one strikeout.
Following Ashcraft, the Curve sent Valentin Linarez to the mound for two innings. I wrote about Linarez recently as a sleeper prospect to follow. The hard throwing reliever gave up four runs on three hits, with two walks and three strikeouts.
It wasn’t a good day for three very talented pitching prospects at the Double-A level. Still, the poor results today make Bubba Chandler’s four no-hit innings on Saturday against the same team all the more impressive.
PIRATES PROSPECT WATCH
INDIANAPOLIS lost 16-6 to Toledo, after an eight run second inning.
CF Gilberto Celestino had three of the hardest hit balls of the game, leading to two hits and reaching base on an error.
3B Malcom Nunez hit his third homer of the year, giving Indianapolis their fifth run of the game when they were down 16-4.
PH Eli Wilson had a pinch hit home run in the ninth inning.
C Carter Bins went 3-for-4 with a double. He had two of the three hardest hit balls of the game.
LHP Michael Plassmeyer gave up eight runs in 1.2 innings.
ALTOONA lost 10-2 with some of the best prospects in the system on the mound, noted above.
LF Tres Gonzales went 2-for-4 with a double and a triple, getting the only extra base hits of the game for Altoona, and scoring a run. I wrote about Gonzales this past week, and the advanced approach he brings to the plate.
3B Brenden Dixon also picked up two hits in four at-bats, scoring the only other run of the game. He also stole his first base of the season.
1B Abrahan Gutierrez went 1-for-4, and has a hit in all six games he’s played this season, including going 6-for-15 this week.
DH Seth Beer went 2-for-3.
C Dylan Shockley went 1-for-4 with an RBI.
GREENSBORO won 6-4, after scoring four in the top of the ninth and holding off a three run surge from Winston-Salem.
C Shawn Ross went 1-for-3 with a two run homer, giving Greensboro a lead and breaking a scoreless game in the fifth inning.
DH Hudson Head launched his second homer of the year in the ninth inning with two on base, giving the Grasshoppers important insurance runs.
RHP Wilber Dotel, who went four shutout innings earlier this week, was pulled after 1.1 shutout frames and three walks allowed today.
2B Termarr Johnson went 1-for-3 with a walk.
RHP Yunior Thibo pitched two shutout innings, getting the win as the pitcher on the mound when Greensboro took the lead in the fifth.
BRADENTON lost 7-5 to Lakeland, falling to 1-8 on the season.
RHP Khristian Curtis allowed five runs on three hits and two walks, giving up two homers. He struck out five batters, getting good results from a 91 MPH cutter.
RF P.J. Hilson, acquired in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, went 2-for-4 with a homer.
C Garret Forrester got another start behind the plate, and went 0-for-2 with two walks.
3B Jesus Castillo went 1-for-3 with two walks and two strikeouts. He was caught stealing for the first time this season in seven attempts.
CF Shalin Polanco went 1-for-4 with a walk.
STATCAST HEROES
Indianapolis had three of the hardest hit balls off the bat of Gilberto Celestino. He doubled, singled, and reached on an error. Carter Bins had two of the hardest hit balls, with a double and a single. STATS
Khristian Curtis picked up four whiffs on his cutter today on seven swings. His fastball sat 96 MPH, touching 97.2, picking up six called strikes. He also threw a changeup, slider, and curveball.
TOMORROW’S SCHEDULE
The minor leagues are off on Monday. Check the site tomorrow for the weekly recap of all of the best performers in the Pirates’ system.
Last year, I asked a simple question behind the scenes: Does Pirates Prospects need to exist?
We’ve reached a point in time on the internet that I predicted years ago. When I started this site in 2009, there was hardly any minor league coverage. That’s not just with the Pirates, but across the game of baseball. Today, there is more prospect coverage than ever. In regards to the Pirates, the beat writers actually report on the prospects now, and not just top ten, major league ready guys.
The best way to display the difference between now and then is to look at the 40-man roster and the Rule 5 draft. There used to be a time where the Pirates would protect a player from the Rule 5 draft who no one had heard about, until the moment they were added to the 40-man roster. If a player was taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft, you wondered what that team saw that the Pirates might have missed. There was very little information in the minors, other than a list of 30 players to watch provided by Baseball America.
There was a time where I lived for the extra insert that BA provided with their Prospect Handbook, giving one extra prospect to follow and read about. The magic of that number 31 prospect was like looking behind the scenes and getting an added glimpse at the mystery of player development. Because there are more than 31 minor league players. If I wrote six player features a week, it would take me over half a year to write about everyone in the entire minor league system at least once.
Today, it seems that anyone looking to start a baseball writing career gravitates toward the niche of writing about prospects. I understand that. I was once the young aspiring reporter, looking for a niche to break into the game. I was fortunate to own this niche for over a decade, to the point where my coverage and reporting started influencing what the MLB beat writers were doing. But this niche is too big for one person or one site.
This site doesn’t need to exist. There are plenty of other people attempting to cover the minors. I am the best at that, but this is not what I want to do for the rest of my life. I returned this year to run a solo Pirates Prospects because it’s something I’ve been thinking about doing since 2019-2020. I wanted to see how this site would look with just one actual reporter, rather than one reporter with divided time and several contributors. The challenge is finding a way to sell the work as prospect coverage becomes more prevalent.
An example of this came up yesterday. I saw that Alex Stumpf posted a story in Spring Training about Bubba Chandler. I didn’t see this story until yesterday, but it was published on March 2nd. The story contains a lot of the information that I had last August, when I spoke with Chandler for one of my final player features of 2023. I wrote a similar update for Baseball America in February. I followed up on that reporting with a look at Chandler in a recent premium article drop.
