Baseball is a mental game. Every single moment in the game starts with a pitcher delivering a pitch to a batter. Prior to that pitch, the pitcher and the catcher strategize what pitch to throw. The batter, not knowing what is actually coming, has to react in a split-second. The pitcher and catcher, knowing that the batter has a tendency to react better to some pitches and locations, need to plan a pitch that will make it impossible for the batter to react successfully. The batter gets three chances to fail before he is retired, though he can extend his life with foul balls. The pitcher gets four chances, to go with the element of surprise. The mental game advantage is clearly in favor of the pitcher.
If you get a pitcher who can maintain his initial mental advantage on the mound for hours, all bets are off. A position player needs to split his mental focus between offense and defense, while a pitcher only needs to focus on staying ahead of hitters. This is no easy task, but it’s ultimately the key to winning championships. This is why the Los Angeles Dodgers just committed over a billion dollars to two pitchers. This is why the highest paid players in the game are pitchers. It’s also why I feel the Pirates made the best pick in the draft when they selected Paul Skenes. The strength of their farm system right now is pitching, and that’s a positive for their future, so long as they can develop pitchers who can maintain their advantage on the mound in the majors.
Every pitch can be simplified to a decision making process. Pitches thrown in the zone have a simple decision for the hitter: Take the pitch for a strike, or swing and take your chances putting it into play. A line drive falls in for a hit about 70% of the time, whereas a fly ball lands about 11-12% of the time, and a ground ball rolls through a quarter of the time. There’s a significant advantage to waiting on a pitch that you can drive. These are typically inside the zone, though not every pitch thrown in the zone can be driven. If the pitch is thrown outside of the zone, the obvious answer is for the hitter to take it for a ball. This ignores that some hitters won’t have this discipline in the moment. Undisciplined hitters will naturally have higher chase rates. The best pitchers tend to be the ones who can generate above-average chase along with below-average contact on chase pitches. Obviously, if a pitcher can limit contact inside the zone, that is elite. As baseball is a mental game, the plate discipline stats that show decision-making results are the best starting point when evaluating any player. At any level those stats are available.
THIS WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
The Dodgers have committed $1 billion to two pitchers this offseason, while the Pirates have committed eight whole figures to two starting pitchers for the 2024 season. The additions of Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez aren’t bad, but they aren’t enough. The flaw I see with the Pirates is they lack the comfortability with the level of risk needed to win in the current MLB economy. I touched on that yesterday, and will have a column on this tomorrow.
FEATURES
**MLB Rule Changes Include a Quicker Pitch Clock With Runners on Base. I looked at how this could impact a few pitchers on the Pirates roster.
**Williams: Curtate and Prolate Players in Baseball Development. I’ve been working on theories of baseball player development, after spending 15 years following things up close. This column taps into Geometry and Calculus to explain how I see the player development task at hand for each individual organization.
**Williams: The Battle of the First Overall Picks. The NBA has been my own sports escape this offseason. Recently I had a chance to watch the battle of two first overall picks from the NBA draft, and it had me thinking about the right approach for the Pirates to take with Henry Davis and Paul Skenes.
**Williams: Are the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates a Winner Yet? I looked at the ZiPS projections to see where the Pirates stand after their additions so far.
TRANSACTIONS
**Pirates Designate Andre Jackson For Assignment. The right-hander plans to play in Japan, and I wrote about how that will be a good move for him. The Pirates lose a pitcher who could add a few productive innings at any point during a bullpen game.
**Minor Moves: Pirates Agree With Jake Lamb, Add Two International Players. Lamb and Seth Beer now give the Pirates two backup corner infield options in Triple-A, with Rowdy Tellez in the majors at first base.
**Andrew McCutchen Returns to the Pirates. This move was expected, but a good one. Not only is McCutchen the face of the modern-day Pirates franchise, he’s also still one of their more productive bats in the lineup.
**Pirates Sign LHP Martin Perez. The Pirates have had success the last few years getting reliable innings out of lefty starters. They went back to this strategy by signing Martin Perez yesterday.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
You know what we need to do? We need to build a fucking team. We need ’em tough, morally flexible, and young enough so they can carry this franchise 10-12 years.
-Deadpool
SONG OF THE DAY
If you grew up with holes in your zapatos
You’d celebrate the minute you was havin’ dough
I’m like, “Fuck critics, you can kiss my whole asshole!
If you don’t like my lyrics, you can press fast forward”
