Optimizing the Pirates’ lineup

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The Pirates lineup for their first spring training game will likely resemble the one that John Russell will scribble on his card on April 5th. Here is that lineup, with the DH replaced by a league average hitting pitcher. I included each player’s CHONE projection.

 

OBP SLG wOBA
1 Andrew McCutchen 0.365 0.445 0.357
2 Akinori Iwamura 0.365 0.393 0.340
3 Garrett Jones 0.324 0.476 0.346
4 Ryan Doumit 0.321 0.441 0.331
5 Lastings Milledge 0.345 0.423 0.338
6 Jeff Clement 0.342 0.460 0.350
7 Andy LaRoche 0.343 0.408 0.334
8 Ronny Cedeno 0.303 0.389 0.304
9 Pitcher 0.179 0.176 0.163
Runs per game 4.427

 

I have no major issues with this lineup, but I thought I would try to optimize it based on The Book. Here is what I came up with.

 

OBP SLG wOBA
1 Akinori Iwamura 0.365 0.393 0.340
2 Andrew McCutchen 0.365 0.445 0.357
3 Garrett Jones 0.324 0.476 0.346
4 Jeff Clement 0.342 0.460 0.350
5 Lastings Milledge 0.345 0.423 0.338
6 Ryan Doumit 0.321 0.441 0.331
7 Andy LaRoche 0.343 0.408 0.334
8 Ronny Cedeno 0.303 0.389 0.304
9 Pitcher 0.179 0.176 0.163
Runs per game 4.456

 

I flipped McCutchen and Iwamura at the top of the order. I am a fan of keeping McCutchen at the top of the order long-term, but it makes sense to drop him a spot in this situation. He and Iwamura are projected to have identical on-base percentages, so it makes sense to put the lower-power option in the leadoff spot. Clement is projected to be the best hitter not named McCutchen in 2010, so I slid him into the cleanup position. Jones’ low on-base, high power combination make him a nice player for the three spot. The 5 – 8 hitters are essentially placed from best to worst. I put Doumit sixth because I think he is likely to outperform his projection, when healthy. It is clear from the runs per game numbers (which come from the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool) that the batting order matters very little. Over a full season, we are talking about maybe five runs. It is very insignificant. Here is the ideal lineup, according to the lineup optimizer.

 

OBP SLG wOBA
1 Andrew McCutchen 0.365 0.445 0.357
2 Jeff Clement 0.342 0.460 0.350
3 Andy LaRoche 0.343 0.408 0.334
4 Garrett Jones 0.324 0.476 0.346
5 Lastings Milledge 0.345 0.423 0.338
6 Ryan Doumit 0.321 0.441 0.331
7 Ronny Cedeno 0.303 0.389 0.304
8 Pitcher 0.179 0.176 0.163
9 Akinori Iwamura 0.365 0.393 0.340
Runs per game 4.628

 

Nothing all that surprising here, as the pitcher always ends up in the eighth spot. I had not previously considered batting Iwamura last, but it makes a bit of sense, as the ideal nine hitter is a high on-base guy with essentially no power. This optimized lineup would be expected to score 4.628 runs. That is a relatively significant difference in a vacuum, but it is probably not enough to worry about in real life.

Pirates plate discipline in 2009

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Patience is an issue that the Pirates have seemed to struggle with at the plate for years. Unfortunately, it did not get much better in 2009. Here are the Pirate position players, along with their O-Swing%. O-Swing% is simply the percentage of balls outside the strike zone in which a batter swings. League average was 25.01% in 2009. The players still with the team are in bold.

 

Name O-Swing%
Jeff Salazar 12.80%
Eric Hinske 18.00%
Ramon Vazquez 18.20%
Steve Pearce 20.40%
Andrew McCutchen 20.70%
Adam LaRoche 21.90%
Nate McLouth 22.20%
Andy LaRoche 25.00%
AVERAGE 25.10%
Jason Jaramillo 25.80%
Nyjer Morgan 26.20%
Craig Monroe 26.40%
Neil Walker 27.30%
Luis Cruz 27.60%
Brandon Moss 28.60%
Delwyn Young 29.20%
Garrett Jones 29.30%
Freddy Sanchez 30.10%
Lastings Milledge 30.80%
Brian Bixler 31.20%
Ryan Doumit 33.20%
Jack Wilson 33.40%
Ronny Cedeno 37.00%
Robinzon Diaz 37.40%

 

I would expect Andrew McCutchen and maybe Andy LaRoche to improve some with experience. Ramon Vazquez’s patient approach is essentially the only positive thing about his 2009 performance, as it helped propel him to a respectable .335 on-base percentage. I was surprised to see Steve Pearce so high on the list. His major league O-Swing% has steadily dropped over the past three years (29.3% in 2007, 24.8% in 2008), indicating that he might be improving his plate discipline. Among the below average players, it is not encouraging to see how often Garrett Jones, Lastings Milledge and Ryan Doumit expanded the zone. Jones could struggle in his sophomore season if pitchers hesitate to challenge him. Milledge’s free-swinging ways are a continuation of his career trend. His lack of patience was the only reservation I had about the Nyjer Morgan trade at the time, and it has not improved in his short time with the Pirates. Doumit has always had a low walk rate, relying on high BABIP’s to stay productive over his career. If the Pirates are going to be successful with this group moving forward, it would be nice if they became a bit more patient at the plate. As a team, they were tied for 24th in baseball in 2009, at 26.8%. That was a slight regression from the 25.4% that the team posted in 2008. Here are the numbers in graphical form, if you prefer to view them visually.