The information is largely the same across all four articles, because it’s true. Chandler is very accountable, and has shown advanced maturity in taking control of his career. His story is going to be the same for every reporter he talks with, who asks the right questions.
I bring this up only because Alex Stumpf is one of the best baseball writers in Pittsburgh. His job is to cover the MLB team, but he does a great job at covering the minors. That said, his job is covering the MLB team, while my job is covering the minors. That means I was in position to get this story last August, right after it happened. I also was focused on Chandler again this spring for the Baseball America story. Alex was covering Pittsburgh in August, and was covering MLB players early in camp when I spoke with Chandler a second time. Chandler eventually entered the orbit of Alex’s beat, but there were six months between my original report and Alex getting a chance to talk with Chandler for the same update.
I found the story from Alex to be enjoyable, even if I had talked to Chandler multiple times about the topic. It was valuable getting another perspective, even if only to confirm that Bubba Chandler is honest and accountable in every interview. The challenge for me is getting paid for my story when the one from Alex exists.
If you read my original report last year, I got paid in advertising money, as it was a free article during a time when I didn’t know the future of this site or my work.
You need a subscription to Baseball America to read my work there, and I get paid by the article.
Alex writes for MLB.com now, so his work is free to access. He also gets paid, regardless of performance. He writes an article and moves on. I write an article and have to sell it to people.
In order to get paid today, I need people to subscribe to the site’s Patreon to access articles like my recent one on Chandler.
The advantage I have is that I get information much earlier than anyone in the minors, due to my vast experience covering player development. There are stories on the site right now that probably won’t be on any other site for months. The question is whether enough people would pay for early access to minor league player reports. How many people are reading the new Chandler article when they can get Alex’s article for free?
PREMIUM ARTICLE DROPS
Every Tuesday, I release six articles that can only be accessed with a Patreon subscription. These are articles that I want to write. They’re topics or updates that no one else has covered, providing new information from the vast spectrum of player development. My theory is if I want to know, you want to know.
This past week, I wrote about Jack Brannigan. That story is based on a conversation I had with Brannigan and his manager Robby Hammock at the end of last year, plus a conversation I had with Pirates farm director John Baker this year. Despite the conversation with Brannigan being eight months old, it’s still relevant. The most relevant aspect today is what he has been doing to improve his swing and miss. I noticed the swing and miss while watching him in person for a week. He told me last year he had been working on some posture adjustments, but also a better approach where he focused on the top of the zone and adjusted his sights down. This approach allowed him to be on time for fastballs.
So far, Brannigan has a 13.5% strikeout rate this year, down from 33.5% last year in High-A. It’s a small sample size, and hasn’t come with the power he’s shown in the past. His current .459 OBP is a massive improvement. He also continues to display plus defensive skills at both positions on the left side of the infield.
That article on Brannigan was one of my favorites of this past week, because it represented why this site exists, as it currently exists. You might read the same information elsewhere in the future, but by then, I’ll be on to the next development to cover.
The downside is that one day after that article, I saw two people on Twitter asking questions about Brannigan that were answered in the article. In an ideal world, that article is read on Tuesday by enough people to become common knowledge on Wednesday. In reality, there will be people who read this update about Brannigan from other writers in the future. And I’ll grind it out, trying to sell enough subscriptions to continue producing prospect content that is ahead of everyone else.
I need at least 1,000 Patreon subscribers to make this operation full-time, allowing for reporting and updates every week. The goal, regardless of subscriber counts, is to provide information that no one else has reported. My hope in a time of so many minor league writers is that enough people will pay for my experience and reporting skills on a niche subject. That’s not to say that no one else should be supported or read. It’s simply to say that I think there is value in my work and contribution to this media landscape. My hope is that enough people agree, enough to contribute the financial equivalent of one cup of coffee per month.
At some point this year, I’ll get the answer to the question: Does Pirates Prospects need to exist?
Until then, I’ll be focusing on creating content I want to see that no one else has.
This will be the first full week of three free articles per day. Pirates Prospects Daily recaps the daily events. The Pirates Prospect Watch covers the minor league results. I also have the free daily feature above.
These are made possible once again by subscriptions to the site, which gets you access to the premium articles every Tuesday. The article drop this Tuesday will feature players who have stood out to me in the early games. This week won’t have a reporting aspect, but will be more about initially scouting players I’ve highlighted for future reporting.
I love the challenge system in Triple-A.
At the Major League level, if you argue balls and strikes, you immediately get ejected from the game. It doesn’t matter how wrong the call was. It doesn’t matter that we have the technology to see instantly what the correct call should have been. The rule of the umpires at the MLB level is near infallible.
At the Triple-A level, the challenge system allows for an instant and efficient review to ensure the important pitches get called correctly. The pitcher, catcher, and batter can challenge any pitch. A team gets as many correct challenges per game, but can only miss three times. Take a look at this pair of pitches from Paul Skenes on Friday night as the best example of this system.
Paul Skenes is coming for Angel Hernandez's Job. 🤣
The Challenge King definitely has a future in umpiring if he can't make it as a pitcher. pic.twitter.com/g4DYEZ6HCu
On the first pitch, Skenes threw a pitch that hit the lower left corner of the strike zone. The pitch was called a ball. Skenes tapped the top of his cap, signaling a challenge. A second later, the technology we can access on our cell phones verified that it was a strike. The result changed the play from a leadoff walk to a strikeout.
Later that inning, Skenes threw his 54th pitch of the game on a 2-2 offering. The pitch was called a ball. Skenes once again signaled for a challenge by tapping the top of his hat. Once again, the ball was overturned by replay to be called a strike.
