2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Top 50 Tiered Rankings Version 4.0

Something occurred to me recently.

According to my social media memories, 15 years ago around this time I was where most aspiring prospects writers are today. I was attending games to give my reports online, aspiring to be a baseball writer. I was beginning the process of interviewing players, and I wasn’t nearly as good as I am today. Most of all, I largely trusted the teams and the national prospect writers to know more than I did about the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system — and baseball development in general.

This is my 16th season running Pirates Prospects. In that time, I’ve spent countless hours interviewing players, watching games, and putting together prospect rankings. It wasn’t until 2020 that I realized my baseball knowledge was on par to work inside the game at a director level.

It wasn’t until this year that I really started to embrace writing as an authority on the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system, with no peer in the media realm, and with merely a differing opinion to those who work inside the organization.

One big thing I’ve been focusing on this year is building a better ranking system for prospects — along with providing independent accountability toward the Pirates rebuild, to serve as an authoritative voice representing the interests of the fans.

The latter gets the page views, regardless of whether the Pirates are doing well or failing. As long as you speak the truth, people will read it. That’s rule number one in this industry.

The prospect rankings are more of a passion project. It’s a way for me to develop my own methodology. This is the fourth version of my 2024 rankings, and each update has resulted in a methodology adjustment behind the scenes.

Version 4.0 offers the biggest adjustment to date, which will inevitably have these rankings going against the consensus for some players.

Here are some of the adjustments that have gone into the rankings. If you want to check out the rankings themselves, head over to the Rankings page, or scroll down in this article for the list. Patreon supporters get all of the individual player writeups, as a thank you for their support throughout the year that made this project possible. I wouldn’t be able to watch baseball for a living, literally every single day, without the support of readers.

The Big Change in Version 4.0

Prospects are traditionally graded on a 20-80 scale, and my own scale is detailed below. The problem with this is that there’s no clear system to determine how a 50-grade starting pitcher should compare to a 50-grade shortstop or a 50-grade catcher. There are also different paths to a 50-grade at each position, with a mixture of offense and defense.

Every player has a finite amount of energy in a game, in a week, in a month, in a season, and in a career. Every position player receives 4-5 plate appearances per game, which requires X amount of energy. Each defensive position requires a different amount of energy. The harder the position, the less energy you have at the plate — or in the field, for those players who prioritize offense over anything else.

For the latest rankings, I created 30 different position profiles, based on how much projected energy would be needed to play those positions.

The most challenging is a two-way catcher. The energy needed to catch a complete game, manage and strategize with a pitcher, and still have energy left over to hit at an above-average rate is the most difficult thing in this game.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are positions like middle relievers, designated hitters, and defensive corner outfielders. These positions either carry less of an energy expulsion, or fewer leverage situations than a two-way catcher or shortstop or center fielder would be expected to manage.

Every player was graded based on where I project them to likely end up in the Majors. A lot of rankings will be fudged by dreaming about the best possibilities. “If Second Baseman A can be a plus defensive center fielder and continue to hit like they did as an amateur…” is the dream that leads to elite prospect grades. My focus was aiming for more realistic combos.

I think we’re seeing the downside to the traditional approach with Oneil Cruz. For years, the Pirates, their fans, and every prospect outlet (including my own rankings) have been following the script of “If Cruz can play shortstop, with the potential of his bat, then he will be a star.” That got repeated so often that the Pirates essentially had to wait for him to show that he can’t play shortstop in the Majors.

Cruz is currently in the early days of living up to the hype surrounding his bat, while showing that he can’t play shortstop without an alarming amount of errors.

The dream of a two-way shortstop has been repeated so often to justify the maximum prospect ranking for Cruz. It leaves the Pirates in a situation where fans get angry at Cruz for not being that two-way player, when he could be an elite performer at another position.

Would Cruz be a better hitter if he played left field? Possibly. Would he provide better defensive value with fewer errors at an easier position? Likely.

