The Pittsburgh Pirates have been tanking.
Call it what you want, but the reality is that this team didn’t put much effort into adding to their MLB club in the previous three seasons. The result is that the Pirates have been the worst team in baseball from 2020-2022.
In that time, they’ve been building up their minor league system with prospects who could help the next winning team in Pittsburgh. The depth they’ve stacked up has made them one of the top farm systems in the game, and started to spill over to the majors last summer. A bigger wave is expected to arrive this year.
Pirates General Manager Ben Cherington responded with an offseason that was arguably busier than the previous three combined. The Pirates added Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen, Austin Hedges, Rich Hill, Ji-Man Choi, Vince Velasquez, Connor Joe, Jarlin Garcia, and a few other depth options for the big league club.
Every year I do a ZiPS-based analysis of the Pirates, using my playing time projections and the ZiPS WAR projections. This year, I expanded the process a bit, looking at the 20th and 80th percentile projections for hitters and pitchers, while also looking at the injury risks.
This year, I’m going to be breaking down the entire team based on the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile projections from ZiPS. I’ll give a projection for each position, and a team projection at the end. The outcome will still be the same: A win total much higher than ZiPS is projecting, but with 20th and 80th percentile outcomes.
The goal, as always, is to get a better understanding of how this team might win, and not necessarily how much this team might win.
But, everyone loves a pre-season win projection, so let’s see how things are looking on the other side of the tank.
Each of the individual player figures below comes from their ZiPS projection. I’ve noted the playing time I used for each player in the outlooks.
CATCHER
Projected Starter: Austin Hedges (WAR: 0.0 / 0.8 / 1.5, PA: 318)
Projected Backup: Kevin Plawecki (WAR: -0.4 / 0.1 / 0.6, PA: 189)
Top Prospect: Endy Rodriguez (WAR: 1.3 / 2.6 / 4.0, PA: 520)
2023 Outlook: ZiPS loves Endy Rodriguez. If we wanted to jack this projection up artificially, we could use his 520 plate appearances to fill most of the catching duties. The reality is that the Pirates signed Hedges, Plawecki, and retained Tyler Heineman and Jason Delay. I’m not going to project Endy for more than half a season here, though I do think he will be ready earlier. The Pirates have good depth if you consider that they have four catchers with at least replacement-level 50th percentile projections. They’ll only need that group until Rodriguez arrives, at which point Hedges will turn into a great backup and the depth will only improve. I projected Hedges for 300 plate appearances. I gave Plawecki 100, and gave 250 to Rodriguez. I’m not projecting Henry Davis in the majors this year, but if we’re talking 80th percentiles, it’s not out of the question that he arrives by the end of the season. This position will be defense-only for the start of the year, but will have a lot of exciting options as the year progresses.
2023 Projection: 0.4 / 2.1 / 3.7
Positional Depth: +1.5
FIRST BASE
Projected Starter: Ji-Man Choi (WAR: -0.2 / 0.9 / 1.8, PA: 396)
Projected Backup: Carlos Santana (WAR: 0.3 / 1.4 / 2.6, PA: 516)
Top Prospect: Malcom Nunez (WAR: -1.0 / 0.2 / 1.4, PA: 483)
2023 Outlook: It’s difficult to project this position with how it will intersect with designated hitter and the outfield. Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana will both get work at first base, though Santana will get more work as the designated hitter. I think that Connor Joe will get into this mix as well to spare both first basemen. I didn’t have a full ZiPS projection for him, but his 50th percentile was a 1.1 WAR. That makes him a slight upgrade over Choi. I gave Choi his full projection, and about 250 plate appearances here to Santana — which is about 50 fewer than he received at the position last year. If Joe factors into this mix, it would likely be at the expense of Choi, and would give the Pirates a slight boost in the projections below — which only included Choi and Santana. Malcom Nunez is a wild card, but I’m not projecting him to force his way onto the roster like Endy Rodriguez at catcher. I could see Jared Triolo having a better shot at forcing his way into first base time, where he’s already been getting work in Spring Training.
