PIRATES PROSPECTSPITTSBURGH PIRATES MINOR LEAGUE NEWS, TRANSACTIONS, AND ARTICLES

Today marked the first time that I attended a Pirates spring training game, as I watched the Pirates host the Red Sox at McKechnie Field. Here are a few observations from the game. Ronny Cedeno looked awful attempting to field a ground ball to start the game, allowing a routine grounder to roll right under his glove. But he rebounded, throwing out two guys at the plate and making a nice play on a bouncer up the middle. He clearly has some physical tools, but he needs to improve his consistency to be an average shortstop. I really liked the way that Jeff Clement and Andy LaRoche looked at the plate today. I had a terrible angle of the strike zone, but both appeared to take very patient approaches. Clement walked and flew out to the left field warning track. LaRoche ripped one just outside the left field foul pole, walked, singled home a run and lined sharply to center (or maybe it was left, I can’t remember). Evan Meek was giving up some rockets today. One ball was ripped to short, and Ramon Vazquez was nearly killed trying to field the ball cleanly. Just not a good day for Meek, who I am optimistic about for the 2010 season. John Raynor grounded into a fielder’s choice at one point, giving him the opportunity to sprint down the first base line. I was disappointed, as I expected to see some elite speed. He seemed to have a long stride, almost a gallop. Maybe that made him appear to be running slower than he was actually moving, but I just didn’t see anything special. He did hit an impressive opposite field home run later in the game, showing that he has some solid power. But I was let down by his foot speed. It was nice to see minor leaguers Jim Negrych and Jeremy Farrell get some playing time in the game. They teamed up to turn a double play, and both singled in the seventh inning. Just fun to watch. Following up on that, Farrell really looked good in the field. He had two chances to make diving plays at third base and, while he did not get an out in either instance, he displayed some impressive range both times. Farrell had a disappointing 2009 season at the plate, but I liked what I saw out of him defensively. Brian Myrow also made a very nice play in the field, starting a key 3-6-3 double play for the Pirates. The offensive projection systems love Myrow, a 33-year-old first baseman. He may be a sleeper that could find himself in Pittsburgh at some point in 2010. Finally, a foul ball off the bat of Akinori Iwamura landed just a few feet from me in the first inning. Inexplicably, I never moved. I simply watched it fall from the heavens. Mistakes like that might be excusable in spring training, but I will have to get things together very soon. The regular season is just around the corner.

I arrived in Tampa yesterday, and I am currently making the drive down to Bradenton to watch the Pirates host the visiting Boston Red Sox at McKechnie Field. This is my first spring training experience, and the young fan inside me is bubbling upward in an exciting fashion. I will probably update this post with some thoughts throughout the game. Keep an eye on the Twitter feed as well. 11:20 AM: Started the day off with some disappointment, as I learned that Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata were reassigned to minor league camp. I was looking forward to my first in-person look at Alvarez, and I was also eager to compare Tabata to the version I saw in Altoona in August 2008. Might have to get over to Pirate City at some point to try to catch a glimpse. 2:00 PM: Ronny Cedeno has had a good day in the field after gator-arming a grounder to start the game. He made a nice play ranging up the middle, and he has nailed two guys at the plate with strong throws. Definitely has some defensive tools. 4:10 PM: Jean Machi closes out a 9-7 Bucs victory. More thoughts from the game coming later tonight.

When we compared the Pirates’ 2009 offense with the team’s 2010 projections, we found that the Bucs should expect to see a five-win improvement strictly through their performance at the plate. That is all well and good, but it is only one aspect of the team. Today we look at the defense, which does not look quite as optimistic.

 

The team that began the 2009 season in Pittsburgh was anchored by two elite defenders, with additional above average gloves all around the diamond. Nyjer Morgan and Jack Wilson were among the best at their respective positions, while Freddy Sanchez, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss and Nate McLouth were solid. Of course, four of those six players were traded at mid-season.

 

2009
Player	UZR
Nyjer Morgan	14.4
Jack Wilson	11.5
Brandon Moss	7.0
Lastings Milledge	5.8
Andy LaRoche	5.3
Freddy Sanchez	3.9
Nate McLouth	3.4
Eric Hinske	1.0
Luis Cruz	0.3
Jeff Salazar	0.3
Ryan Doumit	-0.5
Craig Monroe	-0.6
Andrew McCutchen	-0.7
Brian Bixler	-1.3
Neil Walker	-1.3
Steve Pearce	-1.5
Ramon Vazquez	-1.7
Adam LaRoche	-1.8
Garrett Jones	-2.1
Ronny Cedeno	-4.0
Delwyn Young	-7.5
Total	29.9

 

I am using Steve Sommer’s UZR/150 projections for 2010, adjusted to raw UZR based on my expected plate appearances. These are regressed and they include an adjustment for Tom Tango’s Fans Scouting Report. Jeff Clement did not have a projection, so I estimated his UZR/150 to be -5 runs at first base. I also made estimates for a few other players who should receive significantly less playing time. Here are the results

 

2010
Player	UZR
Lastings Milledge	3.5
Garrett Jones	2.7
Andy LaRoche	1.5
Andrew McCutchen	1.3
Akinori Iwamura	1.3
Ryan Church	1.2
Brandon Moss	0.3
John Raynor	0.1
Jose Tabata	-0.3
Delwyn Young	-1.3
Ronny Cedeno	-2.0
Pedro Alvarez	-3.3
Jeff Clement	-3.3
Bobby Crosby	-3.5
Total	-2.0

 

Garrett Jones actually projects to be one of the better defenders, because I penciled him in to receive considerable playing time at first base. There are not many other surprises on the list, other than maybe Bobby Crosby’s poor rating. Overall, the Pirates will likely lose about three wins on defense from 2009 to 2010. With the offense kicking the win total up to 67, that drops us back down to 64 expected wins in 2010. Awesome.