The Pirates have a trend of trying all of their best hitting prospects at the most difficult positions, and you can’t fault them for trying to maximize value. Not everyone can be a designated hitter or play a traditionally offense-first position.

I wanted to get away from those dream scenarios in this latest update. In my rankings, I isolated where each player profiled best defensively in the Majors, while still being able to hit. I’m not going into the details of this positional grading system. After all, I have competition in the local prospect scene today, which wasn’t the case 15 years ago.

I was satisfied with the initial results. I’ll likely be making some adjustments to this methodology by the time Version 5.0 of the rankings is released, but the current approach is good enough to publish with the new update.

As for the other changes that have been made this year…

Current/Future Value System

Players are traditionally graded based on their Future Value. I’ve been identifying the present day value of players, to give an idea of how long the development process could take. The grades follow the system below, with a projected 5-10 point rise per year for each player, depending on the player.

10 – Pure athletes with very little baseball experience, starting their careers in rookie ball.
15 – Players who can perform across a season at the rookie levels, with regular playing time.
20 – The talent needed to play regularly in A-ball, at either level. High-A is usually a stronger indicator of this value.
25 – Double-A talent.
30 – The bottom half of Triple-A talent.
35 – The top half of Triple-A talent, and where the “Quad-A” label begins.
40 – The replacement level players at the MLB level. These are the players who unfairly get labeled “Quad A”.
45 – MLB bench/bullpen options who can occasionally start, and provide long-term positive or neutral value in the majors.
50 – Average MLB starters, or elite relievers.
55 – Above-average MLB starters, position or pitcher.
60 – Plus MLB performers. Players can be graded higher than this, but this is the threshold when players start becoming the best in the game.

Development Bonus

If I’ve learned one thing in my years of talking with prospects, it’s that some players don’t have the capacity to improve their game. Other players have the ability to make positive changes rapidly.

I have the ability to easily identify which players have the capacity to make change, and which players can make changes rapidly.

I’ve assigned bonus points for those players, based on proven positive adjustments. Every player is ranked by their future potential, but every player needs to adjust their approach between amateur ball and the Majors to reach that potential. It only makes sense to grade players based on their ability to positively develop.

Like the positional grades, I’m not going into detail on who got the development bonus points. I will say that only six players in the top 30 didn’t get points. By comparison, there were only seven players in the 51-71 ranks who received this development bonus.

My rankings are heavily skewed toward the players who have a proven ability to improve their game.

2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Top 50 Tiered Rankings Version 4.0

The biggest change this year is that I’ve been selling out to the Tiered Ranking system. I’ve been using this as a secondary ranking for years, but it’s really the best way to see the amount of talent in the system.

The 13th ranked prospect in this update has very little difference from the 7th ranked prospect. The 14th ranked prospect has very little difference from the 23rd ranked prospect. There’s not a huge gap between 13 and 14, but there’s a massive gap between 13 and 23. The tiers show how many prospects the Pirates have at each talent level.

Without further ado, below is Version 4.0 of my Top 50 Tiered Rankings for the Pittsburgh Pirates system.

TIER ONE: POTENTIAL BEST IN THE GAME

The best prospect in the system is right-hander Bubba Chandler, who was drafted in the third round in 2021 and signed to an over-slot deal. Chandler is graded as a top 50 prospect, but he really should be in the top 25, if not higher. Some scouts have him as a future closer, but I think he’s shown enough to be considered a future plus starter. That’s due to rapid improvements he’s made across his game in the last year. He’s the clear number one in the system, and could arrive for a look by the end of the 2024 season.

BUBBA CHANDLER, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS

CV: 35 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2027 | Trend: UP

Stats: 3.70 ERA, 94:36 K/BB, 80.1 IP (AA); 1.50 ERA, 23:4 K/BB, 18 IP (AAA)

Scouting Notes: 95-97, 98 Four-Seam; 84-86 Slider; 86-88 Changeup; 79-81 Curveball

Development: Chandler has made a lot of strides in the last year with his secondary stuff. He improved his slider to a swing-and-miss pitch in 2023, and made a lot of strides with his changeup this year, while adding a curveball to the mix. He has the makings of four above-average or better offerings, and they’re not far off from those grades in the present. The most encouraging sign has been an improvement to his control this year.