2023 Projection: 0.0 / 1.6 / 3.1
Positional Depth: +1
SECOND BASE
Projected Starter: Rodolfo Castro (WAR: -0.5 / 0.8 / 2.1, PA: 530)
Projected Backup: Ji-Hwan Bae (WAR: 0.2 / 1.2 / 2.3, PA: 473)
Top Prospect: Nick Gonzales (WAR: 0.1 / 0.8 / 1.6, PA: 338)
2023 Outlook: My projection is that Rodolfo Castro will get the Opening Day job, with Ji-Hwan Bae likely to spend most of the season in a super utility role. I’ve got Castro projected for 300 plate appearances, Bae for 200 (with more coming later), and Tucupita Marcano for 50 plate appearances. The last one is almost a depth tax on the position, as ZiPS doesn’t project Marcano well. I’m optimistic about the adjustments that Nick Gonzales made to his approach at the plate last year, and I love his work ethic. I could see him being the best option by mid-season. I gave him 100 plate appearances for a more conservative projection, but he could be a big boost to this team.
2023 Projection: -0.3 / 1.1 / 2.7
Positional Depth: +0.5
SHORTSTOP
Projected Starter: Oneil Cruz (WAR: 1.3 / 2.7 / 4.3, PA: 536)
Projected Backup: Chris Owings (WAR: -0.3 / 0.3 / 1.1, PA: 285)
Top Prospect: Liover Peguero (WAR: -0.8 / 0.3 / 1.5, PA: 526)
2023 Outlook: ZiPS has Oneil Cruz with 536 plate appearances. I gave him a slight bump to 550, and gave 150 plate appearances to Chris Owings, who I project as the backup middle infielder. I don’t think Liover Peguero arrives this year, and if he does, I think he’s unlikely to move Cruz off the position. This spot is largely going to be boom or bust with Cruz.
2023 Projection: 1.2 / 2.9 / 5.0
Positional Depth: +0.25
THIRD BASE
Projected Starter: Ke’Bryan Hayes (WAR: 1.6 / 2.7 / 3.7, PA: 514)
Projected Backup: Rodolfo Castro (WAR: -0.5 / 0.8 / 2.1, PA: 530)
Top Prospect: Jared Triolo (WAR: 0.0 / 1.0 / 1.8, PA: 477)
2023 Outlook: Just like with shortstop, this position will be determined by one of the core members of the Pirates. ZiPS has Ke’Bryan Hayes with 514 plate appearances, and I bumped him up to 550, since he got 560 in his first full season. There’s another bump the Pirates could get if Hayes finds a way to hit for more power. I’ve got Castro for 50 plate appearances as the backup here. I also gave Jared Triolo 100 plate appearances, just because I think he gets them somewhere on the roster. The only way he replaces Hayes is via injury. Triolo would be more likely to get time at other positions, and he can play everywhere. If Hayes were to go down with an injury, Triolo would be able to soften the blow — though I don’t think he would be able to save the chances of the Pirates’ season.
2023 Projection: 1.7 / 3.2 / 4.5
Positional Depth: +0.5
OUTFIELD
Projected Starters:
Bryan Reynolds (WAR: 2.1 / 3.5 / 5.2, PA: 625)
Jack Suwinski (WAR: -0.4 / 1.0 / 2.5, PA: 549)
Connor Joe (WAR: N/A / 1.8 / N/A, PA: 420)
Projected Backup:
Andrew McCutchen (WAR: -0.3 / 0.7 / 1.9, PA: 482)
Ji-Hwan Bae (WAR: 0.2 / 1.2 / 2.3, PA: 473)
Ryan Vilade (WAR: -0.7 / 0.3 / 1.5, PA: 507)
Top Prospect: Travis Swaggerty (WAR: 0.1 / 1.3 / 2.2, PA: 455)
2023 Outlook: Buckle in, because I’m putting this entire group together, and as you’ll see in the projection below, there’s a lot of boom or bust to this group. I gave Bryan Reynolds his full 625 plate appearances. There’s a chance that he’s the only outfielder with a WAR over 1.0. There is upside from Jack Suwinski, who I gave 500 plate appearances — an amount lower than ZiPS. I modeled Connor Joe’s high/low after Suwinski in the overall projections and gave him 400 plate appearances. The Pirates will hope that one of these two can emerge as a starter complement to Reynolds. I think that Joe ends up getting time at first base, but will spend more time in the outfield. I’ve got Andrew McCutchen for 200 plate appearances as an outfielder, which is slightly below his 2022 totals. I gave 100 plate appearances here to Ji-Hwan Bae, who got a few games in center field at the end of last season. The remaining time went to Ryan Vilade, who has very similar projections to Cal Mitchell and other prospect options in the minors. It would boost the projections to have Travis Swaggerty take those plate appearances, but I’m not projecting that. ZiPS does heavily favor Swaggerty over Mitchell, Vilade, Matt Gorski, and Canaan Smith-Njigba. The Pirates will hope that one of these guys can step up as a starter for the long-term, but I’ve got their production as bonus this year. As you can see below, there’s a lot of bust potential with this group beyond Reynolds.