Without the challenge system, the third inning for Skenes could have gone much different. He would have been working around a leadoff walk. He would have been throwing a 3-2 offering for his 55th pitch, rather than being finished with the inning. All due to a human error that involves trying to see where a 100 MPH pitch accurately crossed an invisible box above the plate.
The challenge system didn’t always work in the favor of Skenes. The pair of videos below shows Skenes getting a called strike, which was overturned for a ball. This was in the same location where MLB umpire Angel Hernandez called three straight balls as strikes to ring up Texas Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford.
Here's what happened tonight when the ump missed the call on a Paul Skenes pitch. 👇 pic.twitter.com/ShBwdzHLdY
That combination shows how MLB desperately needs this challenge system. It’s embarrassing that the Major League level features such blatant mistakes with no system in place to correct them. The system exists, and is being used all the way down to Single-A games.
Later on Friday night, the Pittsburgh Pirates were hurt by the lack of this challenge system. Aroldis Chapman was dealing with control issues, leading to a walk that loaded the bases. He eventually walked Alec Bohm to bring in a run and make the score 5-2. The final pitch, as shown below, was actually a strike.
I knew this pitch was a strike from watching the broadcast. Before Bohm had reached first base, the broadcast showed the replay of the pitch with the strike zone tracker that is used for the Triple-A challenge system. Even if you weren’t watching the broadcast, you could access your phone anywhere in the world with an internet connection and see the image above within seconds.
There is no good reason why the Automatic Balls and Strikes challenge system isn’t at the Major League level. The only reason I can think of is that the umpires union would block it, as this would be a step toward completely called automatic balls and strikes, with reduced need for a home plate umpire. That’s not a good reason. Especially when Angel Hernandez is botching calls repeatedly in the majors, while the minors get the same calls correct every time.
PIRATES LOSE TO PHILLIES
The Pirates lost 4-3 to Philadelphia in walk off fashion, after Aroldis Chapman blew a save in the seventh.
As Chapman came on to pitch in the seventh with a 3-2 lead, I thought it was a good move. The Phillies had the top of their lineup due up, and Chapman was likely to give up at least one base runner. If all worked well, he would get through the inning, leaving the 5-7 hitters due up in the eighth.
It did not work well.
Chapman had the same control issues he showed last night. He allowed a leadoff walk to Kyle Schwarber, who moved to second on a wild pitch, and moved to third on a groundout. After walking Bryce Harper, Chapman gave up an RBI single to Alec Bohm. Colin Holderman came in to get out of the jam, but the score was tied.
The Pirates took the lead earlier in the game on a two-run homer by Oneil Cruz. They got six strong innings from starter Marco Gonzales, who allowed two runs and struck out five. They couldn’t hold the lead, and eventually lost in the ninth inning on a walk off single.
I mentioned in a recent column that Chapman was due for an outing like this. It comes one night after David Bednar looked like he was getting back on track. The Pirates have won a few this year in come from behind fashion, and this week they’ve evened that out with a few giveaways by the bullpen.
PROSPECT WATCH
The nightly Pirates Prospect Watch is now its own article. I’ll be doing the weekly recap every Monday, as there are no games played. The daily Prospect Watch will look at one player who stands out that day, along with the recaps you’d normally see in this article.
Saturday’s Prospect Watch was highlighted by four no-hit innings from Bubba Chandler.
STATCAST HEROES
The changeup from Marco Gonzales had nine whiffs tonight on 18 swings. STATSThe minor league Statcast Heroes can be found in the nightly Pirates Prospect Watch.
DAILY VIDEO RUNDOWN
Oneil Cruz went opposite field for a two-run home run, giving the Pirates a 3-2 lead in the fifth. If you were listening to the broadcast before this moment, Neil Walker placed a home run jinx on the pitcher.
Game Time: 1:35 PM EDT
Watch: SportsNet-PIT
Listen: KDKA-FM 93.7
Pirates Starter: Mitch Keller, RHP (1-1, 5.29)
Phillies Starter: Zack Wheeler, RHP (0-2, 1.89)
In the Minors…
LHP Michael Plassmeyer takes the mound for Indianapolis at 2:05 PM EST.
Altoona throws LHP Anthony Solometo for his second start of the year at 1:00 PM.
Greensboro will see RHP Wilber Dotel follow his four shutout innings from last time as he takes the mound at 2:00 PM.
Last year’s 12th round pick, Khristian Curtis, will start for Bradenton at Noon.
PIRATES PROSPECTS DAILY
The latest in the Saturday Sleepers series looks at right-handed reliever Valentin Linarez, who saw a velocity increase last year, and started displaying better control by the end of the season. He’s opening the year pitching out of Altoona’s bullpen.
The original plan was for the Pirates to throw all three of their top 100 pitching prospects on Thursday. Jared Jones was scheduled against Philadelphia. Paul Skenes was slated to start in Triple-A, while Bubba Chandler was on the mound for Altoona.
Rain postponed the minor league games, leaving Jones on his own to allow three runs in six innings of work. Rain struck Altoona again on Friday, leaving Skenes alone to throw 3.1 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. The spotlight was on Chandler on Saturday, and he didn’t disappoint.
Chandler threw four no-hit innings for the Altoona Curve on Saturday in game one of their double-header, leading them to a 5-3 win. The right-hander was working 94-98 MPH with his fastball, issuing two walks and striking out six. This was the second start of the year for Chandler, who allowed two runs in 3.1 innings last time out. He looked a bit amped in that start, but was relaxed and looked like he was having fun in this outing.
