Too much is asked of young pitchers. Last year, Quinn Priester made eight starts in the majors. He didn’t pitch fewer than four innings in any of those starts, and I don’t think a four inning maximum was ever in place. We expect a former first round pick like Priester to be a starting pitcher in the majors. The ideal implementation of that role includes throwing 6+ innings per start, 32 times per season, for around 200 innings of work. The hope is 5+ innings for 30 starts, giving around 150 innings. But when a rookie first enters the majors, it’s a massive assumption to project him instantly to have success across 5-6 innings every night.
The Pirates have added two starting pitchers this offseason. They just agreed with left-handed pitcher Martin Perez yesterday, and that came not long after acquiring another lefty, Marco Gonzales, in a salary dump deal from the Braves. Both of these pitchers will be asked to provide one thing above all: Innings. Perez threw 141 last year, and 196 the year prior. Gonzales was limited to 50 last year, due to a forearm injury. He threw 183 in 2022 and 143 in 2021. At the least, the Pirates would hope that both lefties can provide reliable, replacement-level or better starts through the trade deadline. There is some hope that Perez can rediscover the form that led to a 4 WAR in 2022, or that Gonzales can go back to his 3.5 WAR days in 2018-19. Outside of these two, the Pirates only have Mitch Keller as a guy who can handle not only a full start in the majors, but a full season of starts.
The value for the Pirates will come from the younger pitchers like Priester. He’s joined by Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, and Roansy Contreras. Ortiz made 15 starts last year, putting up a 4.93 ERA as a starter, compared to a 3.95 ERA out of the bullpen. Ortiz might only be a reliever. He might be a multi-inning reliever. The Pirates didn’t get success from him in the rotation, but they could have found that by working him into big league action in shorter outings, then expanding his innings. Falter is a very similar story from the left side, looking better as a reliever in the majors. Contreras had success in the rotation across 95 innings in 2022, but couldn’t repeat that in 2023. Contreras had a lot of starts where he showed he can get through an extended MLB appearance, and that was true in 2023. He’s yet to show he can handle the season flow of a Major League starter. Then there’s Priester, who has the potential to get there, but is being asked to arrive as a 5-6+ inning, 30-32 start pitcher from day one. That’s too much to ask right away. The Pirates have potential with this group, and that potential is probably easier reached by easing them into the MLB starting workload over the long-term, rather than expecting 150+ innings from any of them in 2024.
TODAY ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
Yesterday I kicked off this daily article with a new “three paragraphs then I’m done” approach. The goal is to provide authentic daily thoughts on the team, allowing me to put the longer effort into features and columns, which started today…
**Williams: Are the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates a Winner Yet? I looked at the ZiPS projections to see where the Pirates stand after their additions so far.
**Pirates Sign LHP Martin Perez. The Pirates have had success the last few years getting reliable innings out of lefty starters. They went back to this strategy by signing Martin Perez yesterday.
THOUGHT PROCESS OF THE DAY
What would be the negatives if Quinn Priester had individual success being limited to 3-4 innings per start for the entire 2024 season?
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“What’s the use you learning to do right, when it’s troublesome to do right and ain’t no trouble to do wrong, and the wages is just the same?”
-Mark Twain, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn
SONG OF THE DAY
You know there ain’t no rest for the wicked
Money don’t grow on trees
I got bills to pay, I got mouths to feed
There ain’t nothing in this world for free
Oh no I can’t slow down, I can’t hold back
Though you know I wish I could
“Oh no there ain’t no rest for the wicked
Until we close our eyes for good”