Future Outlook: He’s one of the most athletic pitchers in the system, with a growing arsenal and improved control that could make him a top of the rotation starter in the majors. There’s a good chance that Chandler is pitching in the rotation full-time by next summer, with a slight chance he arrives early for a preview at the end of this season.

TIER TWO: TOP 100 PROSPECTS

I don’t follow the other 29 systems, so I’m not an authority over where players should rank in the top 100 overall prospects. In my opinion, there are two other players who should absolutely be top 100 guys, and not just on the fringe at the end of the list. The Pirates have one of these guys in the top 100 lists, while another one is still undervalued by the national rankers.

KONNOR GRIFFIN, SS/CF, FCL PIRATES

CV: 20 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029 | Trend: NEW

Stats: N/A

Scouting Notes: 70 Run; 70 Arm; 70 Defense at CF; 60 Power; 50 Hit

Development: The Pirates took Griffin with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft, and he could be the highest upside guy from his class. He’s got tools for days, with a chance to be a power/speed player with plus defense up the middle. The only question is whether he can hit enough to maximize the other tools. He improved his swing this spring, working on timing issues from the longer levers of his 6′ 4″ frame. This was also the first year he had a single-sport focus.

Future Outlook: Griffin profiles as a shortstop or center fielder, with the ability to be an elite defender at either spot. His path to the majors might be quicker and easier as a center fielder, where he profiles as a potential Gold Glover. His hit ability and the development of his plus raw power will have a bigger impact on his progression.

THOMAS HARRINGTON, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS

CV: 30 | FV: 55 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2027 | Trend: UP

Stats: 2.24 ERA, 74:10 K/BB, 68.1 IP (AA); 3.09 ERA, 17:3 K/BB, 23.1 IP (AAA)

Scouting Notes: 91-93, 95 Four-Seam; 80-83 Sweeper; 77-82 Curveball; 83-87 Slider; 85-87 Changeup

Development: Harrington has moved quickly through the system, after being drafted 36th overall in 2022. He doesn’t have elite velocity, but has a mix of above-average or better secondary stuff, with some of the best control and command in the system. He works quickly, changing speeds and locations to keep hitters guessing, while showing a calm demeanor on the mound in all situations. He’s also a hard worker, committed at all times to improving his game, with the added value that he’s helped several other pitchers with their stuff. That shows a certain mastery of his craft that is underrated.

Future Outlook: If the dream with Chandler is a Paul Skenes type starter led by elite velocity, then the dream with Harrington is a Mitch Keller type starter. He’s not going to blow hitters away with elite stuff, but he knows how to pitch and has plenty of weapons in his arsenal. He could be a number 2-3 starter, and should be in the rotation full-time by mid-2025.

TIER THREE: TOP 100 CANDIDATES

There are three other prospects who I feel should receive top 100 consideration, sneaking in the back of the lists. Two of the players in this tier get that consideration already, though they’ve seen their values drop a bit this year. The other is new to the system, and I’m probably higher on him than most — both in the system rankings and with top 100 consideration.

NICK YORKE, 2B/OF, INDIANAPOLIS

CV: 35 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: NEW

Stats: .251/.325/.366, 4 HR, 8 SB, 197 PA (AA); .332/.413/.487, 6 HR, 9 SB, 260 PA (AAA)

Scouting Notes: 55 Hit; 45 Power; 50 Fielder at 2B; 45 Run; 45 Arm

Development: Yorke has made a lot of adjustments with his swing over the last year, and may have found something that clicked this year. He lowered his hands and focused on a line-drive approach to the middle of the field, escaping a pull-heavy approach. Since the change in Double-A, he’s moved up to Triple-A and has put up numbers that could raise his hit tool grade to plus potential. He’s got the potential to play average second base defense, but has been getting work in center field, and has also worked in left field.