2023 Projection: 1.1 / 6.8 / 11.7
Positional Depth: +0.5
DESIGNATED HITTER
Projected Starter: Andrew McCutchen (WAR: -0.3 / 0.7 / 1.9, PA: 482)
Projected Backup: Carlos Santana (WAR: 0.3 / 1.4 / 2.6, PA: 516)
Top Prospect: Mason Martin (WAR: -1.6 / -0.3 / 1.2, PA: 508)
2023 Outlook: I’ve got McCutchen with 350 plate appearances here, and Santana with 300. That gives them both 550 plate appearances on the season with the 1B/OF mix factored in. I’m not projecting any MLB time for Mason Martin, but am including him here just to say that I’d like to see him take on a DH role in the minors with Malcom Nunez at first base.
2023 Projection: 0.0 / 1.3 / 2.9
Positional Depth: 0
BENCH
2023 Outlook: I had about 100 plate appearances left, and gave them to Ji-Hwan Bae, giving him 400 total.
2023 Projection: 0.0 / 0.3 / 0.5
STARTING ROTATION
Projected Starters:
Mitch Keller (WAR: 0.6 / 1.5 / 2.5, IP: 140)
Roansy Contreras (WAR: 0.7 / 1.7 / 2.5, IP: 122.3)
JT Brubaker (WAR: 0.3 / 1.2 / 2.0, IP: 121.3)
Rich Hill (WAR: 0.1 / 0.9 / 1.5, IP: 114)
Vince Velasquez (WAR: -0.4 / 0.2 / 0.8, IP: 81.3)
Projected Backups:
Luis Ortiz (WAR: 0.2 / 1.0 / 1.8, IP: 111.3)
Johan Oviedo (WAR: 0.1 / 1.1 / 1.8, IP: 113)
Quinn Priester (WAR: 0.5 / 1.1 / 1.8, IP: 103.3)
Mike Burrows (WAR: 0.5 / 1.3 / 2.1, IP: 102.7)
Top Prospect: Quinn Priester (WAR: 0.5 / 1.1 / 1.8, IP: 103.3)
2023 Outlook: The Pirates don’t have a standout starter. What they do have is a rotation that is potentially nine deep with pitchers who can put up positive value. The worst options, according to ZiPS, are the two free agents the Pirates brought in — Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. I kept both of their projected innings low, due to the age for Hill and uncertainty surrounding Velasquez. I think it’s more likely he moves to the bullpen with so much depth behind him. Here’s where I’ll go out on a limb: I’m going to project this rotation for 850 innings. Last year’s group had 767, and the league average for team rotations was 850. I think the depth and quality of this rotation is strong enough to reach that mark, especially with Roansy Contreras entering his first full season, and Mitch Keller seemingly hitting a new gear. JT Brubaker has exceeded his ZiPS innings projections in each of the last two years. There’s a lot of boom or bust potential with this group, much like the outfield group. I like the depth a lot better with this group, led by top prospects Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, and Mike Burrows.