I wrote about Chandler’s maturity and development, which is available exclusively for Patreon subscribers.
The trio of top 100 prospects struck out 22 batters in 13.2 innings of work.
PIRATES PROSPECT WATCH
INDIANAPOLIS lost game one of their double-header against Toledo by a score of 3-2.
RHP Quinn Priester allowed three runs on seven hits in four innings, with no walks and eight strikeouts. Priester recorded 17 whiffs on 38 swings for a 45% rate.
RHP Kyle Nicolas pitched two shutout innings, with a walk and a hit allowed, and five strikeouts recorded. Nicolas also picked up plenty of whiffs, recording nine on 14 swings for a 64% rate. He had six whiffs on seven swings with the slider. The fastball had three whiffs on six swings, with four called strikes.
2B Liover Peguero hit his first homer of the year, going 2-for-3 with two RBIs. The two run shot came in the first inning, and was the only scoring of the game for Indianapolis.
CF Matt Gorski went 1-for-3 with a double, striking out twice.
SS Nick Gonzales went 1-for-3.
INDIANAPOLIS lost game two by a score of 13-4, after giving up seven runs in the first.
LHP Cam Alldred got the start, allowing seven runs in the first, and pitching two innings total.
C Grant Koch hit a solo homer, his first of the year, going 2-for-3 in game two.
RF Canaan Smith-Njigba hit a two RBI triple in the second inning, helping to battle back from the seven run deficit.
3B Malcom Nunez had two hits, including his third double of the season.
SS Nick Gonzales went 1-for-4 in this game, with his eighth double of the year. Gonzales has hits in all but one game this season, and he’s reached base safely in every game. He currently has a seven game hitting streak.
ALTOONA won 5-3, getting out to an early lead, behind no-hit pitching from Bubba Chandler.
After Chandler left the game, LHP Nick Dombkowski came in to pitch two innings. He had some control problems, allowing three walks. This led to a run in the fifth inning. He settled down for a scoreless sixth.
C Abrahan Gutierrez had two hits, with his first double of the season. He opened the scoring in the first inning with an RBI single.
SS Kervin Pichardo knocked in two runs, one on a hit and one on a fielder’s choice. Both times he scored Gutierrez.
CF Matt Fraizer went 1-for-2 with a walk. He stole two bases tonight, taking second off two different pitchers.
2B Francisco Acuna went 1-for-2 with a walk.
ALTOONA lost game two by a score of 7-3 in a quiet game by the offense.
RF Tres Gonzales had the most productive game at the plate, going 1-for-2 with two walks and a stolen base. He moved to third on a throwing error on the steal, and scored as a result of getting into position.
CF Jase Bowen got on base with a walk, stole his third base of the season, and scored a run. He played first base in the first game of the double header.
C Dylan Shockley went 1-for-3.
RHP Sean Sullivan pitched four innings, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks. Sullivan struck out five, including three in a row in the first inning to escape a bases loaded jam. He allowed his runs in the third inning on a three run homer.
RHP Chris Gau, who was recently sent down from Indianapolis, pitched 2.1 perfect innings, striking out four.
GREENSBORO won 4-3 against Winston-Salem, scoring all of their runs in the third inning.
RHP J.P. Massey made the start, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk in five innings. He struck out two.
LHP Dominic Perachi threw three innings, allowing an unearned run on one walk and one hit. He struck out two.
3B Charles McAdoo went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk.
2B Mitch Jebb went 2-for-4 with two strikeouts.
RF Rodolfo Nolasco went 1-for-4 with a two RBI double.
BRADENTON lost 4-3 to Lakeland.
LHP Michael Kennedy allowed two runs in 3.1 innings, giving up six hits and one walk. The 2022 over-slot fourth rounder struck out six.
LHP Magdiel Cotto, last year’s 11th round pick, threw two no-hit innings. He allowed three walks, but escaped any damage thanks to two strikeouts.
2B Jesus Castillo went 1-for-4 with a walk. He stole two bases, giving him six this year, after stealing 39 last year.
1B Juan Jerez went 2-for-4 with a double, getting the hardest hit ball of the night for Bradenton at 112.1 MPH.
DH Jack Herman went 1-for-4 with an RBI.
STATCAST HEROES
Quinn Priester had all of his pitches working for strikes tonight. He had three whiffs on the sinker, seven on the slider, three on the curve, and two each on the changeup and four-seam. The sinker was the only pitch with less than a 50% whiff rate. He picked up 16 called strikes, with at least one on every pitch. He had a 41% called and swinging strike rate, with no individual pitch below 32%. STATS
Grant Koch had two hard hit shots. His home run in the seventh had a 95 MPH exit velocity. He hit a double in the fifth inning at 107.2 MPH for Indy’s hardest hit of the game. STATS
Michael Kennedy was getting results from his slider, working mostly with a four-seam/slider combo. The slider had four whiffs on ten swings, while adding eight called strikes for a 48% called and swinging rate. His fastball had some movement and late break like a sinker. He had five whiffs on 21 swings, along with seven called strikes. The pitch averaged 89.4, topping out at 92.2 tonight. It had separation from the slider, which averaged 80.4 MPH. STATS
TOMORROW’S SCHEDULE
LHP Michael Plassmeyer takes the mound for Indianapolis at 2:05 PM EST.
Altoona throws LHP Anthony Solometo for his second start of the year at 1:00 PM.
Greensboro will see RHP Wilber Dotel follow his four shutout innings from last time as he takes the mound at 2:00 PM.
Last year’s 12th round pick, Khristian Curtis, will start for Bradenton at noon.