Future Outlook: A first rounder in 2020, Yorke was acquired by the Pirates at the deadline for Quinn Priester. At the time of the trade, he was in the early stages of his positive development after the swing change. He has only continued putting up exceptional numbers in Triple-A with the Pirates. He’s in his age-22 season, and will either serve as a backup plan to Nick Gonzales at second base, or could break into the majors with the Pirates in the outfield. If he keeps hitting like his half-season in Triple-A, the Pirates will have to find a position for him in the Majors at some point in 2025.

TERMARR JOHNSON, 2B, ALTOONA

CV: 25 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT

Stats: .238/.372/.385, 13 HR, 20 SB, 487 PA (A+)

Scouting Notes: 60 Hit; 50+ Power; 55 Run; 50 Fielding at 2B; 40 Arm

Development: One of the best pure hitters from the 2022 draft, Johnson has shown off his pure hitting abilities in his brief work against upper level pitchers. He’s spent most of his young pro career developing his power bat in the lower levels, hitting 31 homers over the last two seasons. He controls the strike zone well, limiting strikeouts and getting on base at a high rate.

Future Outlook: The Pirates just called Johnson up to Double-A, where he’ll get a bigger challenge against more advanced arms. He showed good swing decisions and adjustments in the box during his brief time in Major League Spring Training this year, and should be able to handle the jump to the higher level. He might even benefit from the jump due to seeing more pitches to attack with his plus hit tool than in A-ball. He will likely need at least a year in the upper levels, and could be on pace for a 2026 arrival.

BRAXTON ASHCRAFT, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS

CV: 30 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: DOWN

Stats: 3.69 ERA, 63:8 K/BB, 53.2 IP (AA); 0.49 ERA, 13:4 K/BB, 18.1 IP (AAA)

Scouting Notes: 95-97, 98 Four-Seam; 89-91 Slider; 88-90 Changeup; 83-86 Curveball

Development: Ashcraft went down with Tommy John after the 2021 season, and returned with better control and improved velocity last year. He mostly works off his fastball/slider combo, but his curveball has looked like another swing and miss offering. His changeup has been in development this year, after the previous version caused discomfort. He’s currently on the injured list, and will need to stay healthy to remain a future starter. He’s got the stuff to be an elite late-inning reliever if the rotation doesn’t work out.

Future Outlook: If the dream for Chandler is Skenes-lite, and the dream for Harrington is Keller, then the dream for Ashcraft is a Jared Jones comp. Like Jones, Ashcraft could have success in the majors working off a pair of plus pitches with his fastball and slider. His curve shows promise as a third pitch. Ashcraft could pitch today in the majors as a reliever, if healthy, but the Pirates continue developing him as a starter. He should be in the mix for a spot in the majors at some point in 2025.

TIER FOUR: FUTURE STARTERS

The players in this tier have the best chance at starting in the majors. Not all of them will work out as starters, but they’re more likely to reach the majors and stick in a lesser role, even if they “bust” from the starter projection.

HUNTER BARCO, LHP, ALTOONA

CV: 25 | FV: 55 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2028 | Trend: FLAT

Stats: 3.34 ERA, 77:22 K/BB, 62 IP (A+); 2.25 ERA, 6:0 K/BB, 4 IP (AA)

Scouting Notes: 92-95, 96 Fastball; 85-87, 88 Cutter, 80-83 Slider; 84-88 Forkball; Changeup in Development

Development: Barco was drafted in the second round in 2022 while he was recovering from Tommy John. He made his pro debut in Bradenton in 2023. His development in 2024 has taken him to a new level. The lefty has improved his velocity from low-90s to mid-90s, hitting 96. He’s moved from a low-80s gyro slider to an upper-80s harder cutter, which has generated more swing and miss. He also developed a mid-80s forkball style changeup. He still uses the gyro slider and has been developing a true changeup for a fifth pitch. With improved control from being more in line to the plate this year, Barco has made all of the adjustments needed to be considered a future Major League starter, and more than a back-of-the-rotation arm.