 

Is Bob Nutting pocketing profits?

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Bob Nutting announces the firing of Dave Littlefield - Andy Starnes, Post-Gazette
Bob Nutting announces the firing of Dave Littlefield - Andy Starnes, Post-Gazette
First of all, a disclaimer. There will be no new information in this post. Everything I am about to share has been written somewhere else, either in print or on the internet. I do not bring up this topic very often in my writing. Frankly, it bores me. But I find it somewhat annoying that anytime Bob Nutting is mentioned, the “fact” that he is making a large profit as the Pirates owner is casually added. As if it is a proven truth.
Clearly, he is making significant money from the team. … He has to be in the business for the profits and nothing else.
If you don’t trust Nutting, that’s fine. I’m not sure I completely trust him myself. But let’s knock him for things we know for certain (such as approving the Matt Morris trade), not for commonly accepted “realities” that are unsubstantiated and, honestly, don’t make a whole lot of sense. Let’s look at some actual facts, as reported by Dejan Kovacevic. Bob Nutting “is believed to have a controlling interest [in the Pirates] approaching three-quarters.” That means that for any money that Nutting receives, a proportional amount has to go to the minority owners. If Nutting simply slips profits into his back pocket, he is quickly going to find himself in the middle of a lawsuit. According to both Nutting and the minority owners, nobody is receiving any cash.
The Pirates maintain that neither Nutting, who is believed to have a controlling interest approaching three-quarters, nor anyone in the ownership group has been paid dividends related to the past two years. Neither has Nutting drawn any salary. Not all of the minority owners are pleased, apparently: One minority owner, who declined to be identified, described a meeting several months ago in which the minority owners were denied distributions to cover taxes they owed on the team. Some owners promptly left the room.
So either Nutting is telling the truth, or the unidentified minority owner is also lying to Dejan. I suppose that is possible. All parties with ownership stakes could have gotten together to fabricate the story of a group of owners angrily walking out of a meeting. Well, some other people would need to be in on the scheme. Major League Baseball has access to the Pirates’ books, so the league can ensure that revenue sharing funds are used appropriately.  Let’s hear from commissioner Bud Selig.
“I know how painful this is for the fans in Pittsburgh,” Selig said by phone from his office in Milwaukee. “But, in watching this management team the past couple of years and how aggressive they’ve been and how they’re restocking the farm system, that’s where they had to start. And if they weren’t doing it, you’d hear from me.” … Has Selig ever considered a full investigation of the Pirates’ finances to ensure those funds are being spent appropriately? “No, not with the Pirates or anybody else. Because we’ve shown it,” Selig said. “The economic myth that they’re putting it in their pocket is just not right.”
Of course, Frank Coonelly used to work with Selig. We already know that Coonelly left his high profile job in the Commissioner’s Office to help Nutting milk his cash cow, because that, and not successfully turning around a floundering franchise, is the kind of thing one strives to add to his résumé (sarcasm alert!). So it makes sense that Selig would help his old friend by ignoring Nutting’s intentional destruction of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Of course, the Players Association also has access to each team’s financial records. Union head Michael Weiner probably does not approve of the Pirates’ low payroll.
“If a club legitimately trying to compete has a plan that calls for them to be at a particularly low payroll for a given year as part of a longer-range plan to compete the following year or years after that, management should have that flexibility,” Weiner said.
I guess Weiner is also in on the elaborate plot. I don’t expect anyone to mindlessly accept the front office’s claim that the team made only $11 million in profit the past two years. But the idea that Nutting is pocketing profits, and that the minority owners, Major League Baseball and the Players Union are all keeping his secret just doesn’t add up. The major league payroll is low, because the team is made up of mostly young players. It will probably remain low for several years, but by 2014, the Pirates will probably need some financial flexibility. Wasting money now, simply to appease the frustrated fan base, just does not benefit the franchise.

Mental toughness

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Just wanted to share a quick link today. This is an interesting interview with Bernie Holliday, whom the Pirates hired away from West Point as a mental conditioning coordinator in January.
How can game pressure be simulated? Bernie Holliday: We’re introducing technology into the process. We will create personalized visualization scripts for the players. They’ll come up with the way they want to play the game, put together the scenario they want to experience and the way they want to perform in that scenario, and we put it on an iPod or iPhone and they can listen to it and rehearse it. They practice that visualization as we increase distractions, increase pressure. First they do it before going to bed, then before a workout, then they find ways to build it into momentary pauses within a ballgame. We’ve got crowd noise. We’ll get them physically exhausted and simulate the level of intensity your body experiences in a big moment.
It will be fascinating to follow Holliday’s work during his time with the Pirates. Hat tip to thegreatchris.