Valentin Linarez had one of the biggest recorded velocity jumps in minor league baseball last year.
Baseball America tracked the year-over-year four-seam velocity gainers from 2022 to 2023, and the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander had one of the highest jumps on the list. He gained 4 MPH in velocity, jumping from 90.5 MPH to 94.5.
Linarez has not stopped there. I had a chance to see him last year in Greensboro at the end of the season, where he was pumping 95-96 MPH fastballs in a multi-inning relief outing. This spring, Linarez pitched an inning in the Spring Breakout game, once again working around 96 with his fastball.
The Pirates signed Linarez in January 2018 out of the Dominican. The 6′ 5″, 226 pound pitcher worked as a starter in the lower levels through the end of the 2022 season. He moved to the bullpen in 2023, which may have helped with the velocity increase.
The bullpen assignment is a good one for Linarez. He’s mostly a two-pitch guy, pairing his mid-90s fastball with a low-80s slider. The breaking pitch has the chance to be a plus offering, generating a good amount of whiffs. He’s held back by control issues, plus a tendency to give up the long ball.
Linarez made it to Double-A by the end of the 2023 season, but struggled with his control. This was similar to his struggles at the end of 2022 when he made the jump to High-A. His control got better at the High-A level in 2023, though the 12.5% walk rate could still be improved upon.
Returning to Altoona in 2024, Linarez has made two appearances so far this season. He’s allowed two earned runs in four innings, pitching two frames each time out. In his season debut, he struck out five, only giving up a solo homer. In his next outing, he struck out one, giving up two runs, one earned, on four hits.
What’s encouraging in the young season is that Linarez has maintained his velocity jump from last year, and has taken it slightly higher. He’s also yet to allow a walk this season, albeit in a small sample size. Despite the small sample size, the control shown thus far has been rare.
In his first season of relief, Linarez only had one two-game stretch where he threw four innings without a walk. In fact, he walked at least one batter in 20 of his first 21 appearances last season, before going 3.1 innings without a walk across three appearances at the end of July/early August. When I saw him last August, he was in the middle of a two-game stretch where he combined for no walks across four innings.
Linarez put up a 3.63 ERA in 17.1 innings over his final month-plus at the High-A level. He struck out 27 and walked seven in that stretch (10.8%), only issuing a walk in five of his 13 appearances.
The 2024 season is still early in the process, but seeing Linarez pick up where he left off with control and velocity is encouraging to see. His mid-90s fastball and swing and miss slider are a pair that could work in the majors, so long as he improves his control.
David Bednar looked fired up tonight.
The Pittsburgh Pirates closer entered the 5-2 game in the ninth inning and delivered three 97 MPH fastballs to Nick Castellanos. All three went for strikes, with the last two swinging. The intensity of Bednar’s pitching stood out, in his first appearance since blowing his third save of the season. Bednar got a pop out on a 98.2 MPH fastball, and despite throwing mostly fastballs, he ended the game on a pop out on a curveball, picking up his first save of the season.
That’s the type of response you want to see from a struggling player.
Bailey Falter set the table tonight with five innings of one run ball. The lefty allowed four hits and no walks, striking out three. I wrote last time about how Falter either looks lights out, or like a complete disaster. It’s usually a 60/40 split in favor of him being lights out the majority of the time. In three starts this year, he’s been outstanding in two, horrible in one, and has a 4.20 ERA through 15 innings.
The game was close for most of the contest, which made the pitching from Falter all the more impressive. The Pirates took a 1-0 lead in the second on a bases loaded walk by Henry Davis. They added a second run in the fourth on a Connor Joe RBI single. Davis scored in the seventh on a wild pitch, and added an insurance run in the eighth with an RBI double. Bryan Reynolds added another insurance run with a single to bring in Davis.
The bullpen combined for one run allowed, which came when Aroldis Chapman issued a bases-loaded walk after entering the game with two runners on base and one out in the eighth.
It was good to see Bednar return to form, and good to see Falter in the form that leads to elite numbers.
PIRATES PROSPECT WATCH
The nightly Pirates Prospect Watch is now its own article. I’ll be doing the weekly recap every Monday, as there are no games played. The daily Prospect Watch will look at one player who stands out that day, along with the recaps you’d normally see in this article.
The return to the daily Prospect Watch begins with Paul Skenes striking out eight batters in his latest Triple-A start.
STATCAST HEROES
David Bednar looked fired up, not just throwing hard, but throwing with conviction. But also, throwing hard. He averaged 97.3 MPH on his fastball, getting two whiffs on five swings, and four more called strikes. STATSThe minor league Statcast Heroes can be found in the nightly Pirates Prospect Watch.
**Indianapolis placed outfielder Joshua Palacios on the 7-day IL, retro April 11th.
**Bradenton placed outfielder Braylon Bishop on the 7-day IL, replacing him with Rule 5 pick P.J. Hilson.
TODAY: PIRATES (10-4) AT PHILLIES (7-7)
Game Time: 4:05 PM EDT
Watch: SportsNet-PIT
Listen: KDKA-FM 93.7
Pirates Starter: Marco Gonzales, LHP (0-0, 2.45)
Phillies Starter: Spencer Turnbull, RHP (1-0, 0.00)
In the Minors…
Indianapolis plays a double-header at Toledo, starting at 2:35 PM EST. RHP Quinn Priester will be starting game one, entering with a 2.79 ERA after two starts. LHP Cam Alldred will start game two, with a 3.86 ERA.
Altoona plays a double-header at home, starting at 3:00 PM. RHP Bubba Chandler will finally take the mound, after being delayed for two days. RHP Sean Sullivan will get the game two start.