2023 Projection: 1.8 / 8.1 / 13.7
Positional Depth: +2
BULLPEN
Projected Closer: David Bednar (WAR: 0.5 / 1.3 / 2.0, IP: 58.3)
Projected Bullpen:
Robert Stephenson (WAR: -0.1 / 0.5 / 1.0, IP: 56.3)
Duane Underwood Jr. (WAR: -0.3 / 0.3 / 0.8, IP: 65.7)
Jarlin Garcia (WAR: N/A / -0.1 / N/A, IP: 63.3)
Wil Crowe (WAR: -0.4 / 0.4 / 1.0, IP: 90.7)
Jose Hernandez (WAR: N/A / -0.2 / N/A, IP: 50.3)
Yerry De Los Santos (WAR: -0.2 / 0.3 / 0.8, IP: 43.7)
Colin Holderman (WAR: -0.3 / 0.1 / 0.4, IP: 39.3)
Yohan Ramirez (WAR: -0.6 / -0.1 / 0.4, IP: 57.3)
Dauri Moreta (WAR: N/A / 0.1 / N/A, IP: 60.0)
2023 Outlook: The Pirates are relying on innings from Robert Stephenson, Duane Underwood Jr., and Wil Crowe, along with Jarlin Garcia on the left side. If that group can stay healthy, then this could be a nice sleeper group around David Bednar. If that group struggles or deals with injuries, then the Pirates have a lot of wild cards behind them. Yerry De Los Santos is the guy who stands out among the rest for me, but I factored all of the relievers above into the mix. I also added in Johan Oviedo from the rotation group, since that projection was factoring him in as more of a swingman. The end result is that this is an area where the Pirates could lose value, and it would take a lot to go right for them to gain significant value from this position. The depth here becomes stronger if the Pirates convert some of their minor league rotation depth into relievers. That could speed up the path for guys like Kyle Nicolas, Carmen Mlodzinski, or Cody Bolton.
2023 Projection: -1.5 / 3.7 / 8.5
Positional Depth: +1
2023 PITTSBURGH PIRATES
A replacement level team is considered to have 48 wins. Using that as a baseline, here are the projected win totals, based on the percentile projections above.
20th Percentile: 52 wins
50th Percentile: 79 wins
80th Percentile: 104 wins
Obviously those extremes are going to produce extreme outcomes. If everything goes wrong for the Pirates, they are a historically bad team. Likewise, they would need everything to go right in order to be one of the best teams in the league.
The 50th percentile projection — which is the one I normally use for this analysis — has them at 79 wins. I don’t think that is unreasonable, and I could see them trending higher.
What I like about this team is the depth. There aren’t a lot of star players with impact potential, but there aren’t many players with bust potential.
The Pirates addressed their weakest spots this offseason. They added at first base and designated hitter, where even the 20th percentile replacement level results at each position would be a combined upgrade of several wins over last year’s abysmal results. They’ve added a few catching options, and will get a boost from Endy Rodriguez, who I tried to downplay in this analysis.
The prospect depth, in general, is under-represented here. This projection includes the following playing time from prospects:
Endy Rodriguez – 250 PA
Ji-Hwan Bae – 400 PA
Nick Gonzales – 100 PA
Jared Triolo – 100 PA
Travis Swaggerty – 0 PA
Quinn Priester – 103 IP
Luis Ortiz – 111 IP
Mike Burrows – 0 IP
Rodriguez could end up with more playing time, which would massively increase the projections. I might be giving too much playing time to Bae, although I think his versatility, speed, and plate patience will get him a lot of time in the majors. I projected Priester and Ortiz as the depth starters, though you could interchange Burrows into the mix without much of an adjustment. In fact, Burrows rates the highest of the three. A lot of the projections I made with prospects ended up lowering the overall win projections.
There’s some irony that Pirates Prospects is advising cautious skepticism on the optimistic ZiPS projections about the Pirates prospects.
If the prospects arrive and perform as ZiPS expected, then I think this team is very likely to end up pushing close to a winning season.
The strength of this team could be the rotation. That would go a long way toward drawing innings away from one of the potential weak areas of this team in the bullpen. The prospect depth would play huge here, with Priester, Ortiz, and Burrows all giving the Pirates long-term options. I think the Pirates are six-strong without those guys, and would prefer Oviedo over Velasquez in the rotation.
The Pirates have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the last few years, and a big reason for this was that they simply weren’t focusing on adding at the MLB level. That changed this offseason, with a lot of veteran additions paving the way for a lot of prospects in Triple-A.
I think this team ends up closer to a winning record than most people are expecting. They have a great mix of reliable veterans, young MLB producers with impact upside, and a lot of age 25 and under players who could produce positive value in the majors.
Heading into this process, I was thinking that 75 wins sounded like a conservative estimate for the 2023 Pirates.
The prospects from Indianapolis might make the 79 win projection sound a bit conservative.