Future Outlook: After one start in Altoona, Barco went on the injured list with a shin injury. That shouldn’t stop the progress he’s made on the mound this season. The Pirates have no shortage of starting pitching prospects, but Barco is definitely in the future mix. As a lefty, he should play up at PNC Park. He could arrive in 2026, after a year pitching in the upper levels.

ZANDER MUETH, RHP, BRADENTON

CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: FLAT

Stats: 1.58 ERA, 56:26 K/BB, 51.1 IP (Rk); 5.91 ERA, 13:16 K/BB, 10.2 IP (A)

Scouting Notes: 92-95, 97 Sinker; 83-86 Slider; 84-88 Changeup; 86-88 Cutter

Development: Mueth stands at 6′ 6″, 205 pounds, but throws from a low three quarters arm slot that adds deception to his pitches. He’s still able to get his sinking fastball up to 97, consistently sitting in the 93-94 MPH range. His control has been a problem in his pro debut, but he’s only 19, and will likely be working on adjustments following his first full professional season. His secondary stuff shows promise, with a slider that generates swing and miss, and a good feel for a changeup.

Future Outlook: Drafted 67th overall in 2023, Mueth is in the early stages of his career, but looking promising in his debut. He’s one of the best arms in the lower levels, and if his control improves, he could emerge as one of the top prospects in the system one day. For now, expect him to work on his control in A-ball in 2025, with a chance to move quickly through the system if he locks that down. He’s projected as a future starter, and could improve to an above-average or better future value with improvements to his control.

BILLY COOK, OF/1B, INDIANAPOLIS

CV: 35 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: NEW

Stats: .255/.365/.392, 1 HR, 4 SB, 63 PA (AA); .287/.379/.494, 13 HR, 18 SB, 377 PA (AAA)

Scouting Notes: 60 Power; 60 Run; 60 Arm; 50 Fielder at 1B; 45 Hit

Development: Cook has made a lot of strides over the last two seasons. He hit 24 homers and stole 30 bases in Double-A in 2023. He’s continued tapping into his combo of plus raw power and plus speed in Triple-A this year, while maintaining a lower strikeout rate and improving his walk rate. He can play all over the field, getting time at first, second, and all three outfield spots. He profiles as an average defender anywhere, due to his plus arm and athleticism.

Future Outlook: The Pirates added Cook in a rare prospect-for-prospect trade at the recent deadline, dealing from their depth in pitching to address their need for hitting. He has maintained his improved hitting since joining the Pirates, and is looking like a guy who could emerge as an average starter with a lot of potential positions. He’ll be in his age 26 season next year, but doesn’t seem to have much left to prove in the minors, and could be up by the end of the 2024 season.

MIKE BURROWS, RHP, INDIANAPOLIS

CV: 30 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2026 | Trend: UP

Stats: 4.00 ERA, 20:4 K/BB, 18 IP (AAA)

Scouting Notes: 92-95, 96 Four-Seam; 86-89 Slider; 84-87 Changeup; 77-80 Curveball

Development: Burrows returned from Tommy John surgery this year, and has resumed his progression from pre-surgery. He improved his control in 2022, and has maintained that improvement in his return to Triple-A this year. He’s developed a slider and a changeup which are both swing and miss pitches, and also throws an extreme spin curveball. He’s got four average or better offerings, with a fastball that can get up to 96-97.

Future Outlook: Heading into the 2023 season, Burrows looked like a rotation depth option. He went down early in the year with Tommy John. Since returning to Triple-A, he’s resumed looking like a future starter in the big leagues. His innings are limited this year, but he could be a rotation option at some point in 2025, with a chance to stick long-term in some Major League rotation, due to the advancements to his slider and changeup.