Greensboro takes on Winston-Salem on the road at 7:00 PM. RHP J.P. Massey will make his second start of the season.
Bradenton sends LHP Michael Kennedy to the mound at Lakeland at 6:00 PM. Kennedy is the fourth round pick from the 2022 draft, taken out of the prep ranks and given an over-slot bonus.
PIRATES PROSPECTS DAILY
This article is post number 24,000 that has been published in the going on 16-year history at Pirates Prospects. It’s likely that there were a few published posts lost along the way, but the official count when I press publish goes to twenty-four thousand. That’s pretty cool.
I’ve written over a third of those articles, with a lot of columns. My latest column looks at the improvements shown by the Pirates early in the season.
Paul Skenes has now thrown 9.1 scoreless innings. He’s struck out 19 batters in that time. He’s allowed two walks and four hits. What he hasn’t done is pitch much more than three innings per start.
On Friday night, Skenes at least pitched into the fourth inning. Finishing three scoreless frames with 54 pitches and eight strikeouts, Skenes came back out for the fourth inning for the first time this season. The first pitch was a 94.5 MPH splinker, which got a slow 30 foot roller down the third base line, fielded cleanly by catcher Grant Koch for the final out.
Skenes was removed with 55 pitches and 3.1 scoreless frames. Perhaps he could have gone four if he was more efficient in the early innings. His previous two starts had him throwing between 40 and 50 pitches. With Skenes throwing to one batter in the fourth inning at 54 pitches, it stands to reason that he had a limit between 50 and 60 pitches.
The Pirates have been conservative with the usage of Skenes. He’s been firing bullets with the pitches he’s thrown. Out of those 55 pitches on Friday night, 15 were triple-digit fastballs. His fastball averaged 100.3 MPH, and had nine called strikes and two whiffs on 24 pitches. The slider from Skenes picked up six whiffs, and the splinker added four more.
PIRATES PROSPECT WATCH
INDIANAPOLIS lost 4-3 to Toledo in 11 innings. Skenes went 3.1 shutout innings, allowing three hits and a walk. He struck out eight of his ten batters faced.
CF Ji Hwan Bae went 2-for-3 with a walk in a rehab appearance. Bae was also caught stealing on a night where Indianapolis went 0-for-4.
2B Nick Gonzales went 1-for-5 with two strikeouts.
3B Sergio Alcantara went 2-for-3 with a walk and a double.
RHP Carmen Mlodzinski made his first appearance since being sent down. He allowed two runs on two hits, with the damage coming off a two run homer. Mlodzinski also struck out two.
LHP Brady Feigl pitched in relief of Skenes, going 1.2 scoreless innings. He allowed two hits, no walks, and struck out three.
ALTOONA was postponed due to rain for a second day in a row. Bubba Chandler was the scheduled starter each time out.
GREENSBORO won their suspended game from Thursday 10-0, after leading 9-0 in the fifth when the game was suspended due to rain.
CF Lonnie White Jr. went 3-for-5, hitting his fourth homer in six games, and falling a triple shy of the cycle. All of the hits were recorded on Thursday.
RF Sammy Siani went 2-for-4 with a home run, leading him to three of his four RBIs in the game.
C Shawn Ross hit a solo homer in the third inning to start all of the scoring.
LHP Hunter Barco pitched four shutout innings, allowing two hits, no walks, and striking out four. Barco didn’t get a chance to pitch beyond the fourth, due to the weather, but has been limited in his early outings.
RHP Jack Carey resumed the game on Friday, throwing three shutout innings, allowing a walk and a hit, and striking out three.
GREENSBORO lost 2-0 to Winston-Salem in a seven inning game two that saw the Grasshoppers limited to one hit.
RHP Patrick Reilly struck out six in four innings, allowing two runs on three hits, with one homer allowed. The 2023 fifth rounder was throwing mid-90s, with a good curveball and slider, and an advanced ability to change speeds with the three pitches. He has a 14:1 K/BB in 7.1 innings this year.
LHP Luis Peralta pitched two perfect innings, striking out five. Peralta has ten strikeouts through his first four innings.
RF Sammy Siani picked up the lone hit, going 1-for-2 with a walk.
2B Charles McAdoo went 0-for-2, but reached base on a walk and picked up his first stolen base of the season.
DH Termarr Johnson went 0-for-2 with a walk.
BRADENTON lost to Lakeland 7-6 in 10 innings, in a wild back and forth game.
1B Omar Alfonzo went 1-for-5 with a two run homer in the first inning. Alfonzo crushed the pitch 436 feet, with a 104.9 MPH exit velocity.
CF Shalin Polanco went 1-for-4 with a two run homer in the third inning. Polanco’s shot went 412 feet at 105.4 MPH.
The hardest hit ball of the night from the Marauders was from C Garret Forrester, who went 2-for-5 with a double that was 106.2 MPH off the bat.
RHP Carlson Reed allowed two runs in three innings, dealing with control issues during the start. Reed walked four, giving up three hits. He struck out four, getting three whiffs each on his sinker, slider, and changeup. The offspeed stuff wasn’t in the zone, and was getting below-average chase.
RHP Fineas Del Bonta-Smith made a rehab appearance, going 1.2 perfect innings with three strikeouts.
STATCAST HEROES
Every week, I publish a Statcast Heroes article, detailing the top performers of that week. Below are the top performers from last night’s games in Triple-A and Single-A.
INDIANAPOLIS had to deal with Bligh Madris crushing the ball, including a monster homer off Ryder Ryan. The pitches displayed below are the five that Skenes threw 101 or harder. STATSBRADENTON got some hard hits from their offense, and a good amount of swing and miss from Carlson Reed. STATS
TOMORROW’S SCHEDULE
Indianapolis plays a double-header at Toledo, starting at 2:35 PM EST. RHP Quinn Priester will be starting game one, entering with a 2.79 ERA after two starts. LHP Cam Alldred will start game two, with a 3.86 ERA.
Altoona plays a double-header at home, starting at 3:00 PM. RHP Bubba Chandler will finally take the mound, after being delayed for two days. RHP Sean Sullivan will get the game two start.
Greensboro takes on Winston-Salem on the road at 7:00 PM. RHP J.P. Massey will make his second start of the season.
Bradenton sends LHP Michael Kennedy to the mound at Lakeland at 6:00 PM. Kennedy is the fourth round pick from the 2022 draft, taken out of the prep ranks and given an over-slot bonus.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 9-4. They’ve started the 2024 season with surprising production from the team as a whole, seeing massive improvements from their pitching staff and their position player group.
It’s still early. There have only been 13 games played. That said, let’s look at how the Pirates have improved through the small sample of early results.
The Pitching
The Pirates rank 4th in fWAR in the young 2024 season. Their 3.72 ERA ranks 11th in the majors, while the 3.51 FIP ranks 6th.
This is a massive departure from the 2023 season. They ranked 23rd in fWAR. They ranked 22nd with a 4.61 ERA. The 4.40 FIP only gave them a boost to 21st overall.
So far, the Pirates have jumped from a bottom third pitching group to one of the top ten in the game. The biggest gains have been seen in the starting group.
Last year, the starting group ranked 27th in fWAR, with rankings of 24th for ERA (4.88) and FIP (4.63). This year’s starting group ranks 5th in WAR, while ranking 10th overall in ERA (3.72) and WHIP (3.73).
The bullpen was better than the rotation last year, ranking 11th in WAR. The 4.27 ERA ranked 19th, and the 4.09 FIP ranked 15th. This year’s group ranks 3rd in WAR, with a 3.72 ERA that ranks 13th, and a 3.15 FIP that ranks 3rd.
The starting group has seen a boost so far from offseason additions Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Jared Jones has also performed well through three starts, but not to the level of the lefties. Perez leads the group in ERA at 1.89, with his 3.11 FIP ranking second. Gonzales leads the group in FIP at 2.67, with a second ranked 2.45 ERA. So far, Bailey Falter is the only starter with an FIP above 3.83. Mitch Keller has a 3.40 FIP, but a 5.29 ERA, which should improve.
What’s encouraging about the reliever group is that all but two relievers this year have an FIP under 4.34. The encouraging part comes from the exceptions: David Bednar and Colin Holderman. Both should get back on track with much better numbers than they’ve shown in limited looks early this season.
That cuts both ways. The Pirates will see improvements from Bednar and Holderman. Keller will have a better ERA. However, some of the pitchers having success will regress. It’s unlikely that Perez, for example, pitches the entire year with an ERA under 2.00. And while Bednar and Holderman will improve, it is unlikely that Josh Fleming and Hunter Stratton finish with ERAs of 1.50 or less.
I think there’s more good than bad in this group, to allow for a middle of the pack group at worst, with the chance of a top ten group by the end of the year.
The Hitting
Just like the pitching, the Pirates had a bottom-third offense in 2023. The group ranked 22nd in WAR, 23rd in wOBA (.308) and 25th in wRC+ (90). From a defensive standpoint, they had the third most defensive runs, thanks in large part to Ke’Bryan Hayes at third, plus Austin Hedges and Jason Delay behind the plate.
This was a group that could play elite defense, but couldn’t hit.
This year’s position player group hasn’t made as big of a jump as the pitching staff, but they’ve climbed out of the basement, into the top half of the league. From a WAR standpoint, the Pirates rank 16th. They rank 10th with a .334 wOBA, and 13th with a 105 wRC+. Interestingly enough, they currently rank last in defensive runs, which drags down the WAR.
I would expect the defense to improve as the season goes on. The offense should stay middle of the pack or higher. My only concern with regression here are the high BABIP numbers from nearly all of their starters.
Michael A. Taylor (.520 BABIP in 2024/.321 career), Oneil Cruz (.433/.332), Andrew McCutchen (.357/.315), Ke’Bryan Hayes (.357/.322), Rowdy Tellez (.348/.256), Edward Olivares (.348/.297), and Connor Joe (.333/.305) are all candidates to see fewer balls falling in for hits than they’ve seen early in the year.
There’s a chance the position player group drops to the upper part of that bottom third tier. The pitching and improved defense could still keep the overall team winning.
Small Sample Sizes
The 2024 season is less than 10% of the way through. That 10% mark will be reached at the end of the series against the Phillies. It’s still early, and all of the numbers above represent unreliable small samples.
That said, they are encouraging.
Seeing the Pirates start the year with one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, led by improvements in both the rotation and bullpen, is the most encouraging sign.
The position player group improving to a middle of the pack group, with above-average offense, and uncharacteristically poor defense, is also encouraging.
Going forward, the pitching will regress, but should stay average to above-average. That will especially be obtainable with all of the depth the Pirates have to maintain their high level of production. The offense could regress to below average, but the fielding should improve.
A middle of the pack team across the board would indicate a .500 club. If the Pirates went .500 from this point forward, they would end the 2024 season with 84-85 wins.
The early start is encouraging, and does nothing to make me change my thought that this is going to be a winning season for the Pirates.
The Pittsburgh Pirates were originally scheduled to see three top 100 prospects pitching on Thursday. Rain had other plans.
Paul Skenes was scheduled to start for Indianapolis and Bubba Chandler was scheduled to start for Altoona. Both games were postponed due to weather. The other two minor league games were shortened.
Unfortunately, the Pirates game was played in full. Jared Jones took the mound, and pitched well until a two run homer in the seven inning. The rookie right-hander allowed three runs on six hits in 6.1 innings, with no walks and eight strikeouts. All three of his runs scored on the two home runs he allowed.
The Pirates turned to Colin Holderman, who allowed a two run homer to extend the Philadelphia lead to 5-0 at the time. Edward Olivares picked up two hits, and Jared Triolo had an RBI single in the ninth, but the Pirates offense couldn’t do much to help Jones on the evening.
It feels weird to say, but Jones didn’t have his best stuff. He’s a rookie who put up a quality start with eight strikeouts and 15 whiffs. However, he’s set the bar high in his first two outings. The difference today is the fastball wasn’t as effective, getting hit hard a few times, and not inducing as many whiffs.
It wasn’t a total loss on Thursday, as Lonnie White Jr. continued his offensive tear in the lower levels of the minors…
PROSPECT WATCH
Indianapolis and Altoona were postponed, which postponed the starts of Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler.
Greensboro had their game suspended, up 9-0 in the 5th inning. Lonnie White Jr. hit his fourth homer in six games. I wrote about White at the start of the season as one of the top ten prospects in the system. Shawn Ross and Sammy Siani also homered. LHP Hunter Barco pitched four shutout innings, allowing two hits, no walks, and striking out four.
Bradenton lost 13-5.
1B Omar Alfonzo went 2-for-3 with a walk. I wrote about Alfonzo recently as a sleeper prospect to follow. He’s batting .313 with an .825 OPS. One of his hits was a single that left the bat 102.1 MPH.
RHP Antwone Kelly was hit for seven runs on eight hits and two walks in 3.1 innings, with two home runs. Kelly is interesting for a 94-95 MPH fastball that got up to 98.6 on Thursday. His changeup picked up three whiffs on seven swings. Kelly struggles with throwing in the zone, and only had an 18% called and swinging strike rate.
LHP Connor Oliver, acquired recently for Colin Selby, made his debut in the Pirates’ organization. Oliver allowed six runs on five hits in 1.1 innings, with two homers allowed. His damage came in the second inning of work.
C Justin Miknis went 1-for-2, bringing in a run in the first inning with a bases loaded walk.
RF-CF Jesus Castillo went 0-for-2 with two walks. He started each of the first two innings with a leadoff walk, and scored in both frames as the Marauders got out to a 4-0 lead before recording a single hit.
STATCAST HEROES
Jared Jones added 15 whiffs to his season total, giving him 58 through three starts. STATS
Antwone Kelly with some of the hardest stuff Bradenton will throw this week. STATS
DAILY VIDEO RUNDOWN
A few sliders from Jared Jones, who picked up 11 whiffs on the pitch.
Colin Holderman was activated off the 15-day injured list.
TODAY: PIRATES (9-4) AT PHILLIES (7-6)
Game Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Watch: SportsNet-PIT
Listen: KDKA-FM 93.7
Pirates Starter: Bailey Falter, LHP (0-0, 5.40)
Phillies Starter: Cristopher Sanchez, LHP (0-1, 4.82)
In the Minors…
RHP Quinn Priester takes the mound for Indianapolis at 7:05 PM EST. This might change to Paul Skenes, as his start was postponed on Thursday.
RHP Bubba Chandler will make his start for Altoona at 6:00 PM at home.
Greensboro will finish their suspended game at 6:00 PM, followed by a game with RHP Patrick Reilly on the mound.
Bradenton sends RHP Carlson Reed to the mound at 6:30 PM for his second start of the season.
PIRATES PROSPECTS DAILY
In today’s column, I looked at the David Bednar situation, and how the Pirates would be well suited to give him a temporary break from the closer’s role.
Khristian Curtis picked up four whiffs on his cutter today on seven swings. His fastball sat 96 MPH, touching 97.2, picking up six called strikes. He also threw a changeup, slider, and curveball.
I knew this pitch was a strike from watching the broadcast. Before Bohm had reached first base, the broadcast showed the replay of the pitch with the strike zone tracker that is used for the Triple-A challenge system. Even if you weren’t watching the broadcast, you could access your phone anywhere in the world with an internet connection and see the image above within seconds.
There is no good reason why the Automatic Balls and Strikes challenge system isn’t at the Major League level. The only reason I can think of is that the umpires union would block it, as this would be a step toward completely called automatic balls and strikes, with reduced need for a home plate umpire. That’s not a good reason. Especially when Angel Hernandez is botching calls repeatedly in the majors, while the minors get the same calls correct every time.
The minor league Statcast Heroes can be found in the nightly 
Grant Koch had two hard hit shots. His home run in the seventh had a 95 MPH exit velocity. He hit a double in the fifth inning at 107.2 MPH for Indy’s hardest hit of the game. 
Michael Kennedy was getting results from his slider, working mostly with a four-seam/slider combo. The slider had four whiffs on ten swings, while adding eight called strikes for a 48% called and swinging rate. His fastball had some movement and late break like a sinker. He had five whiffs on 21 swings, along with seven called strikes. The pitch averaged 89.4, topping out at 92.2 tonight. It had separation from the slider, which averaged 80.4 MPH. 
The minor league Statcast Heroes can be found in the nightly 
BRADENTON got some hard hits from their offense, and a good amount of swing and miss from Carlson Reed. 
Antwone Kelly with some of the hardest stuff Bradenton will throw this week. 
